One New York Life

Sadly, I didn’t handle scheduling very well at the end of June. I was planning on writing this at the beginning of July, not realizing that I’d be furiously packing and panicking on July 1st. Then, with two weeks in Europe entirely removed from baseball — to the point I actually forgot the All-Star Game occurred — I just decided the June edition wasn’t happening. I’m not sure what it says about me as a fan or baseball as a sport that, over two weeks when baseball was totally removed from my consciousness, I really didn’t think about it or miss it at all. I returned to find a Mets team that was 4 games out when I left were another 2.5 back and inexplicably sinking even though their best player had returned and their starting rotation had shifted such that the 3-5 starters were doing better than the 1-2.

1) While I still think Jerry Manuel deserves one full year to manage an uninjured team, I have finally reached the point where I wouldn’t be sad to see him gone. I’ve seen enough sacrifice bunts while down 3 runs and the team running themselves in to outs to last me a lifetime. Also things I’ve seen enough of: relievers forced to warm-up two or three times per game, Pedro Feliciano and Fernando Nieve being used like Manuel is trying to murder them, playing for one run in road games, running out of players in nine-inning games, inexplicable choices like not pinch-running for Rod Barajas in the ninth inning down 1-run even though they’re carrying three catchers, insisting on using guys even when they’re clearly toast, and not letting the best players play. Look, I like Jeff Francouer as much as the next guy but, pre-Jason Bay’s injury, he should never get a start over Angel Pagan. Ever. Manuel manages by his gut, which is great when it works, but more often than not it doesn’t. What I’m seeing is a guy the players kind of like, but also a guy who can’t quite seem to get the guys motivated to go out there every day. They’re sluggish, they frequently make bad decisions, and their defense is not exactly inspired. Manuel has the right temperament to be a major league manager: He’s level-headed, he doesn’t overreact to bed stretches or get too high on good stretches; but he doesn’t seem to impart that temperament to the players. Manuel has trouble getting them up for big games or down from bad stretches. That’s not good.

2) The most frustrating part of the Mets for me this season has been their inability to play well on both sides of the ball at the same time. Earlier this season, the pitchers and the bullpen couldn’t protect three or four run leads. The week I got back from vacation, the Mets were on a 11-game west coast road trip. During that road trip, the team lost 7 games by 2 runs or less. In this same stretch, the pitchers gave up 3-runs or less in 8 of the 11 games. I could forgive that if it only happened in San Francisco vs. Lincecum, Cain, and a resurgent Zito… but it’s much harder to forgive it in Arizona against a terrible team. The D-Backs scored 13 runs on Mets’ pitchers in the desert and then turned around and scored another 14 in Citi Field this past weekend. That, my friends, is a disaster. This is exactly the opposite of their early season problems, which saw them losing way too many games 10-8 or 7-5. Most teams deal with one or the other… it’s a rare pile of sh*t to deal with both.

3) There are going to be a good number of folks who will crush the general manager for standing pat at the deadline. I made this point last season — what move, exactly, would have fixed this team? By and large, pitching has not been the problem, so sending a pile of future for Lee or Oswalt would have been nice but, really, not a game-breaker. The Mets’ 3.94/3.71 starter/reliever ERA split is not the problem. Also, which offensive position were they going to add the ubiquitous “bat” everyone was calling for? Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay, and Angel Pagan are a good outfield. David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Ike Davis’ positions weren’t up for grabs. That leaves, potentially, catcher (the team has been carrying three) and second base. So, essentially, the move of destiny was to trade for a power bat at 2b. Which means Dan Uggla. It would be unlikely for the Marlins to trade Dan Uggla in the division when they’re arguably still in the race and the Mets’ line-up really doesn’t need an additional righty bat to strike out behind Jason Bay. For whatever reason, the team doesn’t sync. Either the pitching is on or the hitting is on, but they’re rarely both on at the same time. That’s not fixed via trade.

4) Also, let’s keep in mind… it’s an oft-repeated platitude when a team gets a guy back from injury to say “it’s like making a big trade.” In this case, though, it’s really true. The Mets essentially traded Jeff Francoeur for Carlos Beltran. A team really can’t do much better in a trade. Beltran isn’t producing yet… he will. Unfortunately, he’s still working on a razor-thin fan tolerance line because he struck out that one time in 2006.

5) To the people who still insist Omar needs to go, I’ll throw it to my friend Mike:
Omar Minaya’s resume vs. the Mets’ timeline…

Notice a trend. When he’s here, we contend. When he’s gone, we’re a laughingstock. This can not be a coincidence. Is he perfect? No. Has he made mistakes? Yes. I’ll wait patiently while you show me a GM who hasn’t ever been burned on a contract. Still waiting. I’m sorry….you cant find one? Of course you can’t. The difference is how the team handles bad contracts, where we won’t eat an obviously bad contract and replace someone like Ollie. What’s a GM going to do then? He’s gotta find creative and cheap alternatives. Omar does this as well as anyone (like Dickey, Takahashi, etc). If you want to fire Omar, you better bring in someone fantastic and not just fire him for the sake of change. He’s a good GM who’s stuck with a tough ownership position and has consistently put a contender on the field. This isn’t much different than Theo Epstein or Brian Cashman, except those guys, when they miss on a contract, can just eat it.

6) As someone who tries to be level-headed when it comes to the team’s players, it really is time for Oliver Perez to go. Steve Phillips (whose opinion I don’t usually put much stock in) told WFAN that the biggest drawback to the Wilpons is that they refuse to eat contracts, lest the player experience a renaissance on another team. This is dumb. Look, at this point Oliver Perez is done on the Mets. The team doesn’t want to see him, the fans don’t want to see him, and the manager really doesn’t want to use him. This means that unless the team is in a blowout, they’re playing down a roster spot. That’s not good. Ollie is worse than replacement level at this point… it’s time for him to go and, if he turns around and pitches up a storm for someone else, the fans will understand. Stretch Meija out for a couple more starts at AA, send Takahashi back to the pen, and let Ollie take his talents to South Beach. Meija can be a fifth starter with Taka caddying him every fifth day.

7) Usually “pressing” is a platitude offered by a manager to the media so he can protect a player from those who would over-analyze a slump. Over-analyzing is all we do here and no player or manager is willing to say “yeah, I’m in a slump. It happens sometimes. There’s not much I can do but give me a day off and I’ll come out of it eventually” because that totally true statement would be run through the insane media and become “he doesn’t care enough.” The closest we’ve ever gotten to this in a news broadcast is the Dustin Pedroia Laser Show interview. There is a difference between pressing and slumping. In the Mets’ case, they’re all pressing. I get the sense that they know they’re playing well under their ceiling and they’ve collectively decided to put it all on themselves to win. Hitting doesn’t work that way.

8) Speaking of slumping, let’s all collectively deciding to settle down about Jason Bay. Look, our ownership built a gigantic baseball stadium and we watched an entire team struggle to learn how to hit in the park last season. For right-handed hitters, the process is as follows. Phase One: see shots that should be home runs turn in to outs or doubles via the Great Wall Of Flushing. Phase Two: start tinkering with your approach to get your power stroke closer to either foul pole. Phase Three: go insane because tinkering with your approach is the worst thing you can do. Phase Four: notice that, while your home runs are down, your other power numbers are up; Bay, for example, already has a career high in triples and is on pace to challenge his season high in doubles. Phase Five: relax and get back to normal. Jason Bay is mired in Phase Three. Hopefully this current trip to the DL will move him through Phase Four and in to Phase Five. Bay has been admitted terrible but if he comes off the DL and tears up August and September, we’ll forget the rest of this ever happened.

9) If I’m worried about the long-term mental stability of any player, it’s Mike Pelfrey. After a killer first half, Pelfrey handed in a 0-3, 10.02 ERA July that featured five starts with a 4 innings/start average. That’s not good, and Pelfrey’s not been the most stable of pitchers, famously visiting a sports psychologist over this past summer so he could settle down on the mound. It worked for a while. It’s stopped. Pelfrey’s starts have been brutal to watch, as he’s regressed in to his twitchy, unable to throw strike former self. Also brutal to watch: Johan Santana’s 7 ER starts this season. Considering Johan and Halladay have had a rough go of it in a start or two this season, this clearly means the NL is better than the AL.

10) When defending my relatively level-headed approach to this season amidst a crapstorm of negativity, I’ve pointed to this week as DEFCON 1 Week. If the Mets went through this week’s road trip through Atlanta and Philly at 4-2 or better, I’d consider the season alive. If they go 2-4 or worse and were 8 games back, it would be time to start focusing on Giants’ season. So far, they looked lackluster and dead in game one and fought back to win game two. If they’re still in it after this week — they still have 7 games left against the Braves in September and, really, if the Braves think Billy Wagner’s going to be saving them big games down the stretch… well… I know how that movie ends.

Current Record (May 31st): 26-26
May Record: 12-17
Games Back (NL East): 3.5, Atlanta, 3rd Place.
Games Back (Wildcard): 5.5, San Diego

1) So, what have we learned since April? We learned that the Mets are full of streaky hitters who go from horrid, 0-21 stretches directly to weeks where they hit .410. We also learned they are an incredibly awesome home team (19-9) and a horrid road team (7-17). Part of this is managing and part is overuse of a short-handed bullpen. Since Oliver Perez’s rather public refusal to go to the minors to work on mechanics, he’s been a $12M/year mop-up man, coming in the game to clean up after blowouts. This rather public pissing contest will likely come to an end, one way or another, on June 4th. That’s the day Jonathan Niese is scheduled to come off the DL. Ollie is currently the only useless piece on the roster. It’s quite possible he either goes to Buffalo on the 4th (with, by the way, a full recovery plan including a return date) or he gets released. Folks, even Scott Boras, his agent, is on board with the minor league assignment and it’s bad enough that even the players are making public statements. Pride goes before the fall, Oliver.

2) From bad starters to excellent ones. Mike Pelfrey has thrown his hat in to the ring with the other excellent young starters in the National League this year and is making a solid play for his first All Star appearance. He’s gotten great run support and is putting together a fantastic season. Johan Santana is also putting up a fantastic season, but is getting no runs for the second straight year. In his last five starts, he’s sporting a 0.74 ERA, a .493 OPS against, 22 Ks, one win, and 4 no-decisions. It’s frustrating for me and it must be murderously frustrating for him. Predictably, the New York media is desperately trying to create a story out of this. They haven’t been successful. Yet.

3) Two years after signing an ill-advised (for the Angels) contract, Gary Matthews Jr is washed up. Like, totally washed up. Washed up to the point that he was hitting .132 a few weeks ago and Jerry Manuel was still giving him every opportunity to come out of it. The final tipping point, I think, was May 29th against the Brewers. In a game where the team had to give a reliever his first start, Fernando Nieve gave up 5 runs in two innings. In the top of the third, the Brewers forced Manuel’s hand by intentionally walking the bases loaded up two runs with two outs to get to the pitcher. Manuel complied, pulling Nieve for a pinch hitter. Instead of using Chris Carter or Fernando Tatis (two much better pinch hitters), Manuel agonizingly sent up Matthews who struck out weakly on four pitches. From there, Matthews would only get three more pinch hit at-bats in low leverage situations. His time with the team is drawing to a close (He was DFAed on 6/3. He was doing so badly that the Mets don’t have a back-up center fielder on the roster — ed.) and I think even he knows it after that strike out. He got off to a terrible start, was stuck with even though Angel Pagan should have gotten his job out of Spring, and eventually went out weakly. He did, however, last longer than Randy Winn who some Mets’ fans were convinced would have been a great signing.

4) For a team that was destroyed for having a terrible farm system two months ago, it certainly seems like the kids coming up are much better than people recall. Ike Davis, slumping now, emerged as a legitimate power threat. He’s already locked in as the team’s every day clean-up hitter and is likely a contender in the crowded NL Rookie Of The Year market. Angel Pagan, who was drafted by the Mets, sent to the Cubs, and ultimately traded back to the Mets has emerged as a pretty good every day center fielder. Chris Carter, also known as “The Guy From The Billy Wagner Trade” has shown himself to be a competent pinch hitter and I’m actually looking forward to nine days of watching him pace the dugout like an animal while DHing through Cleveland and Baltimore.

5) It’s become such a normal thing for me to respond to various unfair criticisms of Jerry Manuel that I sometimes forget he does some frustrating things. Besides the situation where he was out of bench players in the bottom half of a nine inning game (and then Wright got tossed, which would have led to an interesting extra innings had he Mets scored), he also has an infuriating tendency to play for one run in extra innings on the road. Meaning, he’ll get a guy on first and sacrifice two outs getting him to third. I don’t think it’s coincidence that the Mets have lost seven walk-off games this year and ALL their road extra inning games except for the 20-inning disaster. Why does he follow “typical baseball knowledge” except for the “don’t play for one run on the road” one? I hate it.

6) The trade rumors have started to get really loud around the Mets. At the moment, it’s centering primarily around two guys. First, the Mariners fooled everyone in the preseason and are much more awful than anyone expected. This has created a Cliff Lee watch. Second, Roy Oswalt’s public demand for a trade has fired everyone up considering, according to most sources, the Mets had Oswalt in a three-way deal two years ago until the idiot in Baltimore pulled out. Both deals are intriguing. Dealing for Lee would probably be much cheaper since the Mets would be renting him for a potential stretch run. They’d probably be able to pull it off for Triple A talent and a couple nameless prospects. It would also, presumably, be a dress rehearsal for how big a contract the Mets will offer him next season if the Yankees don’t decide to blow everyone out of the water. The Oswalt deal, on the other hand, would be much more expensive in terms of talent. Now we’re talking young talent like Jonathan Niese, Ruben Tejada, and others, but it gets them back two or three years of a pitcher the team has coveted for, literally, years. It also takes them out of the Cliff Lee market next year. Sadly, neither will happen. The most likely deal, I think, might be swapping Oliver Perez, most of his salary, and a prospect to the Brewers for Jeff Suppan. The Brewers can get a free pitcher for 2011 and reunite Ollie with the only pitching coach who’s really had success with him while the Mets can give Suppan a change of scenery and hope their canyon-sized ballpark and good defense can bring his .400 BABIP down.

7) Also, a moment to call out the disingenuous people in the New York media who were still gleefully calling for the GM and manager to be fired because the Mets were in last place a few days before Memorial Day. I find it stunning that they think nobody can see through the “well, I called this team as last place crap so I need to now defend my premise” nonsense. There’s an ocean of difference between “22-23, 5 games out” last place and the “13-26, 10 games out” last place from the Brewers and Diamondbacks. It’s become literally impossible to take any of the regular media writers (and some of the bloggers) seriously as this season goes on. We get it, you predicted the team would be in last place so you’re picking apart every move to prove your premise. You’re wrong. Move on. It’s a tight division, it’s a surprisingly good division, and the last place team in the NL East is probably better than most teams in either Central division.

8) And, leave it to Major League Baseball to take the tightest division, and present a gift-wrapped three free home games to the Phillies. I understand that the scheduling algorithm, for whatever reason, doesn’t work things like “city closing events” to make sure teams aren’t home at that time — but the best idea they could come up with was allowing the Phillies to play the Blue Jays IN PHILLY when they’re supposed to be in Toronto. How is that fair to the rest of the division? You’re going to tell me that the logistics of moving it to Pittsburgh (where they hate the Phillies) while the Pirates are in Oakland was too hard? Besides the point, a Mets/Marlins series has already been moved to Puerto Rico from Miami. They really couldn’t have convinced San Juan to host six games instead of three? American League baseball isn’t THAT bad, is it?

9) Or, here’s the best idea nobody’s come up with except (of course) fans and a couple bloggers. There are two American League franchises that are in potential relocation situations in the next couple seasons. NOBODY thought to take Montreal’s temperature? Where, not only would it be way more fair because there’d be a Canadian team playing in Canada, but Mets fans would certainly make the drive up for a unique way of rooting against the Phillies. I understand that Stade Olympique isn’t a fabulous baseball stadium, but it’s a much fairer location for the games and, if it turns out that Montreal is receptive to getting a team back, suddenly Tampa has to think a little harder about telling the Rays to go screw. A second AL East team in Montreal is a WAY more attractive situation for baseball. It creates a great rivalry in Canada and makes road trips much easier for other teams. For God’s sake — Montreal is an 8 hour (counting time spent at the border) train ride from here and I still would have honestly considered the trip to 1) root against the Phillies and 2) have a throwback weekend in Montreal. This division is almost certainly going to come down to less than three games and, should the Phillies win, it’s going to be something of a travesty.

10) Ultimately, the team is doing exactly what I thought they had to do back in the preview. They had to dance right around .500 with their piecemeal line-up until they figured out what they had in the rotation and until Carlos Beltran came back in late June or July. That’s almost exactly what they’re doing. They’re getting great pitching out of two planned starters, they’re getting surprisingly good pitching from two key, quiet pick-ups from the Worst GM In The History Of New York in R.A. Dickey and Ken Takahashi, and their bullpen has vacillated between OK and fantastic. When they finally add a great 3-hitter and one more pitcher, the worst team that’s absolutely no better than last place is going to make a push at this division. And I can say “I told them so.”

Current Record: 14-9
April Record: 14-9
Standings: 1st Place (up 1.0)

1) The Mets’ opening day line-up involved Alex Cora leading off, Mike Jacobs batting clean-up, and Gary Matthews Jr. in center field. That, my friends, is a depressing line-up with which to go to war. Jose Reyes missed the first week of the season. Anyone with a sense of, you know, timing, had some idea the first homestand would be a little rough. They grabbed the opening day win and went 2-2 pre-Reyes. This was fine, and there was a potential hot start on the horizon as the Mets had two to go against the Nationals. It was not to be, though, as we all decided to forget that Reyes hadn’t played a competitive baseball game since last May and also had no Spring Training.

2) To that end, Reyes looked horrible in his first few starts. He looked tired on the basepaths, almost clueless at shortstop, and overmatched at the plate — climaxing with an 0-7 in the 20 inning game (pairing slickly with Jeff Francouer’s 0-7 in the same game to tank my fantasy week). Then, Jerry let him sit for the first game of the Greatest Homestand In Team History, finally pulled the trigger on batting him third (which I was totally wrong about) and he’s started to come out of it. Jerry’s point, which I wrongfully ignored, is that Reyes’ being on base doesn’t matter much if the 3/4/5 can’t knock them in. The man has a point.

3) Gary Matthews Jr should probably not be playing baseball anymore. I understand the Mets were hoping they could showcase him against the Marlins, Nationals, and Rockies (in Denver) and maybe entertain a few trade offers, but he has nothing left. Jerry Manuel, because he’s a loyal, level-headed dude in an insane, over-reactive market, gave him way too long to “come out of it”. Angel Pagan is not a long-term answer at centerfield, but his .244/.314/.346 is Williams-esque as compared to what Matthews has done. I thought that Matthews would likely end up in a trade package near the deadline when Beltran was finally ready, but at this point it seems more likely that he’ll be designated for assignment since I’m not sure anyone would want him. He’s a replacement level player (Prospectus has his WARP at 0.2) and he’s certainly not a “perk” for any GM with a clue. As a defensively-decent center fielder, it’s really hard to be “not worth it” for $1M — but Matthews has found a way.

4) When I wrote about Mike Jacobs back in the preview, I kind of expected him to come out of the gate strong. He said all the right things in Spring Training and really led me to believe he had something to contribute. Then, he hit .208/.296/.375 with 1 HR and 7 K in his first 7 games. In a normal year, that might have been a slow start the team could absorb. Unfortunately, an impatient fan-base, not-particular-hot ticket sales, and Ike Davis destroying AAA to the tune of .364/.500/.636 with 2 HR, 9 BB, and 5K in 10 games led to Jacobs getting coyly designated for assignment after the 20-inning game to “make room for a pitcher.” On Monday, Ike was summoned from Buffalo. Ike’s .306/.409/.472 and 6 RBI out-performed the Tatis/Jacobs platoon. Just like that, Davis claimed first, Tatis was a bench player, and Daniel Murphy has no clear role on the team after he recovers from one of the most poorly-timed injuries ever. While I’ll grant that the list of guys who’ve come up and galvanized a team only to flame out quickly is a long one, Ike seems to control of the plate and plays some superb defense at 1B. While I’m still taking a “wait and see” approach with him, a big spring, a big debut, and success at all levels of the minors is, well, exciting. As for Murphy, it’s likely he’ll end up Banished To Buffalo and I don’t know what happens. Francoeur has taken something of a leadership role on the team, left is Bay’s for the foreseeable future, and Castillo (despite the fans’ insane and inexplicable desires) is still playing well at second. Unless Davis swoons hugely in the next few weeks, Murphy will have lost his job to an ill-timed ligament tear in a freak baserunning injury during Spring Training. Not a story you want to tell your grandkids someday.

5) When Jerry Manuel came home from St. Louis at 4-8, I honestly thought the team was getting ready to fire him. Fair or not, the team needed to get off to a big start and the bats were all quiet. Most of it, though, was easily explainable. Jose Reyes had no spring training. Jason Bay was off to a terribly slow start. Oh, and their clean-up hitter was MIKE JACOBS. They were 5 games out of first and the columns being written, predictable, said they were a bottom-dwelling team, a waste of money, and wouldn’t be better than fourth place the entire season. Then, they went 9-1 at home and took a half-game lead from the Phillies (which should have been a whole game, except for Bruce Bochy inexplicably pulling Tim Lincecum after 8.1 and leading to this insane box score). Manuel shuffled the line-up, discovered that his most solid card was Pagan, Castillo, Reyes, Wright, Bay, Davis, Francoeur, and Barajas, Gary Matthews was banished to the clubhouse, the pitchers stepped up, and the Mets took advantage of some suspect play from the Braves. Suddenly, Jerry’s a genius and everything’s fine. I love Mets’ columnists.

6) And by “the pitching stepped up” I really mean “the pitching and defense stepped up”. Mets pitching in April had a total ERA under 3 with a way-too-high 1.4 WHIP. Mets’ pitchers during The Homestand let way too many guys on base, but made big pitches when they needed it and kept runners from scoring.

7) After watching Jeff Francoeur gun guys down at third and home from all parts of right field, I’d like to start a campaign to get him to adopt the Dikembe Mutombo finger wave whenever he records an assist. I saw one live (I went to the Mets/Nationals loss when Santana decided to give up 4 runs in the first inning because I was there. He hates me) and it’s like watching Vlad when he was in Montreal. You don’t believe there’s any way for him to do it, then he does it, and it’s breath-taking. Until that game, I also forgot how annoying it was to play against Livan Hernandez. He just lets a ton of guys on base, makes the crowd think there’s a rally coming, and then mows down the guys he knows he can get out. It’s terrible.

8) Pelfrey, Maine, and Perez have, collectively, been slightly better than expected. The bulk of this goes to Pelfrey who, in his first four starts went 4-0 with a 0.69 ERA. He also pulled a “gimme the damn ball” in the 20-inning game to collect the rarely seen Win-Save-Win. His ERA got violently snapped back to normal by giving up 6 (questionably Earned via hometown scoring as both Reyes and Castillo dropped infield flies) runs to Philly on May 1st. Maine got off to something of a rough start, but seemed to have an A-Ha Moment following his 3.2, 3K, 1ER appearance against Braves in which he was pulled for still-not-sufficiently-explained reasons. Following that performance, he went 6.0 strong against the Braves with 9Ks and 2ER. He’ll get another soft landing spot tomorrow in Cincinnati. Perez… who knows. At this point, Jerry Manuel has given him almost no leash and Hisanori Takahashi has essentially become his caddy, coming in when the walks get out of hand, saving the bad inning, and collecting the win. Perez will also get a soft landing at Great American Ballpark this week.

9) Two solid strikes against Jerry Manuel. First, he sticks with guys way too long. We covered this above with Jacobs and Matthews. His second problem, it seems, is managing a bullpen. During the 20-inning game in St. Louis, he got K-Rod up in the bullpen six or seven times before finally putting him in. At that point, it was almost expected he would blow the save. Rodriguez said after the game he believed he threw something like 100 warm up pitches. Isn’t warming up a closer on the road pretty straight-forward? The manager makes one phone call and says “as soon as we score a run, get ready.” Not if there’s a guy on third, not if there’s a guy on second, but when we actually score a run. Then, the next day, Jerry had him up AGAIN at least once. If not for a fortuitous 5-inning game called for weather followed by a PPD rain-out against the Dodgers to give the bullpen two full days off, K-Rod and Fernando Nieve would be dead… in April.

10) Too many people were totally out on this team, making insane proclaimations about the season with literally 150 games left on the schedule. As I mentioned to friends, the NFL season will be four games deep by the time baseball season ends. There is, literally, no declaration that can be made in the second week of April. To do so is insane. If there is ANYTHING that concerns me, it’s the fact that the Phillies are so far in Johan Santana’s head that they can actually see out his eyes. But that’s a post for next month after their Yankees/Phillies homestand. I remain cautiously optimistic. Wright, Francoeur, and Bay look good. Reyes is recovering, Castillo is doing what he does, and the Barajas/Blanco catcher combo have been calling awesome games. The team is not bad. Their hitting is not as good as the Phillies but, top-to-bottom, their pitching is as good. Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey are fly ball pitchers — that they got crushed in Citizens Bank Park on consecutive warm, humid days is not shocking. It will be much more disconcerting if they get equally crushed in Citi Field at the end of May.

On the same e-mail list that generated The Mike Mussina Hall Of Fame Case series, someone posted a diatribe about what they’d do if they ran the Mets. Which disintegrated quickly in to the standard “Fire Omar” and “Fire Jerry” stuff… even though we’re only five games in to the season. This was a well thought out, level-headed response from my friend Mike.

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Bottom line: we’re 9 games in, the team is 3-6 (by the way, they would be 5-4 if Willie Harris didn’t make that insane bottom 9 catch and if Johan didn’t have 1 bad inning against the Nats. I’m not saying those losses don’t count but, it’s not like they’re getting their doors blown off, they caught a couple bad games early. Also…still got 153 games left so blowing it all up does not make sense just yet). I guess I’d think of things more like this…

If I (meaning a person who thinks about things instead of randomly spitting out lines without a filter) Ran the Mets:

1. I wouldn’t not fire Jerry or Omar yet — Jerry Manuel has yet to a have a full season managing a full roster without a rash of injuries that pretty much everyone in baseball agreed they’d never seen happen before. He at least deserves that chance. If it’s July 31 and the Mets are like 25 games out, then we can have that talk, but not now.
2. Meanwhile, Here’s the deal with Omar Minaya. Everyone wants to fire him, but ultimately they never have an actual reason. His biggest gaffe seems to be signing Luis Castillo for a 24 million dollar deal, which in the end wasn’t crippling the franchise, nor has Castillo been bad for the Mets. He’s a slightly above average second baseman who can still play good defense, gets on base regularly, never K’s, and understands his role on the team. Omar is also the guy who regularly can turn sh*t into shinola, doing things like trading Kris Benson, who was basically awful for his entire career, into a serviceable Orlando Hernandez in 2006 and John Maine in 2006 and 2007. Who turned a washed up Ryan Church into Jeff Francoeur who appears to be a guy who can be our RF for a decade and do a good job. He traded for Johan Santana, the best LHP in baseball, and in doing so gave up nobody of consequence unless Carlos Gomez becomes an All Star, despite having a very good pitching prospect in Pelf and a stud OF prospect in Fernando Martinez. His good moves wildly outweigh his bad ones.
3. If moves don’t get you going, here’s the bottom line. The early 1990’s Mets were a joke. We stunk. Omar was on board as an assistant GM in the mid 1990’s when the team that everyone loves to death was put together, a team that regularly contended for the playoffs, and made it to a World Series. He left in 2002 to go to Montreal as their GM and when he left we saw the team get blown up to put together the Vaughn/Burnitz Mets who stunk. That regime also dealt Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano. I’d like to think Omar would have done better. He came back after the 2004 season and put together a team that went from 93 losses to 83-81 in 2005, made it to an NLCS in 2006, and contended in 2007 and 2008. Basically, the only times the Mets haven’t been a laughingstock since the 80’s, Omar’s been a part of the organization, and every era that he’s not a part of has been pretty awful. He’s a good GM who regularly puts a contender on the field and really, that’s all you can ask for.
4. I would dump a lot more money and energy into scouting and the minor leagues – The New York Mets, a team with a huge payroll that generates tons of money, spent less in the 2009 draft than ANY TEAM IN BASEBALL. That’s insanity. How do you go cheap on something where you can literally blow people out of the water? How do you let the reds get Aroldis Champan when you know you can absorb his contract even if he’s a bust? The Mets have an identity crisis where they have a big market payroll with a small market thinking process. Their minor leagues are a mess because ownership focuses only on the big club. The Mets have produced one player from their own system who was good enough to retire a number for…Tom Seaver. That’s it. They have a habit of going after high priced guys and in doing so they sometimes miss out on what could be good, cost controlled talent. To go back to my earlier topic, Omar’s been better about this than most other GM’s we’ve employed. It’s a thinking that starts at the top with Ownership, and any manager/GM combo you can think of is going to fall into it. Hopefully this will change since they did some house cleaning, but only time will tell.
5. I would kindly ask Jeff Wilpon to leave the city, country, building, planet… whatever stopped him from interfereing with my plans. Just leave. He can stay in NY and sit in the owner’s box and design the Supercenter Of Baseball in Queens. He’s way more suited for that than for baseball operations.
6. I would wait for Beltran to return and be healthy – If this doesn’t happen, then the Mets are in trouble. He is their best everyday player (or at least second best depending on where you rank Wright), and solves almost every single lineup problem singlehandedly. He is the difference between a .500 Mets team and a 90+ win Mets team.

If this team is bad at the end of July, then you might start thinking of making changes for next season, but until then, it’s dumb to even think about it.

2009 Stats: 125 games (Blue Jays), .226/.258/.403, 19 HR
2010 Projections: .240/.290/.405, 13 HR
Contract Status: 1 year/$500k/$400k roster bonus.
Position: Starting C

On Offense: I found it interesting that the Mets would sign Barajas to a “minor league deal” and then sign a bunch of other catchers who aren’t nearly as good. Look, Barajas isn’t Joe Mauer but he’s the best option on the Mets’ roster and the only one who isn’t a bench player with delusions of grandeur. The best Met catching option was taken in the Rule V Draft by Washington. Barajas is the guy.

On Defense: As someone who doesn’t watch many Blue Jay games, I’ll have to go with what his b-r page suggests. He’s pretty good. That’s all I got.

On 2010: He’s an aging catcher who’s always been decent. If he’s that for the Mets this season. It’s the best option they have. This seems short, but after 30 of these, I’m spent.

Surefire Prediction: Opening day catcher, Josh Thole is his caddy.

2009 Stats: 125 games, .282/.339/.438, 8 HR
2010 Projections: .262/.333/.431, 13 HR
2009 Injury: Third Fernando
Contract Status: 1 year
Position: Platoon 1B

On Offense: Since Tatis’ surprise resurgence in 2008, he’s somewhat quietly become something of a stalwart bench player for the Mets. Last season, due to various injuries to Carlos Delgado and David Wright and partial platooning with Dan Murphy, Tatis wound up in 125 games and put up respectable numbers for an every day player — much less for a bench player. It’s tough to say if this kind of thing will last as Tatis gets older, but so long as the Mets continue to be able to offer him one-year gigs as a bench player, there aren’t a lot of holes in his game. I wanted to find something in his splits to pick apart but, really, there wasn’t anything.

On Defense: Tatis spent time at every fielding position last season except catcher and center field. As a player who doesn’t have his own position, I can just rate him as what he is — a pretty good fill-in who doesn’t lose the team games in the field. Really, playing six positions and only being responsible for three errors is pretty much awesome.

On 2010: I expect that Tatis will continue to be what he’s been. A really good bench player who has a decent knack for picking up big hits. Tatis could quickly find himself lost in the shuffle with the influx of decent bench players the Mets have on the roster this year. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to find him packaged up with Gary Matthews Jr. for a trade. He’s a cheap, good option at many different positions.

Surefire Prediction: Should the opening day platoon be Murphy/Tatis — Tatis will get more starts by season’s end.

2009 Stats: 22 games, 7 starts, 59 IP, 3-4, 4.12 ERA, 1.373 WHIP
2010 Projections: 4-4, 4.16
2009 Injury: None
Contract Status: 1 year, reserved
Position: Bullpen

On 2009: Misch made four appearances for the Giants last season and pitched to a smooth 10.80 ERA before being DFAed. The Mets, using Omar’s “I’ll Take Any Nearly Free Arm” plan during the Great Bullpen Reboot Of 2009, grabbed Misch off the trash heap and used the Banishment To Buffalo method of motivation. Misch debuted with the Mets in June and pitched pretty well for them in relief. He finished August with a 2.89 ERA in relief for the Mets before taking part in the team’s promotional Everyone Gets A Start September. His one-month starting career was a roller coaster of highs (CGSHOWning the Marlins) and lows (1.1 IP, 8 ER vs. the Braves).

On 2010: Misch has worked 12 innings in relief so far this spring and pitched to a 0.75 ERA. It’s likely that his short lived starting career will remain exactly that. I’m most interested to see if Dan Warthen has actually found a flaw in Misch that the Giants missed. Misch killed it for the Mets last year in a dead season and is currently killing it for them in spring training. In almost four seasons with the Giants, he was never better than a below-average reliever. With the Mets he’s been money.

Surefire Prediction: None of the projections have him as anything better than what he’s been — that being a 4+ reliever. I’m going to say his good stretch has been less of a fluke and the change of scenery’s done him a solid. I’ll take the under on his projections.

2009 Stats: 29 games, .176/.242/.275, 1 HR
2010 Projections: .254/.307/.399, 7 HR
2009 Injury: Right Knee Inflammation, eventual surgery
Contract Status: 1 year, reserved
Position: Back-up OF, Fernanchise

On Offense: Not quite ready for prime-time. F-Mart’s been fair-to-good at all levels of the minors since being signed as a Latin free agent at 17 in 2006. The team brought him up last year because they had nobody left to play the outfield. As the slash line above indicates, it was a spectacular failure and lead to the resurrection of Angel Pagan. F-Mart looked plainly overmatched at the plate and, as usual, the media didn’t help — skewering him for not being the savior of the team at age 20 and on an accelerated learning curve. This spring, though, F-Mart’s joined the high-octane club. In 42 spring training at-bats, Martinez has put together a slightly ridiculous .405/.426/.786 with 3 HR, 3 doubles, 2 triples, and 11 RBI. It seems nearly impossible for him not to make the roster on April 5th. Whether or not he’ll be the hitter projected by the team remains to be seen — especially since he still can’t purchase alcohol.

On Defense: F-Mart played all three outfield positions during his time at the Major League level last season. His center field play was great. His corner outfield was not. He will likely split time in CF with Angel Pagan — the person who gets the most starts depending on the relative health of Jose Reyes. With Reyes out of the line-up, Pagan is the only natural lead-off hitter on the roster. With Reyes in the line-up, F-Mart’s rumored power is better fitted in the middle of the line-up. Defensively, F-Mart’s probably the second-best center fielder on the 40-man roster behind Beltran.

On 2010: F-Mart is the team’s long-term solution at center field when Beltran’s contract expires in 2012. In fact, with a gun to their heads, I’m sure the Mets are not happy they had to give him any taste of the majors last year and would be very happy if he wasn’t on the 25-man roster at all this season. Unfortunately, with Beltran’s injury, they had to start the clock last season and keep it running at least until June of this one. If F-Mart has a big couple of months, the team is going to get crushed for sending him down. Even worse, it’s not very likely he’ll play much at the Major League level next year. Since he has options, though, they don’t really have a choice; he’s not starting in front of Beltran, he’s not a bench player, and having him in the majors is nothing but a waste of service time. The Mets will do their level best to make sure Martinez’s 172nd day of service comes in 2012. I’d also say — this is the season where Martinez really has to shake the “injury prone” mantle. He hasn’t played a full season at any level. If he ends up with another prolonged DL stint this season, that mantle will probably stick. Jose Reyes still has the perception of being “injury prone” even after four consecutive seasons of 155+ games.

Surefire Prediction: 15+ home runs over the course of this season. At least 25 articles will be written about trading Carlos Beltran and starting F-Mart every day in 2011.

2009 Stats: 16 games, 10 starts, 70.1 IP, 3-8, 4.09 ERA, 1.479 WHIP
2010 Projections: 8-9, 4.59
2009 Injury: None
Contract Status: 1 year
Position: Potential Fifth Start/Long Relief

On 2009: The Mets acquired Figueroa as a free agent in 2008 and have used him as a spot-starter/AAA flunkie in the last two seasons. Figueroa has been a trooper — doing what the team has asked and making a few big spot starts against divisional opponents. Then being banished to Buffalo when needed. Figueroa is at the point in his career where he can leave the team rather than go to the minors, but he’s dutifully made room on the roster when asked. He must like the organization. There’s no other good explanation.

On 2010: The Mets rotation seems pretty set. Figueroa, again, appears to be the odd man out. The only question remains is if he’ll be brought up to the Majors as safety net for Jonathan Niese or if he’ll be assigned to Buffalo to start the season. My gut tells me he’ll start on the Major League roster since the team still doesn’t really know what they’re going to get out of four of their five starters. It’s possible they’ll even need a second long man. Maybe a third. Vive La Beisbol!

Surefire Prediction: The Mets can’t keep assigning him to minor league teams with nobody making a waiver claim. He’s not a rock-star pitcher, but a roughly 4.50 ERA will keep you on a Major League roster. I don’t think he’ll end the season on the Mets. Of course, he’s been able to leave every season so, well, who knows.

2009 Stats: 4 games (Boston), .000/.000/.000
2009 Minor: 116 games (Pawtucket), .294/.358/.465, 16 HR
2010 Projections: .276/.337/.452, 17 HR
Acquired: From the Boston Red Sox with 1B Eddie Lora in the Billy Wagner trade
Contract Status: 1 year/$400K, reserved
Position: Bench OF

On Offense: Looking at Carter’s Pawtucket statistics, it looks like he eats AAA pitching alive. It also looks like he was something of a victim of circumstance in the Red Sox system. Since 2006, he’s been blocked by some combination of Manny, J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, and Jacoby Ellsbury. Looking at his minor league stats on baseball-reference, he appears to destroy pitching at every level of the minor leagues. This has led to only 26 plate appearances over two years for the Red Sox. This might wind up being the best move Minaya made last season. Carter looks like a good, versatile, young player with some pop that he got for an expiring contract and compensatory draft picks. If Carter continues to tear it up in the minors and Francoeur gets off to a slow start, I can totally see a world in which Carter comes up and takes Frenchie’s job.

On Defense: Carter has played both corner outfield positions and first base in the minors. As good as baseball-reference is, it appears they don’t yet have advanced fielding stats for minor league games. He looks like he’s been decent at all three positions he’s played. Fortunately for him, two of those three are ones where the Mets have serious future questions.

On 2010: I don’t follow my own team’s minor league affiliates very closely, so you can imagine how well I follow an American League team’s minor league system. Carter was acquired as a player to be named later in August last season. The Mets had planned to give him a look at the Major League level until the Yankees, for no other reason than to be douches, made a waiver claim forcing the Mets to wait until after the season to complete the trade. Carter, like Mike Jacobs and Ike Davis, is making a strong play for either Dan Murphy’s job at first or Francoeur’s job in right. In 22 spring training at-bats, his slash line is a comically high .409/.458/.909 with 3 HRs and 8 RBI. This is making Francoeur’s .190 average and 2 HR in 42 at-bats seem a little less appealing. Carter should be on the 25-man roster on April 5th. If not on it, he should be position 1 on the speed dial if Francoeur doesn’t get off to a fast start. What’s more likely is that he defeats Fernando Martinez for the 24th slot on the roster.

Surefire Prediction: As is the case with all the Mets early season call-ups, Carter will destroy the ball for his first five appearances. I’ll say 2 HRs, 1 double, and 3 singles in his first 20 at bats. Then he’ll hit .200 with no power for the rest of the season. How we do in Queens.