One New York Life

Arizona Cardinals +6.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers: Do you really want to lay 6.5 points on a guy who has, to this point, never played a good post-season game and who only won the Super Bowl because the officiating staff was on the take? Do you really want to be staring at Larry Fitzgerald scoring his third touchdown and wondering how in the world you thought betting against him was a good idea? Maybe two weeks have dulled the memory of him doing absolutely ridiculous things to catch touchdowns throughout the playoffs. Maybe we’re also forgetting that, even if the Steelers double-team him with their best corner and best safety that they STILL have do deal with Boldin. If Ben Roethlisberger plays the type of games as he’s wont to do in the playoffs, the Cardinals will be up 14 before the half. The Steelers are built to play tough it out, crush the run defense. Unfortunately, in all the games they’ve played this year, they’ve never showed they can stop a Greatest Show On Turf-esque two-headed receiving monster. Warner’s having one last blessed run on his way to Canton. And you can’t bet against God and puppies. The Cardinals shock the world. Cardinals outright, Over 36.

PS: As you read this, I’m on my way to Atlantic City where I’ll be watching this game in a 15-person suite after hopefully having not lost all my money on Saturday. In other news, Atlantic City doesn’t have sportsbooks; which I was really bummed to discover. Only in Jersey can casinos and racebooks (horse-race betting) be legal, but the mob still has enough pull in the state government to keep sports’ betting their exclusive domain. Amazing. And Ms. L still trots out the occasional argument that we should live here.

W/W/W – Cardinals +4 over Eagles, 32-25, Cardinals outright, Over 47: Donovan McNabb, should he leave the Eagles off this game, leaves behind an interesting legacy. 1-4 in conference championships, 0-1 after completely falling apart in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl, the Rush Limbaugh incident, not knowing about ties, and getting a crazy amount of love from player analysts while not so much love from non-player analysts. Kurt Warner, on the other hand, is somehow taking a 2nd team to his 3rd Super Bowl and likely earned himself a bid to Canton just by beating the Eagles. Warner remains one of the great mysteries of my life — how did so many teams miss him, to the point where he had to spend time in Arena and World Leagues before an NFL team finally realized he had an arm? In retrospect, I don’t understand how the Eagles were favored as much as they were here. The game went pretty much exactly as I expected — save for the Eagles trying to rattle Warner with cheap shots late in the 1st half (including an inexplicable, five seconds after Warner released the ball knockdown which somehow didn’t result in an ejection) and later playing an almost-perfect 2nd half. Speaking of legacies, Andy Reid’s will be interesting, too. If this is his last season, he’s going to leave the Eagles with a 97-62 regular season record and a 10-7 postseason record. He’s destined to join the Marty Schottenheimer “Guys Who Are Remembered As Worse Than They Actually Were” Club — not to be confused with Phil Jackson “Guys Who Are Remembered As Incredible Coaches Even Though They Had The Best Player In The Game” Club (charter member – Tony Dungy).
Joe: Arizona outright. Over 47: W/W/W
Cam: Arizona +4. Under 47: L/W/L

W/L/L – Steelers -6 over Ravens, 23-14, Ravens +6, Under 34: As the unanimous decision for this game, it was clear this wasn’t going to be the result. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ trend of winning huge games despite terrible play by their quarterback remains intact. Roethlisberger played a bad game, but luckily, the Magical Rookie Train finally went too far off the tracks for the defense to yank it back — much to the joy of the NFL, I’m sure.
Joe: Baltimore +6 Under 34: W/L/L
Cam: Baltimore +6 Under 34: W/L/L

Standings
Straight Up
Cam: 1-1 (5-5)
Tom: 2-0 (5-5)
Joe: 2-0 (3-7)

Against The Spread
Cam: 1-1 (5-5)
Tom: 1-1 (5-5)
Joe: 1-1 (1-9)

Over/Under
Cam: 0-2 (4-6)
Joe: 1-1 (4-6)
Tom: 1-1 (3-7)

Is it time to consider something might be wrong with the system when 3 Wild Cards get through? It’s probably not good when your seeding system creates more favorable match-ups for the five and six seed then it does for your one and two seeds. Regardless, here we are, staring down the barrel a possible Pennsylvania Bowl.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 at Arizona Cardinals (47): This game will totally and completely be won or lost on Arizona’s offensive line. If they protect Warner, Asante Samuel can only cover one guy. There is so many things wrong with betting the Eagles here. They looked better than they actually are last week, they’re a road favorite in the NFC Championship Game in a building that sold out in six minutes, and they’re still coached by Andy Reid. Can’t you see Arizona jumping out to early lead after Warner goes deep on the first drive, Andy Reid trying to respond deep, and the Arizona secondary pulling in an interception and converting it to a 14-point swing? I think the end of the universe might actually be up on us. Cardinals outright, Over 47.
Joe: Arizona outright. Over 47.
Cam: Arizona +4. Under 47.

(Ed note: So you’re saying there’s a chance!)

Baltimore Ravens +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers (34): Like many sports’ clichees, the “it’s really hard to beat a team 3 times in a season” saying turned out to be wrong. It turns out, in 17 chances to sweep a season in the playoffs, teams have been successful 11 times. It’s an easy mistake to make being that it’s only like 65% of the time. That’s hardly even passing in most cases. Regardless, I see absolutely no reason, save for B-Roth being concussed out of the game in the first quarter, that the Ravens don’t lose again here. On the other hand, the Steelers put on a show last week and there’s no reason to assume that this is going to be any version of a shoot-out. Combine that with snowy and cold home Pittsburgh and you have a recipe for a classic, low-scoring playoff game. Ravens +6, Under 34.
Joe: Baltimore +6 Under 34.
Cam: Baltimore +6 Under 34.

L/L/W – Ravens +3 over Titans, 13-10, Titans cover. Under 34.5: Full disclosure: I missed this game. I was out and about in Boston and we didn’t get home until later. So… I’ll assume it’s what I should have expected. That is — Kerry Collins again getting his soul wholly owned by the Ravens Defense. Although, I’d like to congratulate the NFL on being heavy-handed in their assists this year. They’re really up front about who they want to move through the playoffs.
Joe: Titans cover. Over 34.5.: L/L/L
Cam: Baltimore outright. Under 34.5.: W/W/W

W/W/L – Cardinals +10 over Panthers, 33-13, Cardinals outright: I can’t take much credit for this pick because it wasn’t matching up the teams and finding a favorable match-up. It just fit with the theme of this season and the relative craziness that’s gone on in Saturday night games. That said, should any of us really be surprised Jake Delhomme handed in an epically bad performance in a big game?
Joe: Panthers cover. Over 48.5.: L/L/L
Cam: Cardinals +10. Under 48.5.: L/W/W

L/W/W – Eagles +4 over Giants, 23-11, Eagles +4, Under 40: So, I was right about the game plan. Brian Westbrook only gained 36 yards this entire game. Unfortunately, McNabb was somewhat up to the challenge, picking apart the secondary on third downs. One 3rd quarter drive featured conversions on 3rd and 20 and 3rd and 10. If you’d told me that the Giants defense was going to shut down Westbrook and grab two picks from McNabb, I would have assumed the Giants easily won. The offense, on the other hand, had nothing. The Eagles defense simply let the Giants’ wide-outs run whatever routes they needed to in single coverage and had the safeties ready to stop Jacobs when he broke through the line. They gave up multiple double-digit runs to Jacobs but just sat back and waited for Eli to pass. Also, the Giants decided to have a guy who can’t make field goals consistently over 40 yards try to kick field goals over 40 yards in to the wind. They should have just went for it and saved the 10 yards of field position. This goes back to what I said about the Dolphins last week — When something works all season long, why do you change it in the playoffs? I expect the Giants PR machine to go in to hyper-drive over the next few weeks about how “everyone deserves a second chance.”
Joe: Giants cover. Over 40: L/L/L
Cam: Giants cover. Over 40: L/L/L

W/W/L – Steelers -6 over Chargers, 35-24, Steelers cover, Under 38: Can we pencil in B-Roth as the toughest quarterback to come in to the league in recent memory? No real shock here — the Chargers weren’t good enough to beat the Colts without an assist from the officiating crew. Good game for next week.
Joe: Chargers +6. Over 38: W/L/W
Cam: Chargers outright. Under 38: L/L/L

Standings
Straight Up
Cam: 1-3 (4-4)
Tom: 2-2 (3-5)
Joe: 1-3 (1-7)

Against The Spread
Cam: 2-2 (4-4)
Tom: 3-1 (4-4)
Joe: 0-4 (0-8)

Over/Under
Cam: 2-2 (4-4)
Joe: 1-3 (3-5)
Tom: 2-2 (2-6)

Saturday
Baltimore Ravens +3 at Tennessee Titans (34.5): This could be the ugliest offensive game in the history of the NFL — and that includes games played in blizzards or hurricanes. Neither quarterback is particularly good and the last time Kerry Collins played the Ravens in the postseason, he turned in to a little girl. I don’t know if there’s reasonable number low enough such that I wouldn’t take the under. This smells like 20-10 with the Ravens collecting one pick-six. Titans cover. Under 34.5.

Joe: Titans cover. Over 34.5.
Cam: Baltimore outright. Under 34.5.

Arizona Cardinals +10 at Carolina Panthers (48.5): The only reason to pick Arizona in this game is because the only people picking Arizona in this game are people who live in Arizona. I know the theory here is that the Cardinals haven’t played well on the east coast all season. But, I find it odd that this game opened at 10 points after the Cardinals played the Panthers to a 4-point game with Anquan Boldin just coming back from a broken face. Is it possible public opinion is so far to the other side (like it was with nearly every game last week) that the Cardinals come out of nowhere and pick the 2-seed off? I think it might be. Cardinals outright. Over 48.5.

Joe: Panthers cover. Over 48.5.
Cam: Cardinals +10. Under 48.5.

Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles +4 at New York Giants (40): There are two rules in play here. 1) Never expect a high scoring game in the Meadowlands in January and 2) never expect more than 3 point cover when the NFC East plays an important game. When the Eagles played the Giants in Week 14, Westbrook destroyed the Giants as badly as I’ve seen them destroyed all year and the Eagles STILL only scored 20 points. The strategy here is going to be “Justin Tuck and Antonio Pierce track Brian Westbrook and force Andy Reid’s pass plays and Donovan McNabb’s arm to beat us.” Unfortunately, the Eagles are going to be attacking the same way. They’re not going to pay any attention to a deep threat until they have to and if Hixon decides to start dropping perfectly thrown 50-yard touchdown strikes again it’s going to be a long afternoon. The only thing I’m confident about in this game is the under. Eagles +4. Under 40.

Joe: Giants cover. Over 40.
Cam: Giants cover. Over 40.

San Diego Chargers +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers (38): I know that it’s going to become en vogue to overrate the Chargers after their “impressive” showing against the Colts last week. I’m pretty sure the Steelers’ defense is going to use Sproles as a toothpick. Unless of course they get another assist by the officiating crew. We’re supposed to believe that a team who struggled to score on a bad defense is going to walk in to freezing cold Pittsburgh and score on that defense? Troy Pomoalu will be picking pieces of Sproles out of his hair until next Thursday. Steelers cover. Under 38.

Joe: Chargers +6. Over 38.
Cam: Chargers outright. Under 38.

Results posted as Straight Up/Against The Spread/Over-under. I’d like to use this space to talk about redemption and how I took advantage of the second season. I’d like to… but, yeah not so much. My only saving grace is that I didn’t get shut-out in picks… just in over/unders.

L/L/L – Cardinals +1 over Falcons, 30-24, Falcons cover, Under 51: Matt Ryan threw an interception on his first drive of this game and I realized that I put a bit too much stock in a rookie quarterback. On top of that, the Falcons’ pass rush was not quite enough to give Kurt Warner the yips. I feel like this game wasn’t even as close as the final score indicated, but congrats to Hulse for nailing the parlay. But, hey, at least Cardinals/Panthers will be easy to pick.
Joe – Falcons cover. Over 51: L/L/W
Cam – Falcons cover. Under 51: L/L/L

L/L/L – Chargers +1 over Colts, 23-17, Colts cover, Over 51: The NFL could have simply sent a memo at the beginning of the game saying “we want the Chargers to go through” rather then making me waste my time with that overtime farce. 3 free first down guys? Really? The Valuev/Holyfield fight was less silly. Interesting bit of drama in this match-up as Rivers will get a playoff chance to prove he’s the best in his quarterback class. This is presuming of course that B-Roth isn’t still cross-eyed.
Joe – Colts cover. Over 51.: L/L/L
Cam – Chargers outright. Over 51.: W/W/L

L/L/L – Ravens -3 over Dolphins, 27-9, Dolphins outright, over 37.5 – It never fails to amaze me when teams do one something very well all season long, then they get to the playoffs and totally abandon that. The Dolphins got to this point by not asking Chad Pennington to do things he couldn’t. On Sunday, they kept making him throw deep. Unsurprisingly, every pass he threw over 30 yards got picked off. I just don’t understand it. Chad Pennington shouldn’t air the ball in to double coverage against bad defenses. Against good defenses? Please. The Dolphins started panicking down 13-3. Now, the Ravens Defense is playing Kerry Collins in the postseason again. I’ve seen that movie before.
Joe – Dolphins outright. Under 37.5.: L/L/W
Cam – Dolphins +3. Under 37.5.: W/L/W

W/W/L – Eagles -3 over Vikings, 26-14, Eagles cover, Over 41.5: Pretty ugly game. But it involved Tavaris Jackson so I should have realized. This is exactly the match-up I didn’t want for the Giants next week. The strategy’s going to have to be to stack the box, double Westbrook, and make Donovan McNabb’s arm beat you. I hope Stevie Spags wants some extra zeroes on his paycheck next year.
Joe – Vikings outright. Over 41.5.: L/L/L
Cam – Eagles cover. Under 41.5.: W/W/W

Standings
Straight Up
Cam: 3-1
Tom: 1-3
Joe: 0-4

Against The Spread
Cam: 2-2
Tom: 1-3
Joe: 0-4

Over/Under
Cam: 2-2
Joe: 2-2
Tom: 0-4

ATS/OU Total
Cam: 4-4
Joe: 2-6
Tom: 1-7

I got summarily destroyed by both Joe (162) and Bootleg (165) so badly that Cam dropped me off the standings as of Week 15. I fared a little better in the single game suicide spread pick, with the final standings coming in at:

Joe: 10-7
Tom: 8-8-1
Aaron: 6-11

Those guys call the score in their playoff picks. I find that impossible unless you’re Plaxico Burress calling the Super Bowl. For my own self-interest and to convince myself I’m better than this regular season indicated, I’m putting myself against them for the playoffs.

Also a quick note: Beer Snob returns next week with the final two Bahamian Beers. Hopefully that will be followed by six weeks of the Michelob Craft Sampler if I can find it in Manhattan and then nine weeks of what I wrote down as my top ten. The problem with that may be that two of them are draft only, three are seasonal, one is a friend’s microbrew, and one is a seasonal brew that I’ve never seen sold in New York City. Stay tuned.

Saturday
Atlanta Falcons -1 at Arizona Cardinals (51): At the very least, this should be a fun game to watch. I’m going to join the cadre of folks who believe that Arizona folding up shop and mailing in the last month of the season is going to hurt them here. I honestly can’t name one player on the Falcons other than Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. I know nothing about their defense. What I do know is that the Cardinals are a 9-7 team with 6 wins in their awful division and exactly 1 win against a playoff team (Dolphins in Week 2). Most damning — they have yet to prove they can stop a good running back and I think Michael Turner’s ready for a national coming out party. Falcons cover. Under 51.

Joe: Falcons cover. Over 51.
Cam: Falcons cover. Under 51.

Indianapolis Colts -1 at San Diego Chargers (51): When I looked at this line first thing on Monday morning, it was a pick ‘em. By 11pm, it had moved to Indy -1. This means that everyone in world had the exact same thought… Peyton Manning and company vs. Norv Turner and a crew that folds up shop and heads home at the first sign of adversity? For the record, a group of friends is heading out to Vegas for the World Series of Beer Pong IV and this was the only bet I lined up for the weekend. To use a Simmonsism — can you picture yourself having money on this game while the cameras panning the Chargers sideline and you’re seeing LDT sitting on the bench with his helmet on and his arms crossed and Norv Turner looking forlorn and confused? And you realize you just bet against Peyton Manning? Colts cover. Over 51.

Joe: Colts cover. Over 51.
Cam: Chargers outright. Over 51.

Sunday
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Miami Dolphins (37.5): I’m happy for Chad Pennington. I really am. He got a raw deal in New York and the media is going to spend a couple of months soaking the team for allowing him to choose where he wanted to go rather than banishing him to Minnesota in a trade. This, mind you, is the same media that said Pennington has been great to the Jets but it’s time for him to move on and the Jets should have the decency to let him go where he wants. I just can’t do the new coach/new quarterback on the road thing… especially not TWICE in the same Wild Card round. The Dolphins are a 14-1 dog to win the AFC and, honestly, I don’t hate that bet. Besides, there has to be at least one upset, right? Dolphins outright. Over 37.5.

Joe: Dolphins outright. Under 37.5.
Cam: Dolphins +3. Under 37.5.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Minnesota Vikings (41.5): As of next season, I will be getting MUCH mileage out of the fact Minnesota’s football team will be playing in a dome and their baseball team will be playing in an open-air stadium getting snowed out in April and September. Joking aside, I don’t know what to do with this game. I’m terrified to face the Eagles next week as a Giant fan. Normally I would go with the best player on the field (Westbrook) but is Reid/McNabb enough to counteract that? I think no. Fun fact: Bill Simmons talked about the Metrodome this week as one of the few stadiums left in the league where there’s still a big homefield advantage. According to Mike Francesa, there are still 3,000 – 5,000 seats available 2 days before a Vikings playoff game. Advantage Eagles. Eagles cover. Over 41.5.

Joe: Vikings outright. Over 41.5.
Cam: Eagles cover. Under 41.5.

Two 1-point spreads and two 3-point spreads on Wild Card weekend? Three road favorites? No two-touchdown dogs? I may not leave the couch for 48 hours.

W/W – Dolphins +3 over Jets, 24-17, Dolphins outright: Shea Stadium’s cats had their revenge on the Mets and the Jets this season. See what happens when 100 feral cats get together and hand out curses? Regardless, Jet fans have already gone crazy — calling for firing Mangini (already done), hiring Bill Cowher (which isn’t going to happen) and trading for Matt Cassell. First off — Cowher is never going to coach for the Jets because he just isn’t what they need. Cowher was given time by the Steelers to do what he needed to do… the Jets won’t give him that. Secondly — Cassell is not what you want. Next year is going to be a wash with a new coach, a new system, and a new quarterback… don’t bring in a re-tread. Thirdly — you shouldn’t have fired Mangini. Don’t you think you should have given the guy a year or two with a quarterback he actually wanted instead of one hired for marketing purposes? He didn’t want Pennington and he surely didn’t want Brett Favre. Mangini’s going to be out of work for like… an hour. Also, I called the “out of nowhere” playoff team for the 2nd consecutive year. Go me!

W/W – Falcons -14.5 over Rams, 31-27, Rams +14.5: Well, one of the two “out of nowhere” playoff teams.

L/L – Texans -3 over Bears, 31-24, Bears outright: I did know that the Texans are an absurdly good home team but I thought the Bears would want it a little more and get it done when they had to. Little did I know it would be the Bears defense that fell apart in a game where Kyle Orton showed up and threw 22-37 for 244 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. An unimpressed Matt Schaub threw 27-36 for 328 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no interceptions. I did notice that as soon as this game went to final, Tom Coughlin threw in the towel and put all defensive replacements on the field in Minnesota.

W/W – Packers -11 over Lions, 31-21, Lions +11: If you had gone to Vegas in 2006 and asked a casino if you could get the following prop bet — that one team would go 16-0 in the regular season and then a team would go 0-16 the very next year… what kind of odds could you have gotten? 1,000,000 to 1?

L/W – Vikings -6.5 over Giants, 20-19, Giants outright: When David Carr threw a touchdown pass in the 2nd half after Eli failed to throw one in the 1st half, I immediately texted Hulse with “Quarterback Controversey!!!” It occurs to me the Giants might be able to get a draft pick for David Carr. He’s another guy that would be good in the right system — one that isn’t “expansion team in its first five seasons.”

L/W – Panthers -3 over Saints, 33-31, Saints outright: I don’t know why I didn’t hedge my bets here and take the Saints with the points. I guess I thought the NFC South homefield rule would be enough to carry them and it almost was.

W/L, Steelers -10 over Browns, 31-0, Browns +10: Romeo should probably get another year to coach with the new quarterback. Unless you are absolutely sure the guy you’re hiring will have the right system for Brady Quinn, you’re basically signing up for next year to be another loser. At the very least, I do hope that Romeo will get occassionally “I’m Sorry” checks from Braylon Edwards’s hands. So, should we assume that Romeo will be Mangini’s coordinator next year or that Mangini will be Romeo’s? Or is the better bet “which guy will Jim Fassel hire to be his defensive coordinator”?

W/L – Patriots -6.5 over Bills, 13-0, Bills +6.5: I did expect the Bills to at least score in this game. That explosion you hear from the West is Cam guffawing while Bill Simmons explodes. BTW: are we back to thinking that Brady’s a system quarterback now that Cassell won 11 games or do we have to wait until next year after some team overpays for him and he falls apart? Speaking of 11 games… while it does suck that the Patriots lost a playoff slot to an 8-8 team, let’s keep it in a little bit of perspective. The AFC East played the NFC West (combined record: 22-42) and the AFC West (combined record: 23-41) while the AFC West played the AFC East (38-26) and NFC South (40-24), so let’s settle down with calling it a travesty of justice. You can make an argument that this is the scheduling system working out the way it should.

L/W – Raiders +13 over Bucs, 31-24, Raiders +13: One of two collapses/chokes that is getting no press because of the Favre/Jets choke/collapse. Fortunately for Jon Gruden, I guess. It could be time to move on to a quarterback under 35… just sayin.

L/L – Colts +3 over Titans, 23-0, Titans cover: Young! Sorgi! The match-up you demanded.

W/W – Eagles -1.5 over Cowboys, 44-6, Eagles cover: To the reasonable, intellegent Cowboy fan, I’d say to settle down. You went 9-7 in a season where your starting QB couldn’t play 3 games and your primary runningback was gimpy for the last 5 games. Remember that this only Tony Romo’s 2nd season as a full-time starter and it’s a little early to start throwing around the “choker” label. Don’t do to Romo what NY did to Eli Manning and kill him for moderately successful seasons. To the rest of you I say “HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAH!!! HAHAHAHAA!!!! KARMA SUCKS DON’T IT, BITCHES!”

W/L – Ravens -12 over Jaguars, 27-7: Nothing hugely shocking here. I figured it’d be a blowout. The guess was more about how big the blowout would be.

W/W – Bengals -3 over Chiefs, 16-6, Bengals cover: When your starting quarterback needs Tommy John surgery, your year is a wash. It just is.

L/T – Niners -3 over Redskins, 27-24, Redskins outright: Good game by the Redskins. I look forward to the Redskins new head coach and another year of bleh.

W/W – Cardinals -5 over Seahawks, 34-21, Cardinals cover: The Cardinals game is not the pick of the week next week like I thought it would be.

W/L – Chargers -8.5 over Broncos, 52-21, Broncos +8.5: THIS will be the bet of the week next week. Early line has the Colts/Chargers game as a pick’em. Thanks, Norv, for blowing out the Broncos and moving the spread. The Broncos, by the way, are another team whose epic choke is whitewashed by Favre’s choke. Mike Shanahan will amazingly live to fight another day.

Five Good Spreads
5 points – Jaguars +12 over Ravens – L
4 points – Giants +6.5 over Vikings – W
3 points – Bears +3 over Texans – L
2 points – Eagles -1.5 over Cowboys – W
1 point – Broncos +8.5 over Chargers – L

Final Standings
Straight Up: 10-6 (148-107-1)
Spread: 9-6-1 (134-115-7)
Point Pool: 7/15 (138/255 – .541), Total record (47-37) – Not sure if I like this format. One or two bad weeks crushes you a bit too much. Then again… this was just a bad year across the board for me.

Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Jets: From possible 1-seed to this. The Jets play this game at 4:15 after knowing if the Patriots have taken the division or not. And the New York papers, as usual, have been bored out of their minds this week — to the point where they’re suggesting Jet fans go to the stadium to root for Chad Pennington and against the Jets in order to get Eric Mangini fired. Mind you, Jets fans couldn’t get Pennington out of town quickly enough and signed his ticket. Mind you, Pennington’s arm strength is what it is because he came back from injury too soon and “heroically” played through a bad rotator cuff. That’s what blew out his shoulder and that’s what killed his arms. He’s the poster child for why athletes should never do that. The fans don’t care the next season. Now, Chad gets to come back to this stadium and fan base that gave him nothing but grief and ran him out of town for Kellen Clemens and Brett Favre? And he can end their season? This rates about a 15 on Simmons’s Vengeance Scale. On top of that, Pennington generally doesn’t play well in inclement weather — unfortunately it’s supposed to be in the 50s this Sunday in the Meadowlands. The lesson here, as always, is that God hates the Jets. Dolphins outright.

St. Louis Rams +14.5 at Atlanta Falcons: As soon as this game is in grasp, the starters will go out. That isn’t a recipe for a 3-score cover. Rams +14.5

Chicago Bears +3 at Houston Texans: Can you win a game as exciting as last week’s Bears/Packers game, have four teams that you need to lose actually lose, and THEN drop next week’s game making all that destiny stuff meaningless? I don’t think so. Bears outright.

Detroit Lions +11 at Packers: I have to assume the Lions at least make a game out of it, right? Lions +11.

New York Giants +6.5 at Minnesota Vikings: I understand most of the world expects the Giants to lay down this game. I just don’t expect them to. Most of the team credits last year’s Super Bowl win with playing the Patriots hard in Week 17 and not laying down. Most of the guys in the Parcells’ tree don’t believe in playing half-speed. I expect Jacobs to rest, but the Giants have owned the Vikings in the last decade. Giants outright.

Carolina Panthers -3 at New Orleans Saints: Tough game to call here. The Saints are going to play to get 400 yards passing for Drew Brees. The Panthers are playing for the 2-seed. A loss here with a Bucs Falcons win knocks Carolina all the way down to the 5-seed. Take the over. Saints outright.

Cleveland Browns +10 at Pittsburgh Steelers: Again, Steelers are playing for the bye-week, but as soon as the game is in hand, everyone will be out. Not a recipe for big points. Browns +10

New England Patriots -6.5 at Buffalo Bills: This idea that the Patriots are going to walk in to Buffalo and just trounce the Bills is kind of stupid. Has it been the stellar play against the Raiders and Niners that has convinced everyone that Pats are the Pats of last year? They’re not. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bills won this game outright. Bills +6.5

Oakland Raiders +13 at Tampa Bay Bucs: I’m assuming the Bucs will be able to put some pressure on at home. Raiders +13

Tennessee Titans -3 at Indianapolis Colts: Titans have everything clinched and the Colts are pretty much locked in to the 5. I wouldn’t be surprised if they just let Madden 08 play the game for them. Titans cover.

Dallas Cowboys +1.5 at Philadelphia Eagles: There’s a couple things going against Dallas here. First, if the Ravens runningbacks did that to Dallas last week, what is Westbrook and Buckhalter going to do. Second, Andy Reid has a mind-numbing tendency to go exclusively to Westbrook in weeks after he gets embarrassed — last week qualifies. Third, I can’t take this team in a big game until they prove they can win one. Fun story, my friend Mike put $100 down with a Cowboys’ fan that they won’t win a playoff game this year. This is a rare case where he can win $100 in this game without losing it. Bonus. Eagles cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars +12 at Baltimore Ravens: Like I said last week, this division always plays each other tough I’m dumb. Jaguars +12

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Cincinnati Bengals: Meh… Bengals cover.

Seattle Seahawks +5 at Arizona Cardinals: I expect the Cardinals to play this week, I just don’t know if I expect them to bounce back. Cardinals cover.

Washington Redskins +3 at San Francisco 49ers: Pretty sure the Redskins win here and Zorn gets fired anyway. I’d like to thank Dan Snyder for keeping his team in a constant state of flux. Redskins outright.

Denver Broncos +8.5 at San Diego Chargers: I can’t believe this stupid team, after a whole year of being terrible, is still playing for a stupid playoff spot. The Broncos collapse would be the story of the year if not for stupid Favre collapsing on the stupid Jets because, like the Mets, they used to play in stupid Shea Stadium which is apparently getting its revenge on all former residents this year. Broncos +8.5

Five Good Spreads
5 points – Jaguars +12 over Ravens
4 points – Giants +6.5 over Vikings
3 points – Bears +3 over Texans
2 points – Eagles -1.5 over Cowboys
1 point – Broncos +8.5 over Chargers

W/L – Colts -6.5 over Jaguars, 31-24, Jags +6.5: Solid clock management by Jack Del Rio and David Garrard in the last minute of this game led to an embarrassing sequence that saw them only manage to run two plays in the final 48 seconds of the game. And, somehow, they end up losing the game by the Indianapolis defensive line getting through and sacking Garrard. Just… wow.

W/W – Ravens +5.5 over Cowboys, 33-24, Ravens outright: The Cowboys march down the field and score and the defense immediately gives up 70-yard run to set the team down 9. Romo and the offense fight back down the field to score another touchdown and the defense immediately gives up an 80-yard run to knock the team back down again. The first run made my night. The second run made my year. I desperately wanted to eulogize the Cowboys in this space today but, alas, it will have to wait.

L/L – Titans -1 over Steelers, 31-14, Steelers cover: The Titans convinced me in this game that they were more than a paper tiger and that they deserve some respect. They manned up at home and ensured they don’t need to win a big game on the road. Good showing by them and a disconcerting show from the team who everyone seems to be convinced is the AFC representative.

L/L – Saints -6.5 over Lions, 42-7, Lions outright: Nope. I was wrong.

W/W – Dolphins -4 over Chiefs, 38-31, Dolphins cover: Heck of a fourth quarter by Pennington and the Dolphins. If Jets fans have anything positive to take from this week, it’s that Pennington would have been a disaster in the snow in Seattle, too.

W/W – Patriots -8 over Cardinals, 47-7, Patriots cover: What’s the minimum amount of money you’d bet against the Cardinals finally playing a meaningful game after taking four straight weeks off? At least $200, right?

L/W – Niners -5.5 over Rams, 17-16, Rams outright: Meh.

L/W – Chargers +3.5 over Bucs, 41-24, Chargers +3.5: Unbelievable. This team is like a horror movie monster. One game… the Broncos needed to win one game. Apparently Phil Rivers wants his shot to be the third quarterback out of his class to do the 6-seed, three straight games on the road Super Bowl win.

L/L – Bengals +3 over Browns, 14-0, Browns cover: I guess the players don’t like Romeo as much as they say.

L/W – Seahawks +5 over Jets, 13-3, Seahawks +5: This game begs the question as to whether or not the Jets will even want Favre back next season. In Favre’s defense, after playing an awful game he did make a couple of throws on the money dropped by the offense… but it doesn’t forgive two direct interceptions. It’s one thing for a team to just be perennially bad. It’s another thing for a team, like the Jets, to be perennial c*ckteases. Three weeks ago, we were discussing the Jets as a Super Bowl candidate… now they need the Patriots to drop a must-win game along with Chad Pennington melting down in a game that probably rates about 15 on Bill Simmons’s Vengeance Scale. From arguable 1-seed to out of the playoffs in 3 weeks. New York Jets football.

L/L – Raiders +7 over Texans, 27-16, Texans cover: Or the Texans are going to wind up putting together a mediocre 8-8 season and being 3 games out of the playoffs.

L/L – Bills +5.5 over Broncos, 30-23, Broncos cover: This stupid Broncos team. For 3 weeks, they needed one win. I hate the Broncos.

W/W – Falcons +3 over Vikings, 24-17, Falcons outright: Big stand on the road by the Falcons. Playing this team in the first round is going to suck for whomever has to.

L/L – Redskins +3.5 over Eagles, 10-3, Eagles cover: I had an actual conversation with my friend Hulse that went somewhere along the lines of: “I think the Redskins have a shot to knock the Eagles out this week.” “What are you stupid?” “I guess.” The lesson: never listen to Hulse when it comes to football picks.

W/W – Giants -3 over Panthers, 34-28, Giants cover: One of the best games I’ve ever seen. Added bonus touchdown in overtime to cover the spread. They thought of everything. If this game proved anything, it’s that a gamebreaking runningback with a good offensive line can let you live with a couple of B-level and C-level receivers. Interesting to see if the Giants bring the A-game against the Vikings next year. I think they will and that will make the Bears fans very happy.

W/W – Bears -4.5 over Packers, 20-17, Packers +4.5: The Bears are a brutal offense to watch. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team where I’m more confident in them getting a Pick6 than a touchdown pass. Take heart, Bears fans… Tom Coughlin doesn’t believe in weeks off.

Five Good Spreads
5 points – Giants -3 over Panthers – W
4 points – Browns -3 over Bengals – L
3 points – Patriots -8 over Cardinals – W
2 points – Dolphins -4 over Chiefs – W
1 point – Ravens +5 over Cowboys – W

Standings
Straight Up: 7-9 (138-101-1)
Spread: 9-7 (125-109-6)
Point Pool: 11/15 (131/240 – .546)