NFL Picks 2009: Week 11
Thursday
W/W – Miami Dolphins +3 at Carolina Panthers: Well, this should involve a lot of runningbacks. Here’s the thing though… Michael Turner managed 111 yards in ONE HALF. What are is Rickey Williams and Ronnie Brown going to do? The answer is probably “run a lot” and, don’t look now, but Chad Henne doesn’t suck. He’s probably completely ruined and will never be able to play in a traditional offense but, as for now, get some. Dolphins outright
Sunday
Cleveland Browns +2.5 at Detroit Lions: Yikes. I wonder if the good people of Detroit are rooting for this trainwreck to be blacked out. Since I have to pick this game — Matthew Stafford has shown some flashes of being a good quarterback and the Lions’ defense played 3 good quarters last week. The Browns allowed a touchdown to the Ravens because they only had 10 guys on the field. Lions *ugh* cover
Buffalo Bills +8.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars: The AFC South teams have been crushing Buffalo. I’m pretty sure that keeps happening here. Jaguars cover
Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 at Kansas City Chiefs: Everything here smells like a big bounceback game for the Steelers. As much as I hate taking the Steelers to cover big spreads, the Chiefs haven’t covered a spread against a good team all season. Steelers cover
Indianapolis Colts +1 at Baltimore Ravens: So… Vegas is calling for a letdown game. Really? Against a team that required the Browns to spot them a defensive player to score a touchdown? Maybe no one’s noticed the fact that Colts, historically, crush everyone and go 12-0 before mailing in December? And I get a point? Colts outright
Atlanta Falcons +6 at New York Giants: This is kind of a playoff game for both teams. If the Giants fall to a Wild Card, they’re already losing the tiebreak to the Eagles — so having a tiebreak against another possible Wild Card team is kind of a big deal. The Giants are home, they’re coming off a bye, and Michael Turner probably isn’t playing or is playing in a super limited role. If the Giants don’t win this game, the season is over. Giants cover
San Francisco 49ers +5.5 at Green Bay Packers: OK, back to the NFC West rule. Packers cover
Seattle Seahawks +11 at Minnesota Vikings: Hasselback in a dome with the Vikes best corner not playing. Too many points. Seahawks +11
Washington Redskins +12 at Dallas Cowboys: The ‘Skins are violating the NFC East rule by totally giving up on their coach due to the owner. The Cowboys are going to score two quick in the first quarter and the rest of the game will have a postage stamp on it. Cowboys cover
New Orleans Saints -11.5 at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs win and newfound ability to play teams close doesn’t impress me that much. Pretty sure Brees has a big fantasy day here. Saints cover
Arizona Cardinals -9 at St. Louis Rams: Oddly, the Rams have been decent at holding great passing games to fewer points than you’d expect. I see no reason they don’t do it here. Rams +9
New York Jets +10 at New England Patriots: In the old days, this is textbook case of the Patriots just beating up the Jets. Here’s the thing — minus that insane game vs the Titans, these aren’t those Patriots. Besides that point, I think this team is still going to play hard for Rex Ryan and they’re not a horrific team. They’re just not good. Too many points. Jets +10
Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 at Oakland Raiders: Right. Bengals cover
San Diego Chargers -2.5 at Denver Broncos: Who would have ever thought the following sentence would be typed. “Without Kyle Orton, the Broncos don’t have a shot.” Chargers cover
Philadelphia Eagles -2 at Chicago Bears: So, the Eagles have managed to go from “best in the NFC East” to “maybe a wildcard” in two weeks. This skid has to end sometime… the problem is that I don’t know if it ends on the road with no Brian Westbrook. I have a weird feeling it doesn’t. Bears outright
Monday
Tennessee Titans +3.5 at Houston Texans: I’m riding my Vince Young bandwagon until it crashes and burns. Titans outright
Spreadery
1) Titans +4.5 over Texans
2) Bengals -9.5 over Raiders
3) Steelers -10 over Chiefs
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