One New York Life

SU: 7-6 (67-36)
ATS: 6-7 (50-53)

So last week in my Pick 4 contest. Green Bay didn’t cover, so I got really annoyed. Then, as I sat there and watched Baltimore/Jacksonville, a game which Tony Kornheiser said that “everyone who’s ever lived in the city of Baltimore should be ashamed of”, I realized that Green Bay not covering was not the worst thing in the world… because Baltimore never would have fought their way from my contempt.

Sunday

Colts +7 at Titans: You know the scary part for the Colts? They really only have two winnable games left on their schedule and they’re both against Jacksonville. Titans cover.

Jaguars +10 at Texans: I’m going to regret this, I know, but let’s just say the Jags with points in their division has been a pretty solid play so far this season. Did you know Jack Del Rio was still their coach? Neither did I. Jaguars +10

Vikings +3 at Panthers: I have to say… I’m more curious about this game than any other this week. If Christian Ponder comes right out and has a fairly decent game against the Panthers, he’s getting Anointed as the next big thing, right? Besides, Matt Forte put 200 yards rushing on the Panthers. Shouldn’t Peterson be able to do something similar? Especially if the guy running the plays is actually a passing threat? Vikings outright

Saints -14 at Rams: This was only 11.5 in the pick 4 league. Last week gave me a healthy respect for the road favorite with a lot of points as neither that I picked covered… but can you find more than 10 points for the Rams? I know the Saints should have a let down after hanging 62 on a bad team in a road dome…….. but maybe I’ll wait for them to not be playing a bad team in a road dome. Saints cover*

Cardinals +12.5 at Ravens: As someone who frequently calls out the Worldwide Leader for their massive overreactions to quarterbacks, I said they might have had a little bit of a quick hook calling Joe Flacco done. I also may have been wrong. Flacco is atrocious this year. I mean, the Ravens defense has 4 touchdowns. Flacco has 8. That’s not good. On the other side of this, Kevin Kolb has only been sacked 3 less times than Jay Cutler. Could we have consecutive 6-3 games? Cardinals +12.5

Dolphins +10 at Giants: Giants after a bye week? Giants after a bye week. Dolphins +10

Redskins +4.5 “at” Bills: This is in Toronto because, as usual, it’s great to take a team that’s performing well away from their home fans. The Redskins are featuring John Beck at QB, and no Tim Hightower, Santana Moss, or Chris Cooley. If you can find more than 10 points for the Redskins, take ‘em. Bills cover*

Lions -3.5 at Broncos: I can’t express to you how much it terrifies me to make this a Pick 4 game. I’m irrationally terrified of Tim Tebow. Lions cover*

Steelers +2 at Patriots: It’s well documented in gambling circles… but the Steelers might be secretly terrible and beating up on bad teams. We’ll never know this as they only have 3 more really challenging games left on their schedule. Patriots cover*

Browns +9 at Niners: I’m going to pick a team that scored six points last week on the road? No. Niners cover

Bengals -2.5 at Seahawks: Picking against the Seahawks as a home underdog is like being frustrated and kicking a box you think is empty. You feel really good about the tension it’s going to relieve until it snaps your ankle. Seahawks outright

Cowboys +3.5 at Eagles: I hate these games. I could see it 3 in either direction or 20 in either direction. That said, I’m falling back on my tried and true “Only take more than 3 points in an NFC East game if you have a really really good reason” rule. Cowboys +3.5

Monday

Chargers -4 at Chiefs: Same as the Seahawks idea above. The Chargers are in a second road game with the Pack coming up. The Chiefs are off a huge win and at home on a Monday. I have to take the points. Chiefs outright

Pick 4

Last Week: 2-2 (16-12)
Saints -11.5 over Rams — What’s that I said about massive point road favorites?
Bills -5.5 over Redskins
Lions -3.5 over Broncos — The power of Tebow terrifies me.
Patriots -2.5 over Steelers

SU: 9-4 (60-30)
ATS: 6-7 (44-46)

Sunday

Bears +1 vs. Bucs (London): Couple things here… the Bucs went to London on Tuesday to alleviate the effect of the time shift. The Bears went Thursday. Also, the Bucs are just plain better than the Bears. While the Bears sort of mixed up their formula last week to try to keep Cutler from getting murdered, I don’t see it working consistently. Sadly, a friend of mine moved to London this past year and she’s a fan of the Bears. Had I known before Wednesday this game was in London, I might have gone so I could see how live how little Londoners understand the not-beautiful game. Bucs cover

Redskins +3 at Panthers: How quickly the worm turned on the Redskins from surprise division winner to second run. But listen, Mike Shanahan is a genius. Listen to anyone and they’ll let you know. Panthers cover

Chargers +2 at Jets: I have no handle on the Jets. The talk radio action this week was Darrelle Revis hanging up on Mike Francesa after being pushed on his pass interference pick six last week. It certainly seems like the Jets are coming apart. All those guys who love playing for Rex because he “makes it fun” seem somewhat less happy now that they’re not winning. Losing breaks everything? Seems like one of those regular season games where Norv’s going to throw the playbook at Gang Green to shut up Rex’s face. Chargers outright

Seahawks +3 at Browns: Ugh. Just…….. ugh. Browns cover

Titans -3 at Texans: Given the amount I’ve actually seen the Titans play this season, even in highlights, I could be convinced that Vince Young is still the starter. Titans cover

Broncos +3 at Dolphins: I really wanted to take this as a Pick 4 game this week. Really badly. I mean, how often do you get a situation where the starting quarterback for the opposing team is going to be honored at the visiting team’s stadium for his college accomplishments? How many disciples of Tebow are going to be on site? The only reason this didn’t happen was because one of the members of the Pick 4 triumvirate is a UF fan who isn’t buying in. Broncos outright

Falcons +4.5 at Lions: Falcons on the road. Lions bounceback. Also the Falcons can’t possibly stop Calvin Johnson. Lions cover

Chiefs +3.5 at Raiders: I may have gone off a bit on Twitter this week about the quality of Carson Palmer coverage. Here’s what I’ve noticed: football writers hate Carson Palmer… football players like him. Football writers gamble and play fantasy football. Football players do way less of those things. I also need people to dial back the “mortgage the future” talk about this deal. Bartolo Colon for the entire Expos farm staff was mortgaging the future. Saving a potential playoff season for a draft pick is….. trading a draft pick. Stop it. Raiders cover

Steelers -4 at Cardinals: Could the Steelers have a more easy schedule this year? They’re begging to break down and the league just won’t let them. Steelers cover

Rams +10.5 at Cowboys: And the first of giant piles of points that’s involved in the Pick 4 this week. Everything sucks, so it’s just pick the super favorites to go bonkers. I don’t like it. Cowboys cover*

Vikings +7 at Packers: The dawning of the Christian Ponder against possibly the best team in the league? Yes, please. Packers cover*

Colts +14 at Saints: Hey look, more points…. hey look, the Curtis Painter Era comes to New Orleans. Yes, please. Saints cover*

Monday

Ravens -5.5 at Jaguars: You know how I know this week sucks? Because I’m rolling with the five highest point totals. Ravens cover

Pick 4

So we finally managed to win a week. We managed to win the week that the most other people won as well. A whopping $71 dollar return on investment. We’re in the money now, y’all. And by “in the money” I mean “still more than half in the hole.”

Last Week: 4-0 (14-10)
Cowboys -12.5 over Rams
Packers -8.5 over Vikings
Saints -14.5 over Colts
Ravens -7.5 over Jaguars

SU: 11-5, 9-4 (51-26)
ATS: 8-8, 7-6 (38-39)

I didn’t post last week. I was gloriously away from all Internet access at my parent’s camp. Here is my sheet. The problems with the Pick 4 continues. Team Three Man Gambling Weave continues to go roughly .500 by losing the games we all immediately agree on and winning the ones we agonize over.

Sunday

Rams +14.5 at Packers: I seem to be in agreement with the rest of the universe that this line can’t possibly be high enough. The Packers haven’t scored less than 40 at home and the Rams have only had one road game. It should be a whuppin. Who’s ready for the Internet backlash against Aaron Rodgers? I, for one, can’t wait. Packers cover*

Jaguars +13 at Steelers: There is no game this season in which I’ll pick the Jaguars. Even in games against a sloppy team against whom they should absolutely at least cover. This is one of those games but………. nope. Steelers cover

Eagles at Redskins (Pick): I have no good reason to pick the Eagles in this game, especially considering the tailspin of Philadelphia sports. Their linebackers are terrible and run prone (thank the Giants, everyone) which has cut down the effectiveness of Nnamdi. I’m taking the Redskins with the full realization that nearly every time the public thinks they know what’s going to happen in one of these games, it goes the other way. Redskins

Niners +5 at Lions: The sad part of the fun renaissance of the Lions is that I’m not going to get to see a snap of Lions football this year. Then they’ll be scheduled for eight primetime games next year and not be good. Can’t wait. Let’s slow down with calling the Niners decent for torching the Bucs. This is one of two picks I fought for hard on the Pick 4 (the Lions should be getting 7) and lost. Lions cover

Panthers +5.5 at Falcons: The second of two picks for which I fought and lost. I don’t think the Panthers are going to win, but it’s a division game and Cam Newton has been covering everything. The reason I lost was “nobody goes 16-0 against the spread” but, you know, stuff happens. Panthers +5.5

Colts +7 at Bengals: Too many points. I wanted this, too, but it was only my sixth most confident pick. The Bengals have done nothing to show me they deserve to be a touchdown favorite against anyone, much less a team that’s kinda/sorta starting to be OK with their downgrade a quarterback. The Bengals are that much better than the Chiefs? Really? Colts +7

Bills +3 at Giants: Something we Giants fans have learned over the last few years is that there are two or three games every season that Eli Manning is just going to throw three interceptions and be bad. Sometimes his receivers bail him out (the Victor Cruz juggle catch). Sometimes they don’t (the last play). But let’s be honest here: Eli hit Cruz in the hands, Cruz couldn’t handle it, and it went for a Pick6. Cruz holds on, the Giants have 2nd and Goal from the 5 and things go different. Them’s the breaks. Most importantly, Joe Reid gets to watch his team……… lose. Giants cover

Texans +6.5 at Ravens: My initial gut feeling on this game was to take the points. Then injuries. Ravens cover

Browns +7 at Raiders: I think the Raiders should have 10 in this game and I’d still probably take them. Raiders cover

Cowboys +7 at Patriots: The Cowboys have had a week to think about how bad they are. I’m probably overthinking this game, but Rob Ryan’s defense in Cleveland held the Patriot’s offense to 10 points last year. I’m taking the points……… and I’m probably wrong. Cowboys +7

Saints -5 at Bucs: Saints. That’s all I got. Saints cover

Vikings +3.5 at Bears: I argued hard for the Vikings in this game, too. Look, at some point we all need to admit that “Bears Defense” is no longer an argument to pick them. Jay Cutler might die this year, the Vikings have the best player on the field, and the vaunted Bears Defense is giving up over 24/game. Did we all not notice what Jahvid Best did last week? And now it’s Adrian Peterson? I can’t wait to be right about this. Vikings cover

Monday

Dolphins +8 at Jets: The Jets are due to lay a beating on a team. The Dolphins are ripe to be that team. Jets cover

Pick 4

Last Week: 2-2 (10-10)
Oakland -5.5 over Cleveland
Baltimore -6.5 over Houston
Green Bay -14.5 over St. Louis
New York Jets -7.5 over Miami

SU: 12-4 (31-17)
ATS: 9-7 (23-25)

Sunday

Lions +3 at Cowboys: This was the last pick dropped as part of the Pick 4 this week. Every single part of me says that Dallas has no answer for Calvin Johnson and it seems extremely likely that Suh will actually rip one of Tony Romo’s ribs out of his chest and BBQ it for a halftime snack. But I just envisioned myself sitting there in the midst of a 45-10 Dallas blowout seething in rage and feeling like an idiot for buying in to the Lions. However, for this, I’m buying in to the Lions. Lions outright

Saints -7.5 at Jaguars: Tom: My concern with NO is that they haven’t yet proven their defense can stop an NFL offense. Hulse: Good news. They’re not facing an NFL offense. They are facing the Jacksonville Jaguars. Saints cover*

Niners +5.5 at Eagles: The Giants finally ending their losing streak last week was tremendously satisfying. Listening to Vick whine about the beating he took was extra satisfying. In his slight defense, I was stunned Chris Canty didn’t draw a roughing call on the hit Sportscenter chose to replay for 72 straight hours. This line should be nine. It probably would have been if Vick was definitely playing. Eagles cover

Redskins +2 at Rams: This is a weird line. The Rams have been outscored like 100-20 in the last 3 weeks and they’re favored against an NFC east whose QB is good in every situation that isn’t “driving for a late score.” Why should this game even come down to a late score? Redskins outright

Titans +1.5 at Browns: If Chris Johnson doesn’t break out here, he’s probably not going to break out this season. He might get 75% of the plays. Titans outright

Bills -3 at Bengals: I’ve made a rule this year that I’m not going to fall in to gambler’s fallacies like “Let Down Game” and “Trap Game.” This game will be the test… this veritably SCREAMS huge let down game for the Bills. There is literally no other reason the Bills should in any way lose this game given the last three weeks. Bills cover

Vikings -1 at Chiefs: I have a feeling this will be Adrian Peterson’s big break out week. Or, I’m just really hoping it is as I’m 0-3, just traded for him, and really want a win. Vikings cover

Panthers +6 at Bears: This is the Pick 4 pick that I’ve done nothing but overthink since it was locked in. Like, Carolina has no pass rush… Jay Cutler picks teams apart who have no pass rush… Bears are home… Cam Newton is facing his first “good” defense. Boy, I can’t wait to be mad tomorrow. Bears cover*

Steelers +2 at Texans: For some insane reason, this is our 1:00 game tomorrow. I would rather we get the Bills. I think this Texans nonsense comes crashing of the rails this weekend. Steelers outright

Falcons -4.5 at Seahawks: I see the Falcons have become this year’s team that I’ll never choose correctly. Seahawks +4.5

Giants -2.5 at Cardinals: A win over a quarterback making his first NFL start followed by two straight losses make the Cardinals a 2.5 point favorite against the Giants, who will feature Osi for the first game this season? Yes, please. Giants cover*

Dolphins +8.5 at Chargers: Logically nothing says the Chargers shouldn’t annihilate the Dolphins. Logic seems to have nothing to do with the Chargers in the first quarter of the season and the Dolphins on the road, however. Dolphins +8.5

Broncos +13 at Packers: The Pack hasn’t really been good at covering this year. I smell garbage time cover. Or Packers’ smashing the crap out them. Either one, really. Broncos +13

Patriots -5.5 at Raiders: Oh Oakland……… Oh poor Oakland. Patriots cover

Jets +3.5 at Ravens: Love this line. And by love, I mean I love the extra half-point. Jets +3.5

Monday

Colts +9.5 at Bucs: Boy, the Colts aren’t a whole lot of fun to watch without Peyton Manning, are they? This is why the Monday Night Football package seems like a terrible investment… which I guess is why they reupped until like 2020 so what do I know. Colts +9.5

Pick 4

Last Week: 1-3 (6-6)

Eagles -6.5 over Niners
Giants -1.5 over Arizona
Bears -6.5 over Panthers
Saints -7.5 over Jaguars

SU: 11-5 (19-13)
ATS: 8-8 (14-18)

Sunday

Niners +1.5 at Bengals: I still don’t buy the Bengals at all, but are the Niners really a road dog that I want to take? Bengals cover

Patriots -9 at Bills: The yearly rule of “pick the Patriots to cover until they don’t” applies here. It’s worked the last few years. I’m not super-confident about it here but going with it anyway. Patriots cover

Texans +4 at Saints: Not. A. Chance. Saints cover

Giants +7.5 at Eagles: Speaking of rules, the NFC East “never pick an NFC East game with more than 3 points unless you’re really really sure” is getting tested pretty hard in this young season. The Giants are in trouble. However, this game is likely closer than everyone thinks. The Eagles DBs are not to be messed with. Their LBs… not so dominant. The Giants have two good running backs that should be able to wear down an already not that great core of linebackers and turning this in to the kind of boring, grind it out game that makes for bad TV and keeps Vick and that offense on the sidelines. That’s pretty much all the Giants have… and everyone knows it. Giants +7.5

Dolphins +3 at Browns: I appear to be the only person on the planet who doesn’t believe the Dolphins are as bad as they’ve played. However, when even Dolphins fans are telling you to move on, maybe it’s time to move on. Browns cover

Broncos +5.5 at Titans: At different points this year, I’ve said “they might not win 3 games this year” about both of these teams. Smells like too many points. Broncos +5.5

Lions -3.5 at Vikings: As it turns out, the reports or Donovan McNabb’s demise were……… pretty accurate, actually. While I expect there to be a game or two where the Lions just fall apart, they should torch the Vikings. Lions cover

Jaguars +3 at Panthers: While the league is scheduled to catch up with Cam Newton shortly, I don’t imagine the Jags will be the one to do it. Cam Newton finally picks up his first win here and I get an issue of SI next week with him on the cover. If I could parlay these two things occurring, I would. Panthers cover

Chiefs +14.5 at Chargers: This is the diciest Pick 4 selection of week 3. The Chargers are coming home after losing to the Patriots. This has all the trademarks of “Chargers open a can on a bad divisional opponent at home.” I shouldn’t be terrified but 3 score covers are always a dicey proposition. That’s why we shouldn’t have picked this. Chargers cover

Jets -3.5 at Raiders: The Jets being a road favorite here is concerning for no other reason than their line is already in shambles. Could the Raiders actually steal this game from the Jets? I think it’s possible. Raiders outright

Ravens -4 at Rams: Last week was a big let-down for both the Ravens and the Rams. After watching the Rams last week, I don’t know if you can fix that many mistakes in a week… especially with a good team staring down your barrel. Ravens cover

Falcons +1 at Bucs: Don’t understand this at all. Are people still that scared of week one? Were they afraid Matt Ryan wasn’t playing? Either way, this seems like a lay-up. Falcons outright

Cardinals -3 at Seahawks: I’m still pretty sure the Cardinals are terrible. The Seahawks aren’t much better but it’s should be really hard for a mediocre-to-bad to grab a win there — Tavaris Jackson or not. Seahawks outright

Packers -3.5 at Bears: Given what happened to Jay Cutler last week, it’s really tough to pick them against a moderately decent pass rush. The Bears defense, on the other hand, is good enough to bully a bad offense. The Pack doesn’t have a bad offense. Packers cover

Steelers -10.5 at Colts: This has all the makings of a backdoor cover but…. the corpse of Kerry Collins is going to get eaten by the Steelers. Also, if I ever use the sentence “Warren Sapp said” to justify a pick: punch me in the face. Steelers cover

Monday

Redskins +6 at Cowboys: NFC East rule applies here. Dallas is struggling in general and they struggle mightily in prime time. Rex Grossman with time is fine. Big score, close game. Redskins +6

Pick 4

Last Week: 2-2 (5-3)

Chargers -14.5 over Chiefs
Steelers -10.5 over Colts
Falcons +1.5 over Bucs
Saints -3.5 over Texans

I’m forgoing the “results” portion of the picks this year. Instead, I’m contributing to Pulse Sports This Week’s Thoughts And Commentary with Glazer (Aaron, not Jay), Rhett Davis, and Kyle Sparks. Of course, I didn’t exactly make many calls last week to be impressed by.

Sunday
Bears +7 at Saints: My first thought was that this spread is insanely high given last week’s results. The Bears defense shut down a decent offense while Saints destroyed a not very good defense. We want to give the Saints the benefit of the doubt given how good they’ve been the last couple of years. I think this spread indicates that and is at least 3 points higher than it should be. Bears +7

Chiefs +7.5 at Lions: We debated for quite some time taking this as a Pick 4 pick this week but ended up backing down simply because the Lions are known to let down everyone just when you think they have something… in New York, we call this Being The Jets. Ultimately, I don’t think the Lions are good enough and the Chiefs bad enough to support a 2-score spread. Chiefs +7.5

Jaguars +10 at Jets: Speaking of Being The Jets, I resisted this as a Pick 4 selection for much of the week, primarily because they’re the Jets. Unfortunately, the final picks settled on being either this, GB -10.5 on the road (blocked by a friend who’s convinced Vegas is going to make a fortune on people picking GB this wee), Minnesota (blocked by the other two), Bills -3.5 (entirely related to the Raiders schedule), or New England -5.5 (dicey). We settled on Luke McKeown on the road against a tough defense. Jets cover

Raiders +3.5 at Bills: While I like to somewhat dismiss things not really related to actually football talent, playing late Monday night and then turning around and playing on the East Coast 6 days later is a lot to ask. However, the Raiders look barely north of awful and the Bills looked a little too good, but still enough to hold a home game against what should be a kind of exhausted team. Bills cover

Cardinals +4 at Redskins: Rex Grossman looked a little too good last week against a fourth string secondary and a second string line. Even still, they should have barely won if not for 1) a tipped interception that went for a touchdown and 2) a phenominally stupid personal foul by Antrelle Rolle. Of course, the Redskins are going to look a little TOO good against a bad Arizona defense leading to what will probably a week of “Don’t forget Rex Grossman took a team to a Super Bowl” storylines. Redskins cover

Ravens -5.5 at Titans: Defense travels? Yep, defense travels. Ravens cover

Seahawks -14 at Steelers: Warren Sapp of all people dialed me back on the Pittsburgh pick. He said the Steelers defense and receivers got old out of nowhere and once that happens it doesn’t fix itself in the same season. Home or not, he said anyone can cover Hines Ward now and trickery to cover age only works for so long. Upset brewing? Seahawks +14

Packers -10.5 at Panthers: This pick being blocked in Pick 4 was more for reasons that we’re expecting two garbage time scores by Cam Newton, followed by a preening Rush Limbaugh claiming victory. Panthers +10.5

Bucs +3 at Vikings: I wanted this as the fourth Pick 4 selection. The Lions rushed for 100 yards against the Bucs last week. AP should blow that out of the water and have the type of day that ruins fantasy leagues. Vikings cover

Browns -2.5 at Colts: The Browns ruined Pick 4 last week and, I’m certain, many people’s knockout leagues. I’ll give it one more week before deciding Kerry Collins can’t run that offense. Colts outright

Cowboys -3 at Niners: It’s good to see last year’s trend of people handing games to the Jets is continuing this year. The Niners are a mediocre team and nobody is better at beating up mediocre teams than Dallas. Though I’m not sure what it’s finally going to take for people to admit that maybe, just maybe, Tony Romo isn’t cut out for high stress situations. Cowboys cover

Texans -3 at Dolphins: It’s fourth and goal from the 1. You have Reggie Bush in the backfield who’s been running all over the Patriots all day. And you throw a fade? Really? That and the ensuing 99 yard touchdown demoralized the Dolphins to the point they barely played a down the rest of the game. I think the fact this is only 3 points tell you, mostly, what Vegas thinks of the Texans. Nothing yet. Dolphins outright

Chargers +6.5 at Patriots: My yearly strategy remains “pick the Pats to cover until they don’t.” Patriots cover

Bengals +6 at Broncos: The Broncos won an ugly, ugly game on Monday night. Could the Bengals possibly be a mass Ewing Theory candidate? Stay tuned. Bengals +6

Eagles -2 at Falcons: People can’t get off the Falcons bandwagon fast enough. I’m taking them because F*ck The Eagles. Falcons outright

Monday

Rams +6 at Giants: I’m not hitting the panic button on the Giants season quite yet… but if the Rams – Stephen Jackson beat them, I’ll open the glass cover. Giants Cover

Pick 4

Last Week: 3-1.
NYJ -10.5 over JAX
BAL -5.5 over TEN
DAL -3.5 over SF
NYG -6.5 over STL

I considered not doing the picks this year. Of course, this was during the downtime in the blog when I wasn’t posting at all. As of about six days ago, I find out that the project I’d been working on for 8 months was 1) discontinued and 2) not even being released up to the current version. That’s after about 8 months of 60 hour weeks. The best part, the reason for the discontinuation was that it was unusably complicated — the self-same argument I’d been making for six of those eight months. Good news: I was right. Bad news: I wasted 8 months. Since I still pay in my cheap picks league for free, I figured why not.

Second thing, after spending last year reading about the Las Vegas Super Contest, a friend and I strongly considered entering it. Ultimately, it was too much, but we did find a reasonable close facsimile. For $10/week + $20 fee you pick four games against the spread. If you win all four, you share in the weeks pot (389 players, $3,890 weekly prize). If nobody hits all four, the pot rolls over in to the next week. A weekly 4-way parlay card that pays out like a 10-way parlay card? Yes please.

Third thing, I won my big money fantasy league last year and wound up missing the first five rounds of the draft this year. Because of that, I decided it was an all-autodraft season. Fortunately, my big money league drafted Aaron Rodgers in the first round and we saw how that worked out in week one. The Packers were worth 50 points this week. Yay.

Thursday

Saints +4 at Packers: Twitter pick. While I’d like to point out how everyone always overrates the Super Bowl Champion, I had a hard time believing that offense would’ve taken a step back. Combine that with the Saints still suspect defense and opening in Lambeau and, well, 4 wasn’t enough. Saints Cover

Sunday

Steelers +2.5 at Ravens: Early on in Pick 4, this became one of the two contentious picks of the weeks. I split the contest with 2 other guys. One was pro Pittsburgh. One was pro Ravens. I was anti-picking this game at all. However, I tend to think Pittsburgh is still slightly better than the Ravens. If Simmons made any good arguments this week, it’s that the team with the most consistency is probably the safe pick in week one. Pittsburgh outright

Lions +2 at Bucs: I don’t see the Bucs coming up the ranks of the NFC South this season on the heels of JAAAAASH Freeman, but I do see the Lions finally making a run at the North. That was weird even to type. Lions outright

Falcons -3 at Bears: Yeah what I said about the North and South in the last paragraph, but pretty much the opposite. Falcons cover

Bills +6.5 at Chiefs: There is a little part of me that thinks the Bills could win 2nd place in the division this week. A very, very little part. Chiefs cover

Colts +4 at Texans: This was the second most contentious pick in the first week of the pick four draft. I think the Colts won’t be that bad — I think they’re a well-oiled offense than can probably be run by a competent quarterback. Statistically, Kerry Collins had an OK season for the Titans last year… they were just a team in a bad, dramatic situation dealing with a quarterback controversy. When Collins is protected, he’s fine. What is the Colts’ line really good at doing? Of course, we could also be on the verge of finding out why Peyton should win the MVP every year. One of those two things. Colts outright

Eagles -5 at Rams: I read a book this summer about how the human brain works and learned about this thing called “confirmation bias” where a person tends to cherry pick facts to support their case even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary (which turned out to be an amazingly timely reference given it’s 9/11 and the Truthers are out in force). I’m probably doing that here. But, can we all remember that the Eagles won the division last season only because Michael Vick went in to All-Madden mode for seven minutes. Put it this way — I’m more terrified of what the Eagles will be when Vince Young takes over the reigns in two years. Rams +5

Bengals +6.5 at Browns: I have no idea what’s going on in Cincinnati. I don’t really know what’s going on in Cleveland either but I’m going back to the consistency argument. And, look, I know some people have had a hard-on for a couple years deriding Carson Palmer and continued with a “how much can they really miss him” storyline this year, but it can get much worse than 26 touchdowns and a 60% completion rate. Browns cover

Titans +3 at Jaguars: I leave this to my friend Mike, one of the two guys I split the Pick 4 with: The Jags just dumped their QB and are gonna rely on Luke McKown. Considering that everyone figured they’d stink with Garrard….I can’t see them scoring at all. Tennessee still has weapons, and the Jags, again, stink. I’d have wanted those 2.5 even WITH Garrard playing. That’s a lock. Titans outright

Giants -3 at Redskins: That whole confirmation bias again. The only thing I’ll say about the Giants is this — the Giants have been an absurdly overinjured squad the last decade. The Mets have been an absurdly overinjured team since 2007. The relation between the two is the Hospital For Special Surgery in Manhattan. Maybe it’s time to admit the HSS sucks at sports’ medicine. Also, it’s Rex Grossman. Come on. Giants cover

Panthers +7 at Cardinals: The Panthers are in an awkward situation this year. They finished in last but there’s a good chance that the other teams that finished in last (Arizona, Dallas, Detroit) are poised for good years. The Panthers are…. not. A new staff has had 4 weeks to try and put the team back together. Cardinals cover

Seahawks +5.5 at Niners: I really wish I had some idea of what happened on the West Coast… but unless people get shot, we don’t hear about it. Going with the coach… that’s about it. Seahawks +5.5

Vikings +8.5 at Chargers: Donovan McNabb and Adrian Peterson, eh? I find this intriguing. Vikings +8.5

Cowboys +4.5 at Jets: For the first time in recent memory, I think it’s possible that the Cowboys are actually being underrated due to all the Dream Team nonsense in Philadelphia. The Cowboys travel well to New York and they’re getting about two more points than they should. Cowboys +4.5

Monday

Patriots -7 at Dolphins: The Dolphins are staring down the barrel of an epic-sized bad season. The Patriots are looking at being… the Patriots. That said, the Dolphins tend “play the Pats tough tat home” so I hate to go against that grain in Week 1. Dolphins +7

Raiders +3 at Broncos: I really am stunned at the number of people talking themselves in to Kyle Orton. It’s like there are four quarterbacks in the league whom, every year, a selective case of mass Alzheimer’s hits everyone and they forget that Kyle (Randy) Orton is not a good quarterback. And we do get to be treated to another whole season of baffling Tebow hatred. Good times. Broncos cover

Pick 4
Tennessee +2.5
Dallas +4.5
Detroit +2.5
Cleveland -6.5

1) About three years ago, Inside Pulse’s own Matthew Michaels invited me to join a sports discussion e-mail group. It’s a word of mouth e-mail list started in 2000 by three guys (including Matt) that’s grown to include, at its peak, about forty. Currently, it’s my primary source of sports and political news and a friendly, safe, closed forum for the two types of arguments that people can never win; Sports and politics. Two years ago, the group decided to gather at Bally’s in Atlantic City for the Super Bowl. Bally’s, unfortunately, decided that a proper “suite” for a dozen guys to watch football was a slightly-larger-than-normal room with two king beds. I’ll leave it to the reader to imagine the enjoyment shared by a dozen guys sitting on king beds watching football. This year, since a few of the members have become Borgata regulars, the gathering was moved there. I am not a regular at the Borgata — I generally prefer Harrah’s — but I’m a team player so I booked a room.

2) Since some members are a little more cash-strapped, the strategy was for the folks who wanted a bed to book the rooms and the folks who didn’t care if they got bed or floor to pay one price for bed and a cheaper price for couch or floor. Two years ago, I went the floor route. At 33, I officially considered myself past the point of sleeping on a floor, so I booked one of the rooms. Two days before the reservation, the Borgata e-mailed asking if there was anything they could do for my stay. After checking availability, I asked for a room upgrade so I could bring more 30-year-old men to a casino for a weekend of drinking. The Borgata customer service people got back to me on Saturday. After I’d been checked in for 12 hours. After people had made other plans. Well-played (1), Borgata.

3) By far, the best part of Saturday was dinner at the in-house Old Homestead Steakhouse. Aside from slightly gritty oysters and an inexplicably underwhelming lobster mac and cheese side, the meal was a home run. The 34-oz “signature” Gotham Rib Steak was a perfect medium rare and absolutely delicious. The mashed potatoes were smooth perfection and the creamed spinach was fantastic. I also discovered a great new Pinot Noir — Northwest Wine’s Two Worlds — from Oregon. I’m not really confident enough in my wine tasting skills to suggest it… I just know it was good and it went well with steak. So, huzzah.

4) For a hotel that’s less than ten years old, the Borgata is already incredibly outdated. My 34th floor room, while nice, was jarringly anachronistic with a 27-inch, standard-definition console television and a lack of WiFi (even for a charge) in the building. At over $400 for Saturday night, I should be able to check my e-mail. However, when reading this criticism, one should keep in mind that the Boardwalk casinos haven’t upgraded their furniture or decor since the 1970s.

5) The Borgata’s casino floor, for me, remains the best in Atlantic City. There is almost always an open table for the desired table minimum and the crowd is less cranky than at the town’s other casinos. In that sense, the Borgata has succeeded in their Vegas East vibe. In the other sense, they still have their irritating habit of raising their table minimums on Saturday nights to the point that nearly nobody plays and they leave those minimums in place until well in to Sunday morning. I know this, because I was on the casino floor until 5:30 AM and the table minimums had not yet dropped. I presume this was to catch the wide array of drunks coming out of the clubs with cash left to burn. Speaking of…

6) I was initially really annoyed at the Borgata for the incredible price disparity on Saturday vs. Sunday night. I had assumed that Super Bowl Sunday would be relatively expensive. However, as Atlantic City still lacks sportsbooks, the Super Bowl is not nearly the big deal it is in Vegas. On the other hand, there were a stunning number of people who came to the casino specifically to go to one of the two clubs inside. The floor throbbed music in all corners, be it the techno stuff coming from mur.mur. or Mixx, the dance stuff at B Bar (where our group spent much of Saturday due to its convenient position in the casino floor), or the mediocre cover band jamming rock in the Gypsy Bar. I was somewhat annoyed at the line waiting to get in to B Bar until I actually got in to B Bar. The casino only lets a smallish number in at a time so it doesn’t get too packed to get a drink. If it makes sense, the wait was annoying, but the uncrowded inside was fantastic. Most of Saturday was spent milling between B Bar and the craps tables just outside. As the drunks stumbled out of the clubs, the casino crowded up, the table minimums went up, and the prostitutes went to work. Seriously. Room rates explained.

7) The guys with status at the casino were comped a free suite Sunday night for the game. This suite was much better than the one at Bally’s. The room had a 42-inch TV on the wall, and enough couches and seating for everyone. A separate king-sized bed room and a bathroom that may have been the size of my entire room rounded it out. While the room was nice, there were three things about this that made it not so great. 1) while the Borgata’s claim that each suite contains a 42-inch HDTV is technically true, they fail to mention that there is no actual HD feeds. Again, jarringly anachronistic to watch the Super Bowl on an HDTV in standard definition. 2) Room service does not include pizza, so to get pizza delivered for the game we had to walk down to the casino floor, to the cafeteria, order the pizza and wings, wait 25-minutes, and carry it back to the room. Also, due to the Borgata’s policy of requiring ID to use your comp card, everyone who was pitching for the pizza had to go down. 3) Probably the most annoying, the Borgata has no beer store inside so we had to go on a beer run. That in itself was no big deal. The hotel’s policy of not allowing people to bring more than a six-pack of beer each up to the room was really, really annoying. While I partially understand the policy, it’s their choice to allow the hotel to be overwhelmed with the under-24 Jersey crowd on Saturday nights. Maybe applying an annoying policy to the vast majority of your hotel guests who are over 30 is a bad idea? Long story short: it was far too hard to get beverages and pizza up to a room to watch a standard-def Super Bowl. I’m a little old to have to fill a suitcase with beer to sneak it in.

8) After the game, we wandered around the casino through a surprising number of thankfully silent Steeler fans (which, for the record, I would have called the game right had I posted but would have taken the under). After another relatively decent craps run, we hit up Noodles Of The World which had a fairly decent late-night Singapore Mai Fun and the best five cities ever included on a logo.

9) I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention Bread & Butter. When wandering around slightly hungover on Sunday Morning, there was nothing that could have revitalized me harder than a butter filled croissant with bacon, egg, and cheese accompanied with a buttered and fried corn muffin. Also, absolutely delicious coffee. Borgata, if nothing else, hits a home run with their food.

10) While the Borgata is still, by far, the nicest casino in Atlantic City, a scant eight-years later it’s reaching the point where one can make the “that’s like saying the nicest guy on death row” joke. I mean, Mohegan Sun — a Mohegan tribe casino opened in 1996 — has upgraded all rooms to at least have wired access. And for even the suites to not have an HD Feed for the televisions… come on, guys. I realize that having people in the rooms of a casino is not the ultimate goal, but if the desire is to have a crowd that isn’t using walkers and Rascals, they should probably keep the hotel up-to-date with at least five-year-old technology.

Ravens +3 at Steelers: All the stuff I’ve said about the Bears and Jets all season — that they got a ton of lucky breaks and free wins — also applies to the Steelers. It also doesn’t hurt that the officials, for whatever reason, love the Steelers. That said — Baltimore is better, should be better, and play in Pittsburgh enough that they should be able to break through here. That said, there is no CHANCE I’d put money on this game in any real way. Ravens outright, under 37

Packers +2.5 at Falcons: Here’s my problem with this game. I literally did not see one second of a Falcons game this season. They were never on in the afternoon, they didn’t play the Giants or Jets, and I can’t remember if they were even on a national game that I missed. I know nothing about this team other than they compiled a 13-3 record against the NFC West (bleh), AFC North (1/2 bleh), and NFC South. I desperately want to find some reason I should be more pro-Falcons other than “they’re the 1-seed at home”. That should really be enough… but it’s not. Or maybe I’m just trying to talk myself in to the Packers having to go to Seattle next week. The only thing I”m relatively certain of here is the over… and I’m even dicey on that. Packers outright, over 44

Seahawks +10 at Chicago: As I look and see that I picked both road teams to win on Saturday and it concerns me that I’m considering taking a third road team… especially a third road team that finished the season 7-9. The problem is that after watching Inside The NFL this week, I became thoroughly convinced that I would follow Pete Carroll in to a volcano. On the other side, I’m looking at Lovie Smith — who only really has a job this year because the Bears don’t fire coaches — and Jay Cutler who, in all honestly, seems like he’s mildly autistic in addition to his diabetes. I haven’t thought the Bears were good all season. I haven’t thought the Seahawks were good all season. But I think the Seahawks have the better coach and quarterback. I can’t help it. Seahawks outright, over 41

Jets +8.5 at Patriots: Everyone except people who live in New York thinks the Jets are dead men walking in to New England this weekend. I also think they’re dead men walking. I know the Pats haven’t exactly destroyed top-tier teams down the stretch, but doesn’t some of this come back to the whole “good coach with two weeks to prepare” thing? Let’s be honest here… we all know what this game is going to be. The Patriots are going to hardcore defend the run and put the game on Mark Sanchez to win or lose… on the road… in New England… against Brady. Interesting sub-plot for me in this game. I’ve been on the Peyton Manning side of the Manning/Brady debate. As a firm believer in the “we WAY overrate the playoffs when we talk about legacy” theory, Manning’s run of insane regular-season statistics have always won me over. But, at a certain point, knowing your limitations is part of what makes someone great — and Peyton’s inability to turn game-planning and play-calling over to the guys paid to do that in the playoffs might be the black mark on his resume that I needed to get on Brady’s side. If Brady beats the Jets here, I’m moving to the Brady side of the argument. Probably forever. Patriots cover, Over 45

Gambling

Current Pool: $2,528 + $450 = $2,978

$300 – Ravens (+155) over Steelers
$400 – Packers +2.5 over Falcons.
$500 – 6-pt Tease: Packers +8.5, Patriots -2.5, Pats/Jets over 39.
$500 – Seahawks +10 over Bears.

Saints -10.5 at Seahawks: Quite often, when so many people are all the way to one side, it’s nearly impossible to talk yourself in to the other side. Now, I realize the Seahawks finished as the worst playoff team in history — but have we all just decided to forget that they play on one of the best homefields in football, that they’re a cold-weather team hosting a dome team in January, and they have a coach that helped carry a 4-win team to 7 wins? Doesn’t this just smell like a game where bookies make their money this week? Seahawks +10.5, Over 44

Jets +2.5 at Colts: A friend of mine was relaying a story last night. He heard a radio interview with a Jets linebacker who said that in the third quarter of last season’s AFC Championship game, Peyton got under center, pointed at each defensive player, and said what they were going to do on the play. He was right. Maybe he just owns Rex Ryan. Colts cover, Over 44.5

Ravens -3 at Chiefs: The trend here, I think, will be to pick the Chiefs as the first round upset. The things I said about the Seahawks above also apply to the Chiefs, with the added bonus that they’re actually a more talented team. The Ravens were a bad draw for the Chiefs in the first round for the simple fact that defense travels well, but with the age of Ray Lewis, Ed Reed possibly dealing with his brother’s death, and the fact that Flacco has had his tougher moments in big games — I do wonder if the Ravens can walk in to Arrowhead and just win. I have a hard time betting the Chiefs though. Ravens cover, under 40.5

Packers +2.5 at Eagles: The Eagles voluntarily took their foot off the gas in that Tuesday night game against Minnesota. They were hungover against the Cowboys. They haven’t played a real game in three weeks and they haven’t really played a solid quarter since the Giants Game That Never Happened. While the Bears’ defense stuffed the Pack last week, the Eagles defense isn’t nearly as good and, well, this is the upset I’m most confident in… and there’s always one. Packers outright, Under 46

Gambling

$500 – Colts -2.5 over Jets
$500 – Ravens -3 over Chiefs
$200 – Seahawks +10.5 over Saints
$200 – Packers +2.5 over Eagles