NFL Picks 2008 – Week 13
Thursday
Tennessee Titans -11 at Detroit Lions: It remains to be seen whether or not the loss to the Jets will start a division losing free-fall or if the Titans bounce right back. If you had to bounce right back, this is the right team to come out and abuse Titans cover.
Seattle Seahawks +13 at Dallas Cowboys: Imagine that… Dallas crushes a bad team and their spreads go off the deep end. Never saw that coming. Seahawks +13.
Arizona Cardinals +3 at Philadelphia Eagles: So, let’s get this straight. The two “traditional” Thanksgiving games both have double-digit spreads. The one good game for the entire day is exiled to the NFL Network so no one is going to see it. Excellent job. I wonder how many homes nationwide will be staring at 15-inch laptop sitting on top of a 50-inch television on Thursday night. All that said, EVERYTHING except the short-week jet lag combined with, you know, ACTUAL jet lag says to pick the Cardinals here. But, the Cards haven’t won a game east of the Mississippi all year. Eagles cover.
Sunday
Denver Broncos +8.5 at New York Jets: After knocking off the league’s last undefeated team on the road, they come home to face a bad team in a rowdy Meadowlands? Anything less than 14 is a must take in this game. Jets cover.
San Francisco 49ers +7 at Buffalo Bills: I’m pretty sure the Bills are good enough to crush another bad team at home… especially considering the trend of west coast teams traveling east getting crushed. And rumors persist that West Coasters are 3% more manly. Pshaw. Bills cover.
New Orleans Saints +4.5 at Tampa Bay Bucs: Eesh. Well. The Saints need to win this game to have any chance at all at making the playoffs. A loss pretty much ends their season. A win takes them to half a game back because they’d be 2-0 against the Bucs. I think a full-strength Saints team is going to surprise a slightly over-rated Bucs team. Saints outright.
Carolina Panthers +3 at Green Bay Packers: The Packers have a decent defense that embarrassed themselves on national television this past Monday. The Panthers gave up almost 50 against an semi-good Falcons team. The tiebreak — the Panthers are a mediocre team that doesn’t beat other mediocre teams. Nice cold Sunday in Lambeau. The Packers open up the door for the Saints. Packers cover.
New York Giants -3 at Washington Redskins: I was hoping this would be one of those cases where they dropped an absurd spread on this game so I could still pick the Redskins and make up a game. The Giants can knock the Redskins out of the divisional race this week and, if the game against the Steelers was any indication, do it in front of a home crowd. Giants cover.
Miami Dolphis -7.5 at St. Louis Rams: I’m not taking the Rams with any less than 14 points the rest of the season. Dolphins cover.
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals: I think this spread is based too much off their Week 1 match up. The Ravens have shown no indication that they’re going to do anything other then crush bad teams for the rest of the season. Really, the Ravens are playing in nothing but must-win games for the rest of the season and, fortunately for them, they SHOULD have a cream-puff here. Ravens cover.
Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Cleveland Browns: The spread on this game is indicative of the Colts’ season. The Colts just knocked off the Chargers (again) and the Browns, at home, got knocked off by the lowly Texans by 10. One week later and we’re expecting the Browns to keep it close against a Colts team that’s got a wildcard in sight? Doubtful… especially since the Colts have a semi-decent runningback who will become a superstar against this Browns’ run defense. Colts cover.
Atlanta Falcons +4.5 at San Diego Chargers: Yoof. This is an absolute, without a doubt, MUST win game for the Chargers. At 4-7, their only path to the playoffs is the division. The Broncos are playing a game in the Meadowlands that they will almost certainly lose. If the Chargers don’t pick up a game this week, their season is pretty much over. The problem with this: with the Bucs playing a tough game against the Saints and the Panthers playing a tough game against the Packers — A win here could move them in to a tie for the division. I think the Falcons go in to this stadium and make a statement. I think Michael Turner has a “how do you like me now” game. Falcons outright.
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 at New England Patriots: So, the Patriots play the Jets to a draw and crush Miami and suddenly they’re a favorite with arguably the best team in the conference? Steelers outright.
Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Oakland Raiders: 8-8. Playoffs. Book it. Done. Raiders (gasp) cover.
Chicago Bears +3.5 at Minnesota Vikings: Both teams are coming off big wins against bad teams. Both teams are in must-win situations to stay in the playoff hunt. Last time they played, neither team showed any indication that they could stop the other. So, really, we’re just deciding who wins the coin toss here. I’ll give the Vikings the home nod. Vikings cover.
Monday
Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at Houston Texans: Jeez guys. Seriously? At best, this would have been a late-season division squash. At worst, it’s this. One of the rare Monday night games that I probably won’t even turn on. We’ll give the nod to the Texans simply because they’re home and the Jaguars seem to be content to mail the rest of this season in. Texans cover.
Five Good Spreads
5 points – Saints +4.5 over Bucs
4 points – Eagles -3 over Cardinals
3 points – Falcons +4.5 over Chargers
2 points – Seahawks +13 over Cowboys
1 point – Giants -3 over Redskins