NFL Picks 2009: Week 13
Thursday
W/W – New York Jets -2.5 at Buffalo Bills (Neutral Field, Rogers Centre – Toronto, Canada): Nothing says smart like taking away the Bills’ biggest advantage in months when it matters. For the second straight season, they’re coming off a decent week and, instead of riding that out in one of the few remaining home fields with a big advantage, they surrender it to the Jets. And, on top of all that, they surrender the enormous advantage that is playing at home on Thursday. This Rogers Centre thing is maybe the stupidest thing anyone’s ever done. Until they add new teams in London and increase the league to 40 teams. Jets cover
Sunday
Denver Broncos -4 at Kansas City Chiefs: The Broncos don’t win at Arrowhead in December. They just don’t. We’ll call Arrowhead one of, what, four remaining stadiums with a real homefield advantage? Soon to be three? Taking the points, but I wouldn’t be surprised with an outright win. Chiefs +4
Oakland Raiders +9.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers: I would expect the Steelers to buckle down here and, if the weather over the Northeast right now is any indication, it’s going to be a long afternoon for any warm weather teams in cold weather cities tomorrow. Steelers cover
Houston Texans (Pick) at Jacksonville Jaguars: This is how unpredictable the Texans are… they should be infinitely better than the Texans. They’re playing in a stadium that might be half full in front of an apathetic city that will probably be blacked out… and they’re a pick’em. Texans
Tennessee Titans +7.5 at Indianapolis Colts: In an interesting twist, if the Colts beat the Titans this week and Denver next week, is it possible that their second stringers could go undefeated against the Jags, Jets, and Bills? It’s somewhat rare that the two hottest teams over a month meet up for a “who goes cold first” game. I was torn on who to take in this game until I looked at who the Titans have been “hot” against. Their last three wins have been Buffalo, Houston, and Warnerless Arizona. The Colts have beaten Houston, Baltimore, and New England. Titans +7.5
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 at Atlanta Falcons: No Matt Ryan and no Michael Turner? Please. Eagles cover
Detroit Lions -13 at Cincinnati Bengals: It’s saddening to watch a guy shorten his career for meaningless games in a lost season. It’s equally sad that the Lions are letting him do it. But, then again, they ARE the Lions. Bengals cover
New Orleans Saints -8.5 at Washington Redskins: I can’t see any world in which the Saints don’t blow the doors off the Redskins to clinch their division. Saints cover
Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5 at Carolina Panthers: Jake Delhomme’s thrown something like 10 touchdowns and 487 interceptions this season and it took John Fox until week 13 to pull the trigger on benching him. And they’re going to win by a touchdown? Doubt it. Bucs +6.5
St. Louis Rams +9 at Chicago Bears: This seems like a perfect game for Jay Cutler to throw 4 touchdowns on a bad defense and fool everyone in to thinking he’s a good quarterback. Bears cover
New England Patriots -6.5 at Miami Dolphins: Last week, Miami got blown out in their yearly horror show stadium. Now, they host New England in their horror show stadium. New England has spent the last few weeks forcefully reminding us that the old rules no longer apply to the Patriots. They don’t knock down upstart teams, they don’t always make the best decisions, and they’re not quite as scary as they used to be. I’m pretty sure the 2nd half of this game is New England’s old defense getting bowled over by a younger, stronger offense and preventing the Patriots offense from scoring. Dolphins outright
San Diego Chargers -12.5 at Cleveland Browns: See previous statement on weather in the Northeast. Browns +12.5
San Francisco 49ers +1 at Seattle Seahawks: NFC West rule! Niners outright
Dallas Cowboys +1 at New York Giants: I like to think that Giants fans are more realistic about life than Jets fans. I like to think that we can objectively look at this season, know where are shortcomings are, and know whether or not we have a chance. Last season, I wrote that the Giants were going to give Dallas an epic beating because Dallas spent the entire offseason talking about how bad the Giants were in the Super Bowl season. The Giants won 35-14. Now, the Cowboys come to Giants Stadium following the Giants spoiling of Dallas’s new stadium party and a bitter loss which saw Justin Tuck injured due to Flozell Adams’s blatant tripping, Brandon Jacobs’s dance on the midfield star after the win, and autographgate with a hankerin for revenge. The only saving grace — the Cowboys haven’t stepped up for a big game in over a decade. Of course… the Giants haven’t stepped up for one this year. But, I’m going with history. Giants cover
Minnesota Vikings -6.5 at Arizona Cardinals: I was going to write some kind of bet-hedging thing where I said different things about Warner vs. Leinert starting… but then it occurred to me that I don’t think a Warner-led Cardinals can beat the Vikings either. Vikings cover
Monday
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at Green Bay Packers: The Ravens just beat the Steelers, and now they’re on Monday Night against a quarterback who likes to hold the ball too long behind a line that isn’t the best at defending them? And they’re GETTING points? Ravens outright
Spreads
1) Ravens +3 over PACKERS
2) Saints -9.5 over REDSKINS
3) Eagles -5.5 over FALCONS