TDL’s Sports, Wrestling, & Otherwise

Let’s see how “.500 Season 2008″ goes. As a quick update, my cobbled together line-up went to 4-0 last week even though worthless Pierre Thomas managed 1 carry for 1 yard. This week, we’re calling on Warrick Dunn @Denver and Mushin Muhammed @KC to bring the Superstars to a 5-0 start.

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Indianapolis Colts -3 at Houston Texans: The Colts are favored because of reputation, nothing else. Steve Slaton is going to rush for somewhere between 100 and 7,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. Texans outright.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Baltimore Ravens: The battle of undefeated teams. Also, the battle of teams that I never, ever choose correctly. Here, I also have no idea, so I’ll go with the home team. Ravens outright.

San Diego Chargers -7 at Miami Dolphins: This game would probably be +10 if not for the Dolphins stunning performance against the Patriots last week. If the Dolphins weren’t home, I wouldn’t even consider taking the Dolphins here, but a large spread coming off a huge win and a fired up crowd. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. Dolphins +7

Kansas City Chiefs +10 at Carolina Panthers: If the Chiefs are getting 10 after actually winning last week, what would this spread have been if they lost? That said, the Panthers are home and the Chiefs defense is not holding down Steve Smith. On the other hand, I give Julius Peppers the nod at holding LJ down until the Chiefs have to go to their disastrous passing game. Panthers cover.

Washington Redskins +6 at Philadelphia Eagles: Not only would I take the Redskins here just because it’s more than my 3 point NFC East rule, but I’m not quite so sure that the Redskins aren’t going to win this outright. The Eagles plan to have Westbrook back but Donovan McNabb is still proving that he has some fourth quarter performance anxiety. If the Eagles had no answer for Romo/TO/Barber, I’m not sure why anyone is convinced they have an answer for Campbell/Moss/Portis. Redskins +6.

Chicago Bears -3 at Detroit Lions: At least the chance to improve is in sight, Lions’ fans. Bears cover.

Atlanta Falcons +10 at Green Bay Packers: Just last week I said that I wasn’t going to pick the Falcons on the road. But, then again, the Packers have seemed exceptional at home. Packers cover.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: The Giants are historically awful after a bye week. They don’t have their best receiver which means it’s going to be relatively difficult for them to put a team away. If the Giants win this by a touchdown, I’ll be surprised. Seahawks +9

Tampa Bay Bucs at Denver Broncos: Tampa is obviously better than I thought. Denver is not. Bucs outright.

New England Patriots -3.5 at San Francisco 49ers: Belicheck had a reputation for destroying his teams off losses. If the lackluster defense the Patriots brought against the Dolphins is any indication, the Patriots are going to be in rare form this week. If they’re not, we might have to re-address the Patriots as a “good” team and remember that they’re a defense built to play with a lead brought by a great passing offense…. who has neither a good passer or a decent runner to fall back on. Patriots cover.

Buffalo Bills +1.5 at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are favored here for 3 reasons. 1) The aggregate record of NFL teams after giving up 50 points the week before is like 1,000-2. 2) The Cards have been really good at home this year. 3) It’s a huge game for the Cardinals. If they don’t respond to a whuppin’ they won’t respond. The Bills have been blessed the last couple of weeks and the karma has to run out at some point. Cardinals cover.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will come out and blow the doors off a bad team and the national media will all start fellating them again. We’ll immediately forget that they have no defense to speak of and that the Bengals are playing either a gimpy QB or a back-up QB. All will be right with the world again. Then just wait until they destroy the Rams last week. They’ll be the best team in the universe!! Cowboys cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags, at some point, snuck over the line to “good team” from “underachieving team” when no one was paying attention. The Steelers seem to be just struggling by. The Steelers blitz will probably be neutered by Fred Taylor. Jags cover.

Monday
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at New Orleans Saints: Spreads on the Vikings are going to be very odd this year because Adrian Peterson is one of those guys who can pop-off for a 300 yard night on any given Sunday. But… with Deuce back I think the Saints are going to be very difficult to beat. Also, this is the third consecutive week that the Monday night game has featured huge fantasy football guys. Saints cover.

Five Good Spreads

5 - Washington +6 over Philly
4 - Panthers -10 over Chiefs
3 - Bears -3 over Detroit
2 - Seahawks +9 over Giants
1 - Cowboys -14 over Bengals

Last week I had to travel up to Albany because Copier Company X put on a booze cruise for our branch. While I was up there, I was talking with one of my friends how I can’t get better than 9 wins this season. That led us to decide that you could probably win a pool if you could average 8 or 9 wins a week and avoid the one catastrophic 4-win week that invariably kicks you out of contention that almost always occurs in the last four weeks.

I think I may have gotten it out of the way much earlier this year.

L/L - Chiefs +9.5 over Broncos, 33-19, Broncos cover: As I was filling my picks in to Sportsline on Friday, I specifically looked at this game and thought “man, this is the definition of a bad bet.” You had, likely, 80% of the money on the Broncos, a team that was obviously going to give a chirpy LJ the ball a lot against a team that really hasn’t proven it has a run defense, and a quarterback with inflated stats going on the road. Then I picked the Broncos anyway. Stupid.

L/L - Browns +3.5 over Bengals, 20-12, Bengals cover: The Bengals played the game of their lives against the Giants and lost. Cleveland was going to play the game of their lives against a team that had already played the game of their lives. Stupid again.

W/L - Jaguars -7 over Texans, 30-27, Jags cover: I didn’t expect to win this, so I’m fine with it.

W/W - Jets -3 over Cardinals, 56-35, Jets cover: Strap in, Favre-haters. The Favrelatio will be stunning this week. On the bright side, one former Shea Stadium tenant decided to send the old girl out with honor.

W/W - Saints -7 over Niners, 31-17, Saints cover: The Pierre Thomas pick-up for the Ms. L Superstars did not go as planned with his 1 run for 1 yard. However, We still won thanks to Jason Campbell and Santana Moss.

W/W - Panthers -7 over Falcons, 24-9, Panthers cover: Pick the Falcons at home. Pick against them on the road. Got it.

L/L - Titans -3.5 over Vikings, 30-17, Vikings outright: OK, I give up. The Vikings are apparently horrifically overrated and the Titans are going to the Super Bowl. I don’t get it.

L/L - Bucs -3 over Packers, 30-21, Packers outright: Apparently it’s time to stop picking against the Bucs, too.

W/W - Bills -9 over Rams, 31-14, Bills cover: pick against them until they cover.

W/W - Chargers -7 over Raiders, 28-18, Chargers cover: You know, I can understand that franchises can go through rough patches — but at least lose the game early. Is there any reason that the Raiders have to torture their fans like the Mets do?

L/W - Redskins +11 over Cowboys, 26-24, Redskins +11: Couple of things good for the Giants here. 1) The Cowboys are not nearly as indestructible as they’ve looked — their pass coverage, while serviceable, has no answer for a speedy receiver like Santana Moss. 2) This is the second straight game that featured a top ten back that the Cowboys couldn’t stop. Brian Westbrook broke through for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 2. Clinton Portis went for 131 yards last night. Romo also threw a backbreaking interception. In a shocking bit of deliciousness that surprised no one, TO decided to tell the media that he’s not getting enough looks. I’d like to thank Chris Collinsworth for pointing out that, in fact, 1/3rd of the Cowboys offensive plays went to Owens which he converted into 7 catches. In fairness, TO hasn’t turned on a quarterback in a full two years. He is due. On top of that, Tank Johnson was whining that the Redskins overcelebrated on the Star. Dear Lord, please let this team complete and totally melt down.

L/L - Bears +3 over Eagles, 24-20, Eagles Cover: In a bittersweet moment, I lost this pick but the Correl Buckhalter pick-up did help the Ms. L Superstars go to 4-0 on the season. The rogue GM from Copier Company X is running wild over the Large Accounting Firm. After watching this game, it occurred to me why Donovan McNabb is continually overrated. He just can’t get it done in the 2nd half.

L/W - Steelers cover: I watched this game. Ben Roethlisberger has just lost something. I don’t know what it is. He seems completely uninterested in playing football. Maybe it’s the plastering he took last week… I don’t know. I’m not buying the Steelers anymore on any spreads over 3 points. Unless it’s the Rams. I still the Giants got the best pick in that draft.

The Five Good Spreads
5 points: Bills -9 over Rams - W
4 points: Chargers -7 over Raiders - W
3 points: Packers +3 over Bucs - L
2 points: Saints -7 over Niners - W
1 point: Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs - L

As I suddenly remember why I stopped doing pick 5s.

Standings
Straight Up: 6-7 (32-28)
Spread: 7-6 (29-30-1)
Point Pool: 11/15 (28/60 - .467)

W/W - Falcons -4 over Chiefs, 38-14, Falcons cover. No real surprises here. I wonder what the record is for points given up in a season and whether or not the Chiefs can challenge it.

W/L - Bills -9.5 over Raiders, 24-23, Raiders +9.5 (* - last minute change to Bills cover). Because some fan made a totally convincing argument about why this spread made sense, I changed my pick in my spread pools to Bills cover. I will, in fairness, take the win against the spread away from myself because I deserve it for changing my mind… which is never ever a good idea and I need to be reminded. The other lesson in this is to never take spread advice from a guy who’s as good against the spread as the Chiefs are against football teams.

W/W - Titans -5 over Texans, 31-12, Titans cover. I picked the Titans correctly. I’m just happy to be nominated.

W/L - Giants -13.5 over Bengals, 26-23, Giants cover. I enjoy that I wrote a whole paragraph about over-thinking picks and then proceeded to overthink this pick. The Giants don’t cover large spreads… they just don’t. I know this and went against it anyway. Stupid. They go in to the bye undefeated. The bye has been poison to the Giants in the last few years. I’m glad to get it out of the way early.

W/W - Redskins -3 over Cardinals, 24-17, Redskins cover. It looks like my new rule held up mightily. It could also be a Kurt Warner on the road rule. Not sure.

L/W - Dolphins +13.5 over Patriots, 38-13, Dolphins +13.5. Funny thing — I was in Boston this weekend and decided to stick around on Sunday to catch football on my buddy’s 52″ hi-def. This meant I had to watch the Patriots instead of the Giants so I got to actually see the Dolphins play. As it turns out, they decided this week to run pretty much the exact offense I assumed they would run when I picked them as the outta nowhere team for the season. Short passing routes to take advantage of Pennington’s close accuracy and grinding out near yardage with Ronnie Brown and Rickey Williams. Pennington didn’t try to make one pass over 20 yards and the quick, young offensive tools tired out a much, much older defense. Funny thing happened on the way to “the Pats will be fine”. Without an accurate passer, their receivers aren’t much use. Since they’ve specifically built a passing offense at the expense of their running game, they don’t have a running game to really fall back on. Oh yeah, and their defense is still really old. The Dolphins used the Giants’ blueprint against the Patriots’ defense — grind out drives and tucker out the old dudes.

L/L - Bucs +3 over Bears, 27-24, Chicago covers. Griese passed 67 times in this game. The fact the Bears couldn’t stop this doesn’t reflect well on the Bears. The fact he didn’t doesn’t reflect well on the Bucs chances for continuing success.

W/W - Vikings -3 over Panthers, 20-10, Vikings cover. Somehow, I still haven’t seen one second of a Vikings or a Panthers game.

W/L - Seahawks -10.5 over Rams, 37-13, Rams +10.5. The Rams officially enter “no spread is too big” and “official pick against in knockout pools” all in the same week.

L/L - Niners -3 over Lions, 31-13, Lions outright. And thus ends the fabulous and awesome run of the Jesus-wagon. If the Lions can’t score, and give up 30 to the Niners, turn out the lights in Detroit early.

L/W - Broncos -4 over Saints, 34-32, Saints outright. The Broncos might be the most fortunate team in the league right now. After being handed a victory by the officials in San Diego, the Saints insisted on handing them a second one. This game saw New Orleans fail to score on 1st and 5, 2nd and 1, 3rd and 1, and 4th and 1 forgoing a field goal to bring the game within 3 at the end of the first half. Then, in one of the more bizarre decisions in football history, instead of QB sneaking from the one, Cutler drops eight yards deep in the end zone to hand the Saints a safety with 27 seconds left in the first half. Martin Grammatica misses two field goals (33, 47) that would have swung the game. Unreal. I’d also like to thank the Saints for taking Jeremy Shockey’s official month or two off away from the Giants this year.

L/L - Eagles over Saints, 15-6, Steelers. I guess my rule didn’t need a caveat. If the Eagles line was able to molest Roethlisberger this much, the Giants and Cowboys pass rush is going to kill him.

L/L - Jaguars +5.5 over Colts, 23-21, Colts cover. It appears that picking the Colts against any team with good running backs is back to being an awful, awful idea. I should also keep in mind two things here. First, the Jags and Colts always seem to play to 3 points or less regardless of how good or bad the other team is. Second, the Lucas Oil Dome with all their rules, policies, and family-friendliness has essentially sucked all the fun and advantage out of the Colts home field. The crowd for that entire game was dead and you could barely hear them. I look forward to this happening at Giants Stadium next year.

L/L - Ravens -2 over Browns, 28-10, Browns outright. I think we can declare the Browns and Derek Anderson a fluke. The Courageous Brady Quinn Era should be starting relatively soon. Week six or so.

W/W - Cowboys -3 over Packers, 27-16, Cowboys cover. God, how I hate this team.

W/L - Chargers -9.5 over Jets, 48-29, Jets +9.5. So, here’s a question. Is LDT actually hurt or is he just using his toe in case they lose? Also, how is this guy not getting skewered in San Diego media? The New York media would be all but questioning his manhood at this point.

5 points: Indy -5.5 over Jacksonville - L
4 points: Lions +3 over Niners - L
3 points: Redskins -3 over Cardinals - W
2 points: Browns +2 over Ravens - L
1 point: Chicago -3 over Tampa - L

And I guess we can declare that I don’t like funky new pool and am happy I decided to test it out for a year before taking the leap.

Standings
Straight Up: 9-7 (26-21)
Spread: 7-9 (22-24-1)
Point Pool: 3/15 (17/45 - .378)

Also deserves mentioning: all the spreads I thought were wacky I picked correctly. The ones I lost I generally thought were normal. Gambling rules.

L/L - Raiders +2.5 over Chiefs, 23-8, Chiefs cover: This just in - the Chiefs are epically bad. Ain’t no one that can kill a franchise like Herm.

L/L - Bengals -3 over Titans, 24-7, Bengals cover: Have we reached the point where we can officially call the AFC powerhouses “dead”? I strenuously argued this pick with Hulse, convinced the Titans would be screwed playing through media scrutiny and the QB Trinity Of Suck. He argued that the Bengals are exactly the type of team that Tennessee destroys and they were playing without major offensive weapons. I lose.

W/W - Packers -1 over Lions, 48-25, Packers cover: Didn’t understand this spread when I saw it and it, unsurprisingly, was blown out. All that stuff I said about how Aaron Rodgers kinda sucks? I lied. I’m on board now.

L/L - Redskins -1 over Saints, 29-24, Saints outright. As it turns out, betting against the NFC East this year is done at your own peril. The NFC East will have the remarkable ability to make each other look foolish and will probably crush the rest of the NFC.

W/L - Colts -3.5 over Vikings, 18-15, Colts cover. Gods above I hate half-point lines. To note: The Colts didn’t play much at all with the 1st string squad over pre-season. Apparently, it takes about 8-12 quarters to sync up. The Colts will have a favorable line next week.

W/T - Panthers -3 over Bears, 20-17, Panthers cover: So, apparently the Panther’s alternating year rule still exists, which means pencil them in for 10 wins this year.

W/W - Giants -8 over Rams, 41-13, Giants cover: As I’ve mentioned in other places, the Giants’ schedule through the first six weeks is kind of easy. This made me nervous as someone who has followed the team for years. Blowing out the Rams, while not a big deal on the surface, kind of is a big deal for a team that tends to struggle to get by bad teams and elevating their game for good teams. With their upcoming schedule (Cincy, Bye, Seattle, @Cleveland, San Francisco) they can keep playing the “no one believes in us” card when they hit the tough part of their schedule (@Pittsburgh, Dallas, @Philly) as the “product of their schedule” stories start coming out. I, for one, look forward to this.

L/W - Bills +6 over Jags, 20-16, Bills +6. Whatever I thought about the Jags was apparently rendered moot when their runningback got arrested.

W/L - Bucs -9 over Falcons, 24-9, Falcons +9. The Falcons are going to be a really annoying team this year, likely joining the club with the Titans for “team I hate picking and lose every week.”

L/W - Niners +9.5 over Seahawks, 33-30, Niners +9.5: As it turns out, the Seahawks aren’t even good enough to WIN, much less cover the spread. The Seahawks have said their receivers are out until after the bye week. Expect spreads on them to come way down.

W/L - Cardinals -7.5 over Dolphins, 31-10, Dolphins +7.5: I’m still not taking the Cardinals with more than a touchdown, but the Dolphins are looking to frustrate me for another entire year by saying “they gotta win one here eventually, right?

W/W - Patriots +3 over Jets, 19-10, Patriots outright: If the Patriots can beat the Jets on the road, I’m pretty sure they’re still going to make the playoffs. It’s shaping up such that the AFC East is going to be as interesting as the NFC East.

PPD - Ravens/Texans - Best wishes to all those affected by Ike.

L/L - Broncos +3 over Chargers, 39-38, Chargers cover: Could have been a win… it’s not. Couldn’t have happened to a nicer group of guys. In other news, the Bradyless Ms. L Superstars survived their first week vs. Tomlinson on the backs of Eli Manning and Santana Moss. Who knew?

W/L - Steelers -5.5 over Browns, 10-6, Steelers cover: I really wish I could see even a clip of a Steelers game so I had some concept of how they’re playing.

W/W - Cowboys -7 over Eagles, 41-37, Eagles +7: Could someone explain to me how Donovan McNabb can manage to flub not one, but two handoffs in crunch-time? Could that same person also explain to me why on three consecutive downs under two minutes, McNabb scampered around the backfield and ran toward the sideline and, rather than running toward the 10 open yards of field between him and the sideline, instead chose to take sacks? Someone could. His name is Rush Limbaugh.

5 point: Saints +1 over Redskins - L
4 point: Packers -1 over Lions - W
3 point: Colts -3.5 over Vikings - L
2 point: Chargers -3 over Broncos - L
1 point: Dolphins +7.5 over Chargers - L

Yikes.

Standings:

Straight Up: 9-6 (17-14)
Spread: 6-8-1 (!) (15-15-1)
Point Pool: 4/15 (14/30 - .467)

Sunday
Oakland Raiders +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs: This seems like the most gimme spread on Earth. There’s nothing going right in the Raiders organization. The coach hates the owner, the owner hates the coach, they overpaid for a pretty bad starting QB, and they’re playing IN KC. I’ll give the Raiders a few wins this year, but they’re probably going to be at home. Chiefs cover

Tennessee Titans +3 at Cincinnati Bengals: The Titans responded to Vince Young’s ongoing mental problems by signing Chris Simms and creating the Holy Trinity of Suck in Crazy Vince/Chris Simms/Kerry Collins. One of two things happens this week: Crazy Vince continues his meltdown on the road and gets blown out huge or Crazy Vince remembers he’s Vince f’n Young and destroys the Bengals and reconquers Tennessee. As someone who’s dealt with clinically depressed friends… it takes a couple weeks for those meds to kick in. Bengals cover.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Detroit Lions: This is another strange spread. The Packers just decisively beat the Vikings… who are unquestionably better than the Lions. The Lions just lost to the Falcons of all people. Aaron Rodgers seemed like he pretty much answered the “can I slide in to the starter role and not look awful” question last week. I think this is a gimme. Packers cover.

New Orleans Saints +1 at Washington Redskins: Skins: Still overrated. Saints: Somehow still underrated. The Giants backed rushed for 150 yards last week and neither of them are as good as Reggie Bush. Saints outright.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Minnesota Vikings: This is another Bizzaro world spread. Slow down, everyone. The Colts lost last week. Let’s not call the whole thing off yet. Colts cover.

Chicago Bears +3 at Carolina Panthers: It’s the upset special. Both of these teams overcame 9 point spreads to knockoff AFC heavyweights last week. That changes this game significantly. Both of these teams are suddenly playing for an unlikely 2-0 start to take in to their first divisional match-ups next week. I really have no idea. I’ll go with the home team. Panthers cover.

New York Giants -8 at St. Louis Rams: I hate when the Giants are playing against huge spreads because they’re a pain in the balls to pick. They retain their tendency to play down to competition. However, I’m presuming Eli’s going to take advantage of his fresh opportunity to captain Team Ms. L to the promise land of the Mysterious Accounting Giant Bowl. Also: the Rams are frickin terrible. Also: just throwin this out there. The Giants don’t have a particularly hard game until Week 8 vs. the Steelers. At what week will The Worldwide Leader start calling the Giants “a product of their schedule” while ignoring the fact the Cowboys have the same schedule? I call week 6. Giants cover.

Buffalo Bills +6 at Jacksonville Jaguars: I’m starting to feel stupid that I didn’t go with my original gut instinct of the Bills being the team out of nowhere. I mean, the Bills are at least as good as the Titans, right? The six-point spread wouldn’t be enough to get me to take the Bills if they didn’t look SO good last week. The Bills at least are going to keep this close. Bills +6.

Atlanta Falcons +9 at Tampa Bay Bucs: I’m picking way more “X to cover” spreads than I’m comfortable with this week. I usually hate doing that unless I can make a solid argument that the team can win. That said, I’m kind of nervous to think about the “2-0 Atlanta Falcons” and “rookie quarterback on the road.” Then again, it’s Tampa… not Philly. Falcons +9.

San Francisco 49ers +9.5 at Seattle Seahawks: Perennial disappointment Alex Smith continues to disappoint by going on IR for the rest of this year. The question here is: will the power of the CheatinDome be enough to counteract a crippled number of starters in a terrible division? I say that the Seahawks are not nearly good enough at this point to rate a 10 point spread. Niners +9.5.

Miami Dolphins +7.5 at Arizona Cardinals: I unfortunately didn’t see enough of the Jets/Miami game to see what kind of offense Miami was running and, shock and surprise, NFL.com’s game recaps kind of suck just saying “short” and “deep” instead of using those handy lines on the field. It looks like they actually did design the offense around Pennington’s strengths. Although, I was happy to see that Pennington’s ability to throw heart-breaking interceptions in the fourth quarter followed him to a new state. Quick note to Vegas: I’m never taking the Cardinals to win by more than a touchdown. Ever. Dolphins +7.5.

New England Patriots +3(!) at New York Jets: I was trying to remember the last time the Patriots were underdogs. I came up with the Super Bowl vs. the Rams. I am having a hard time turning down the Patriots and points even though I know I should. I mean, Jet fans have to have their souls crushed at least once this year, right? It’s just karma for being happy about the Brady injury. If there’s one absolute about the Jets is they crush your soul just as you get on board. Also, if you’re Bill Belicheck — who goes between reviled and overrated depending on who you’re talking to — isn’t this your chance to erase “overrated” from your resume? I have to do it even though I’ll hate myself in the morning. Patriots outright.

Baltimore Ravens +4 at Houston Texans: I never thought the Ravens would win last week. I figured the Texans would snap back a bit this year. I wouldn’t bet real money on this game in any universe because I have no idea what’s going to happen. Going with the home team. Texans cover.

San Diego Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos: Much like the Indy game… this spread would be a lot different if the Chargers won last week and Broncos didn’t destroy the Raiders. Let’s slow down here, folks. The Broncos destroyed the NFL’s version of the Knicks. The Chargers got surprised, but let’s not call the team out of it after getting shocked by an OK team. They’ll be ready to work this week. On the other hand, if the Broncos win this game, we’ll have to start taking them a little more seriously. Chargers cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 at Cleveland Browns: I didn’t buy the Browns last year at home and got burned for it. I can’t pick them this year either. Steelers cover.

Monday
Philadelphia Eagles +7 at Dallas Cowboys: The Eagles are going to continue to be hugely overrated because they crushed the Rams last week. No one will mention that they crushed, you know, the Rams. Giving the Eagles credit where it’s due, though, they looked looser and easier then they did at any point last year. I’m not a huge fan taking NFC East games over 3 points and I think the Cowboys are getting a few extra because of their buzz. Eagles +7.

5 point: Saints +1 over Redskins
4 point: Packers -1 over Lions
3 point: Colts -3.5 over Vikings
2 point: Chargers -3 over Broncos
1 point: Dolphins +7.5 over Chargers

I’m very glad I didn’t decide to enter a knockout pool this year. This week was one of the worst ever. One of two things would have happened — I either won have won in the first week by picking the Giants, or I would have gone the “safer” route and picked the Colts.

I hate yearly pools because the first week is entirely a crap shoot. My hope every year is to go .500 in week one and don’t dig myself a 10 game hole against Lois from the office who picks the pretty logos. I managed to do that this year in the straight up pool and actually managed to go 1-game over in spread pool — where of course someone managed to pick 13/16 correct even though this week featured six upsets.

W/W - Giants -3.5 over Redskins 16-7, Giants cover: This game went pretty much exactly according to plan. The Giants rode the banner raising ceremony out to an early lead and the defense held it. I’m selling myself that I’m OK with the Giants moving back to classic Giants, super-boring football. I look forward to being hated as much as the Spurs.

L/L - Ravens +1 over Bengals, 17-10, Bengals outright: I stick by my never pick a new coach and quarterback in week one theory, but I might have to re-examine it if they’re home.

L/L - Jets -3 over Dolphins, 20-14, Dolphins outright. Favre threw up two of his interception-ready balls but the Dolphins defense couldn’t come up with them. The Jets are going to be horrifically over-rated going in to next week (edit: the Jets went from 10 point dogs to 2 point faves against the Patriots at Giants Stadium this week. One point for me) and if they beat the Patriots there is amazingly going to be a Jets’ tax on spreads for a few weeks.

W/L - Patriots -16.5 over Chiefs, 17-10, Patriots cover: I’m one of the very few people in the world who don’t hate the Patriots. My old roommate was a Pats fan and I watched him suffer for years in the 1990s with a terrible team, so I couldn’t get angry at the Pats for finally getting good because he was happy about it. As such, I’m probably one of the few non-Patriot fans unhappy to see the balance of power in the AFC shift a bit. In fact, I don’t even understand the Patriots hate… they’re pushovers. As such, this is a wrath of God loss. There’s no bit of pre-game logic that could have predicted the end so whatever.

W/W - Steelers -6.5 over Texans, 38-17, Steelers cover: I didn’t see a second of this game, but no surprise.

L/L - Titans +3 over Jaguars, 17-10, Jags cover: The Titans scare and confuse me. There is no reason for them to be winning games and apparently their quarterback is clinically depressed and moderately insane.

L/L - Falcons +3 over Lions, 34-21, Lions cover. I’d probably pick with this same logic if you gave me this game 1,000 times.

W/W - Bills +1 over Seahawks, 34-10, Bills outright. The Seahawks have 4 injured receivers, a starting QB with a bulging disc, a fixed Super Bowl loss, a basketball team heading to Oklahoma City, and a historically underperforming baseball team. They’re getting ready to take over Philly as most depressed sports town.

W/W - Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 24-20, Saints cover. I’m probably not going to write a preview for every division, but my theory for the Reggie Bush thing is thus: he’s not as bad as he was last year and one of the underrated aspects of Jeremy Shockey’s game is run-blocking. They media focused so much on Shockey complaining about his touches that they ignored the reason WHY he doesn’t get touches. He’s a huge animal that opens up running lanes and knocks down defenders. The first week of my predicted Reggie Bush resurgence saved Team Ms. L from the Tom Brady injury.

L/L - Eagles -7 over Rams, 38-3, Rams +7. I blame myself for forgetting the Rams are terrible.

W/W - Cowboys -4 over Browns, 28-10, Cowboys cover: I’m not going to rush to any judgments on Cleveland’s season because they lost to one of the best teams in the NFC.

L/W - Panthers +9 over Chargers, 26-24, Panthers +9: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Nothing makes me happier than my fourth favorite team in the league getting upset at home. I expect LDT to be out with a classy injury by week 3.

W/W - Cards -3 over Niners, 23-13, Cards cover: Not reading too much in to this one either… the Niners are still terrible.

L/W - Bears +9 over Colts, 29-13, Bears +9: Did the Colts defense go and get old when I wasn’t paying attention or did the league just finally figure out that they play prevent for the entire game?

L/L - Packers -3 over Vikings, 24-19, Vikings outright: I guess the Packers organization knew something we didn’t?

W/W - Broncos -3 over Raiders, 41-14, Broncos cover: Surprisingly, the Raiders “let them tire themselves out” defensive scheme didn’t work out.

W - 5 point game: Giants -3.5 over Redskins
L - 4 point game: Vikings +3 over Packers
W - 3 point game: Cowboys -4 over Browns
W - 2 point game: Bills +1 over Seahawks
L - 1 point game: Bengals -1 over Ravens

Straight Up: 8-8
Against The Spread: 9-7
Weird Point Pool: 10/15.

Brady possibly out for the season. One of two things happens now:

1) The people who stomp their feet and angrily argue that Brady’s an over-rated system quarterback who fell in to the perfect offense can have their assertions confirmed when the Patriots still go 14-2 after dropping another system quarterback in his place.

2) People discover that, without Brady, the Patriots are the Panthers.

Either way, my first round pick in my money league is gone and I’m out $75.

Paging Daunte Culpepper. Will Daunte Culpepper please pick up the white courtesy phone?

My God, I’ve been slacking this year. The season stalked up on me this year. Out of nowhere it starts in two days. I haven’t written anything about it…. haven’t really even thought about it. I guess I’ve been too busy riding on the World Champion High. I’ll have to throw together something about the Giants shortly and try to get the annual over/under column together. I think I’m going to roll with a new bit of a feature this year to go along with this new gimmicky work pool I’m in. The idea is thus: Pick five games each week with the spread. You will assign a point value 1 - 5 depending on your confidence in the pick. Should you win the game, you gain the points you assigned to that game.

I also humbly put my picks up against the Aaron/Joe competition if they’ll have me.

Thursday
Washington Redskins +3.5 at New York Giants: I was planning on giving the Giants their standard 4-2 in the division this season — but I don’t think the Eagles or Redskins are really good enough to beat them. Even with Osi sidelined for the season, I’m pretty sure the Giants pass rush is good enough to get through and catch Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis is like 75 in runningback years. Add to that the whole banner raising ceremony before the game and everything. I think the Giants have this game on lockdown. Giants cover.

Sunday
Cincinnati Bengals -1 at Baltimore Ravens: New Coach + New Quarterback = no way I’m picking them in week one. Bengals outright.

New York Jets -3 at Miami Dolphins: This game is intriguing for a lot of different reasons. Most notably, obviously, is the fact that the first Jets game of the season will be against Chad Pennington. Secondly, I’ve made the argument for a lot of years that, if someone in the Jets organization had half-a-brain, they’d design an offense around Pennington’s towel-arm instead of in-spite of it. Parcells has watched Pennington from afar for quite some time now. I’d imagine he has, at least, mentioned to his offensive coordinator that Pennington is at his best under 30 years and to do their best not to tax that unless they have to. This is a really, really hard game to pick, but I don’t think the Dophins are getting enough credit… yet. Dolphins outright.

Kansas City Chiefs +16.5 at New England Patriots: I don’t really believe in the whole stupid Brady injury thing. I think it’s just Billy being Billy. That said, a 16.5 point blowout in the first week of the season is a bold claim. They blew the doors off the Jets by 24 the first week of last year. If it was anyone other than the Patriots, I’d be hesitant to make this pick, but the Patriots are so drastically better than the Chiefs AND I see no reason that they’re not going to make a statement at home the first week of the season. Patriots cover.

Houston Texans +6.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers: I’m not buying the Texans as anything more than a flash in the pan until they give me reason to. Steelers cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Tennessee Titans: I’m not hopping on the Vince Young bandwagon until I have some reason to. At this point, the Jags are still the quietest 10-win team that didn’t win the Super Bowl. Jags cover.

Detroit Lions -3 at Atlanta Falcons: Hop back on the Jesuswagon against a team that still has to prove they’re not a mess? AND only three points? Sold. Lions cover.

Seattle Seahawks -1 at Buffalo Bills: I think the Seahawks window has closed… I’m also pretty close to thinking the Bills are going to be the surprise team this year. I’ll get into this later. Bills outright.

Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 at New Orleans Saints: Reggie Bush is going to have a renaissance season this year for reasons I’ll get in to when I write the preview. The Jeff Garcia bandwagon did me solid last year, but it’s not time to hop on it yet. Saints cover.

St. Louis Rams +7 at Philadelphia Eagles: The perpetual over-rating of the Eagles goes on for another year. The Eagles have been rolling the dice with essentially the same team for three years now. Last year the Giants and Cowboys got better and the Eagles finished 8-8. I see no reason this doesn’t happen again. The Eagles aren’t blowing anyone out, but I have very little faith in the Rams. Rams +7.

Cowboys -4 at Browns: Doesn’t it seem like the Cowboys should be like $50 million over the cap? I’m not buying what the Browns are selling yet… especially not against a team that should be an NFC playoff team. I desperately want the Cowboys to fall apart this year… but I desperately want that every year. Cowboys cover.

Carolina Panthers +9 at Chargers: I’m a bit hesitant to pick the Chargers with big points the first week of the season because I don’t really know how I feel about the team. I don’t know how Philip Rivers’ ACL is going to hold up over a 60-minute game and I don’t know how much whining LDT will do over a 60 minute game. I can’t give away that many points unless I’m sure and sleep at night. Panthers +9.

Arizona Cardinals -3 at San Francisco 49ers: There may not be a professional sports division I know less about than the NFC West. The little I do know is that a few too many people are picking the Niners (again) as the “team outta nowhere” which officially makes them NOT the “team outta nowhere.” On the other hand, the Cards have been dealing with a QB controversy through all of their camp. The weird Leinart/Warner platoon worked last year. I’ll give it a whirl for at least one week. Cards cover.

Chicago Bears +9 at Indianapolis Colts: The window on the Colts has to be closing here pretty soon, I think. There are only so many seasons in a row that you can win 13 or 14 games, right? Manning is possibly hurt and the Bears defense should keep this close-ish. The Bears are getting a Colts-tax of about 3 points. Bears +9.

Monday
Vikings +3 at Packers: Occasionally, I do enjoy point spreads. Mostly, I enjoy them in instances where they exist on silly things like “mystique.” The Packers are going to be terrible this year. Aaron Rogers is not good and no amount of Lambeau Mystique is going to carry the Packers to the top of their division this year. I’ll take the Vikings and a few extra points just to be sure. Vikings outright.

Denver Broncos -3 at Oakland Raiders: Sorry Cam, not picking your boys until the give me a reason to. Broncos cover.

5 point game: Giants -3.5 over Redskins
4 point game: Vikings +3 over Packers
3 point game: Cowboys -4 over Browns
2 point game: Bills +1 over Seahawks
1 point game: Bengals -1 over Browns

Seriously.

I’m….. ugh.

One of my buddies runs a keeper league that keeps 4 players per team. It is very hard to improve your team in this league. You have to do some research and grab rookies and guys ready to make The Leap. It also drafts insanely early — we draft before training camp even opens. Fortunately, this league is not for money. This league is usually the first thing to remind me that it’s almost football season. The second thing is the annual over-rating by ESPN of the Philadelphia Eagles. As a complete tangent… the cool thing about this blog is being able to go back and read stuff from last year. I’d like to feature the following quotes:

Giants vs. Bucs: At the end of the day, Garcia’s damn near 40 and the Giants are going to be pressing him on every down. The Bucs have been talking a whole lot this week… and how can you possibly dismiss Eli wanting to throw 1,000 yards on the mug of Ronde Barber? I mean… come on… he can destroy a guy with the exact same DNA….

Giants vs. Cowboys: people seem to forget that Tony Romo isn’t really an all-time quarterback. He’s a decent quarterback who’s had the benefit of having a super-human receiver downfield who manages to pull off at least two “how the frick is he THAT wide open” plays each game. If TO is semi-human, the Giants pass-rush can get through the Cowboys line, and Eli Manning can play like he played last week, the Giants win this game by 3. Final score: 21-17, Wade Phillips’s sanity and dignity.

Giants vs. Packers: And, lest we forget, we are still talking about Brett Favre who, as good as he is, has a terrible tendency to throw horrible passes off his back foot into triple coverage when he’s trying to force plays. [...] The weather is not going to affect the Giants any more or less than it’s going to affect the Packers. The only guy whose played a bitter cold game at Lambeau Field is Brett Favre. The rest of them played a cold snow game last week… 31F and snowy is not remotely the same as bitter, -20F Wind Chill. The Giants, right now, have a better platoon of running backs than the Packers. That’s huge in a game like this. The Giants pass rush, if it gets to Favre, is going to throw him off his rhythm. When he’s off his rhythm, he makes desperate plays.

Giants vs. Patriots: There’s a reason that the Patriots have struggled in close games. Their front is old. That’s their weak spot. If Eli continues to make good decisions and doesn’t force plays, the Giants can wear this Patriot defense out. Can you think of anything more damaging to the Patriots if the Giants win the toss and grind out a huge, long, 80-yard-drive and start battering Junior Seau and Tedy Bruschi? And also: how closely do you think the referees are going to be watching the Patriots for personal fouls in this game? Do you think Vrabel’s going to get away with any leg-whips this time around? I don’t. [...] On the other side of the ball, the Giants defense is as good, if not better, than what the Chargers trotted out there a couple weeks back. The Giants led the league in sacks. In the last game of the season they fell apart in the fourth quarter. If they can stop themselves from doing that, they win. Hands down.

Goddam, I’m good.

It’s no different thus far in 2008. A few days before training camp opens and most of the hype in the division is around the Cowboys and Eagles. Can anyone tell me how the Eagles, year after year, can continue to not improve their team and yet be the gimme 2nd place team in the NFC East behind the beloved, ain’t-won-a-playoff-game-in-a-decade Cowboys? This is the FOURTH year that I’ve been forced to mention that Donovan McNabb’s sell-by date was four years ago. He’s still got no receivers and not much of an offense. The Eagles were not good last year and there’s no reason to think they’ll be any good this year.

As for the media darlings… could you have a more explosive situation than TO, Pacman, and Tank Johnson all in one locker room? This has drama written all over and I pray for three consecutive losses to see if the locker room explodes.

I’m not saying the Cowboys are going to be terrible, I’m not even saying they aren’t the odds on favorite to win the East this year. But could the defending world champions get a little more respect than being listed behind an Eagles team that finished (as I predicted) dead-last in the division last year? I’m somewhat surprised the Redskins and their ability to continually bring in new players and totally underperform aren’t ranked third.

And, to make the point, shows are arguing that the Giants have never made the playoffs in a season which followed a Super Bowl appearance. Two of those appearances were pre-salary cap and the third appearance was a Giants’ team that inexplicably made a run, was subsequently crushed in the Super Bowl, and got mostly disassembled the following year. This year, the Giants are fielding almost exactly the same team as last season. Nothing is a given in the NFL, granted, but you’d think they could get a bit of respect.

Jason Taylor is not going to help the Redskins and the Eagles are still moderately terrible. It’s the Giants wild-card to lose again. But… that’s fine. Let them travel under the radar all season again. I’m fine with that.

It worked out before.