Jayson Stark Is A Bleak, Bleak Man
In lieu of the normal 10 Thoughts On August, I decided to let my friend and fellow Mike Mussina supporter Mike Hulse take the August Mets’ slot with a response column to Jayson Stark’s dire predictions of the Mets future. I think I’d like to get at Stark’s column in a point-by-point response some day but with football season and Germany looming — it may fall to the wayside. Below is Mike’s view on how to fix the Mets in $30M.
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Apparently Mr. Stark feels my beloved Mets are basically effed in the a. He claims the end is nigh.
I disagree.
So, I’m gonna fix it, right here, right now. And I’m gonna do it without one sided trades that you may hear listening to WFAN along the lines of ‘The mets should deal Daniel Murphy and Bobby Parnell for Roy Halladay’.
The holes are as follows;
- LF
- 2 rotation spots
- 1B
- C
- Lefty relief pitcher
- Set Up Man
- Possible change in management
I’m going to take the last one first. People who feel the whole thing should be blown up have a right to that opinion, but who, pray tell, will be coming in? On the executive front, who’s the big move to make? Prying Billy Beane from Oakland? You want someone off the Moneyball tree a la JP Ricciardi? He’s done great in Toronto. If you want Omar fired, awesome, but find a replacement. And before anyone says it… Bobby V isn’t coming back, and if he does, it guarantees nothing. I love Bobby V, but if he came back to lead the Mets to a championship, it would be the first time he did that, ever. Next year will be a make or break year for both Omar and Manuel. To be honest, watching the Mets backups playing out a worthless season with some fight in them speaks highly of Jerry. I’m voting stand pat, not because i think they’re infallible, but because there’s not a better alternative.
As far as the field goes, here’s the deal. The Mets save about $30 mil in expiring deals. It’s possible they won’t reinvest that money but assuming they do and don’t ADD payroll, it makes things tight. It also doesn’t help that the farm is thin so trading is out unless it’s for a mediocre player. They can make one ‘big’ deal and will have to piece it together from there. Here’s what I’m thinking, hole by hole:
1) LF – Jason Bay: This is your big move. The Mets have a massive hole in left. More an axe wound. It’s awful out there. I figure it’ll cost something like $12-15 mil per year, but he’s an excellent 2-way player and the Mets sorely need something like this. The deal also frees them up to trade Fernando Martinez who is about all the real value they have in the farm. Leaves the spending budget at $18 mil.
2) SP (2) – Erik Bedard, Brett Myers: The Mets need to roll the dice a little at this point unless they want to just blow it all up and rebuild everything. Both of these guys carry varying degrees of risk but with that comes the necessary discount. Erik Bedard has been plagued with injuries in his Seattle tenure, however, he only made $7.75 million last year and hasn’t done a thing to merit a raise. If he can be signed to something with incentives you may be able to get him for only like 5-7 mil guaranteed. That kind of money either gets your a risk or it gets you Livan Hernandez. Myers is wildly inconsistent but he’ll likely command a deal in the 4 years for $32 mil range. Best case: both starters cost you $13 mil next season, leaving $5 million in the budget.
3) 1B – Daniel Murphy: No, I don’t think Daniel Murphy is a long term solution at first. However, there is not a good 1B on the market and the Mets don’t have the prospects to deal for a guy like Adrian Gonzalez. Nick Johnson is the best free agent out there. I like Nick Johnson, but if I’m on a budget, I have more pressing needs with my money. I’d rather take a shot at Murphy developing into a .300 hitter with a little power than spend all I have left and then some on an injury prone .300 hitter with a little power.
4) C – Omir Santos: Santos has had a fine rookie year for a catcher, seems to be well liked for those who buy into ‘clubhouse guys’, got more than a few big hits for this team in a down year. He’s not a marquee guy who will win you anything, but he’s not losing you any games. Plus, he’s going to get better, not worse.
5) LHRP/Set up man – Mike Gonzalez: Assuming nobody blows him away with a $10 mil per year deal to close, he’s perfect. You have 5 million left which is what elite set up guys get. He’s a very good 8th inning guy to compliment Parnell and is left handed so Feliciano isn’t brought in for every game against Philly for the rest of his life. It’s cheaper than exercising JJ Putz’s 8 million dollar option, and Gonzo didn’t have elbow surgery this season.
So, $30 million bucks can solve major issues but not all of them. If the Mets can get creative, they can vault back into contention. Long term they do need to build the farm, but that takes time unless they decide to sell off everything. In the end, there can go a lot of different ways, however, the end is not nigh.
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