NFL Picks 2009: Week 12
Thursday
Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions: Just when I thought the Lions game on Thanksgiving might be fun to watch with Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson — Daunte Culpepper outta nowhere. Is the NFL happy with their 1pm Thanksgiving game being a disaster every year? I guess they must be. Packers cover
Oakland Raiders -14 at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys have a habit of crushing bad teams on Thanksgiving before going in to their NFL-sanctioned, late-season bye week. While I don’t think the Cowboys are great, I think that 14 points is way too high. Raiders +14
New York Giants -6 at Denver Broncos: You know what makes me happy? Drinking a bunch of Winter Lager at my parents’ house, stuffing myself with my mom’s random collection of deviled eggs, pepperoni bread, and boneless wings to warm up — followed by her collection of turkey breast, stuffing, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes, corn, two pies, and citrus and Cool Whip pudding combined with my dad’s recent addition of barbecue-grilled turkey legs, crashing on the couch to fight off a food coma, followed by driving to a goddam bar with the NFL Package to watch the Giants game while attempting to stay awake and choke down more beer that I absolutely won’t want. Thanks, NFL! Your fan-friendly policy of disallowing people in New York to see the Giants on Thanksgiving remains excellent! Soapbox aside, I don’t love that the Giants played a game in New York three days ago… but I do love that it’s against Chris Simms and a reeling team. Considering how toasted the Giants defense was in the fourth quarter of the New York game, I don’t love their chances at holding a big lead on three days rest where there’s less air. Broncos +6
Sunday
Indianapolis Colts -3 at Houston Texans: The Colts have played two of the best teams in the AFC to close games. Clearly that means the Texans will stick right with them. Colts cover
Cleveland Browns +14 at Cincinnati Bengals: I really hate weeks like these that are just laden with points. They’re so ridiculous to pick. Last week was a hiccup, I think. Home against the Brown is not the same as on the road vs. a rival. Bengals cover
Chicago Bears +11 at Minnesota Vikings: I guess, after last week, that I now believe the Vikings are just going to cover all spreads. Like, what can a defense do against them at this point? If they don’t stack the box, Peterson runs for a billion yards. If they do stack the box and make Favre beat them, he picks them apart because he doesn’t have to “make a play.” In a dome? eesh. Vikings cover
Washington Redskins +10 at Philadelphia Eagles: *Checks reasoning for last week* *Sees loss* Redskins +10
Miami Dolphins -3 at Buffalo Bills: This is one of those “X always plays Y tough” games. But, with the spread only at three, I kinda have to just go with who I think is better — especially considering I don’t think the Bills have anyone on the field who can stop Rickey Williams. Dolphins cover
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans: I’m just happy I get to finally shine up and dust off “All Vince Young does is win football games.” Titans
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 at St. Louis Rams: Seems like the Seahawks are just playing out the season at this point. The Rams are dealing with Steve Spagnuolo’s insane movements on the sidelines. Big difference here — Spags’s defense vs. a horrible offensive line. Rams outright
Tampa Bay Bucs +11.5 at Atlanta Falcons: Not a shot the Falcons don’t grab back the game they lost on the Giants. Decisively. Falcons cover
Carolina Panthers +3 at New York Jets: Two bad teams. I’ll take the home team. Jets cover
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at San Francisco 49ers: I find this confusing. I see no earthly way that the Niners aren’t either getting 3 or are a straight up pick with the Jaguars. Makes no sense to me… and the NFC West rule with the Niners. Jaguars outright
Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 at San Diego Chargers: At this point, I’m trusting the Chargers to crush bad teams… even bad teams that show flashes of better. Chargers cover
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 at Baltimore Ravens: This is one of those weird spreads based on a crazy loss. I’m pretty sure this will be an ugly game by the Steelers, but one they probably pull out. Steelers outright
Monday
New England Patriots +3 at New Orleans Saints: The Saints have been slipping a little in recent weeks. Really, all signs point to the Patriots coming in and bringing the Saints a little taste of reality. And I don’t know why I’m not comfortable with pulling the trigger on taking them. I mean, the Patriots WITH points? I have to do it, though. Patriots outright
Spreadery
1) Rams +3 over Seahawks
2) Patriots +3 over Saints
3) Jags +3.5 over Niners
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