NFL Picks 2009 – Week 14
Thursday
W/W – Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Cleveland Browns: I’m definitely taking the points. Short week on the road down their best receiver, their best defensive player, and their quarterback still in that four-week window of recently concussed. The only question I have is whether or not the Browns have enough ability to actually knock the Steelers off an end their season. I…. I just can’t do it. Browns +10
Sunday
Denver Broncos +7.5 at Indianapolis Colts: One more week before the Colts shut it down for the season and let the Patriots claim the closest thing to an undefeated season this decade. Weirdly, I’ve always enjoyed watching Patriots games more than Colts games, but I find myself oddly pulling for the Colts to go 19-0 this year and really create a solid counterargument to handing the Patriots the team of the 00s. Colts cover
Cincinnati Bengals +8 at Minnesota Vikings: Not a chance in hell I don’t take 8 points coming from the Bengals, in a dome, with a chance to put the division away in the same week the Steelers put up the white flag to really cherry-top their season. I mean, you have seen what good offenses do to the Vikings, right? I file this under the same kind of pick as last week. Bengals outright
New York Jets -3.5 at Tampa Bay Bucs: The only thing that would make this game a more foregone conclusion is if the Bucs wear their gay pirate outfits. I’m not quite buying the whole “The Jets Have Turned The Corner” line of bull, but I do think it’s right in the Jets’ tortured existence to have Kellen Clemens throw for 5 touchdowns and create a quarterback controversy. Jets cover
Buffalo Bills +1 at Kansas City Chiefs: In this kind of game with two pretty much dead teams, I have to take the home field where they just got embarrassed in front of their home crowd. Let’s just say I don’t really think the Bills are going to travel that well. Chiefs cover
Green Bay Packers -3 at Chicago Bears: You couldn’t pay me to pick the Bears this week. Division game, Wild Card at stake, and a terrible Bears defense that’s getting grinded every which way possible? Packers cover
New Orleans Saints -9.5 at Atlanta Falcons: I can pretty much copy and paste what I said last week. The Falcons are too beat up to score. The only thing that might mitigate this whuppin’ is if the Saints start sitting people halfway through the game. And, depending on how many passing records Drew Brees is approaching, that might not happen. Saints cover
Detroit Lions +12.5 at Baltimore Ravens: I can’t expect the Ravens to play an equally pitiful game in front of their home fans. Really, Detroit, could you sit your rookie quarterback before someone removes his rotator cuff and screws your franchise for another five years? I’m begging for an entertaining game by 2015. Ravens cover
Miami Dolphins +2 at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags looked good against the Texans last week. Unfortunately, you can not use what teams do to the Texans in any sort of logic exercise. Besides the point, the Dolphins have playoff daylight, tiebreaks a-plenty, and likely enough spunk to beat a bad team in what will probably almost be a home game. Dolphins outright
Carolina Panthers +13 at New England Patriots: I’m not convinced New England is still the same New England that one can always pencil in to put up 50 on a bad team like the Patriots of… um… two months ago. Also, am I the only one who half-believes that all this “unrest” from the Patriot locker-room is Belichick playing a game with all our minds? Must win for the Patriots to right the season and make a final push for the playoffs. Patriots cover
Seattle Seahawks +6 at Houston Texans: I hate them so much. Whatever. Seahawks +6
St. Louis Rams +13 at Tennessee Titans: Let’s see if Vince Young responds to the first derailment of his bandwagon. I don’t know… he looked “right” for the first time since college over the last few weeks. The Titan defense has been monstrous against bad teams and I don’t see any reason that should change here. Titans cover
Washington Redskins (Pick) at Oakland Raiders: Since it’s physically impossible for both teams to give a game away in the fourth quarter. Raiders
San Diego Chargers +3 at Dallas Cowboys: Weird sub-plot here… each team’s coach has the ability to choke hard in a big game… and either team’s coach will leave you with at least one moment of “I can’t believed I picked that guy in December to win a big game.” But, honestly, I have to go with history again. The Cowboys just don’t win these games and can you really expect Tony Romo to have two consecutive career days? Until the Cowboys defense shows up for a big game, I simply can’t pick them. Chargers outright
Philadelphia Eagles +1 at New York Giants: Ugh. I can’t expect the Eagles to fold up in December like I can the Cowboys (they wait until after New Year’s to do that). I’m doing my best to dial back any excitement I’m feeling over last week. Objectively, though, the Giants could not stop third downs last week. Even if I allow that the Eagles running game is on life-support, the fact the Cowboys were converting 3rd and 10s like the Giants were standing still last week really makes me doubt their ability to hold down the Eagles’ speedy receivers. My only hope is a bitter, bitter cold December day in the Meadowlands and Brandon Jacobs turning it on like it was 2007. Otherwise, it’s going to be a long, cold night. Giants cover
Monday
Arizona Cardinals -1.5 at San Francisco 49ers: I have a tough time seeing only a 1.5 point spread this week. I feel like the Cardinals are going to score at will here with many, many shots of Stepfordized Brenda Warner. Cardinals cover
Spreads
1) Dolphins +2 over JAGUARS
2) Bengals +8 over VIKINGS
3) Jets -3.5 over BUCS
Related posts:
Your “spread” picks are a little off from Simmons’ Friday spreads, so I took the liberty of changing them to reflect what’s in his Friday column.
Aaron C.
13 Dec 09 at 1:03 pm