Archive for November 6th, 2008
NFL Picks 2008 - Week 10
Thursday
Denver Broncos +3 at Cleveland Browns: This game would have been an easy pick before the Browns folded to public pressure and decided to start Brady Quinn this week, moving this game off the “kind of a gimme” board and on to the “don’t put actual money on it if your life depends on it” board. I’m going to go out on a crazy limb here and assume that Derek Anderson’s 17/33 for 219 yards with 2 TDs and 1 INT was less the cause of the Browns’ last loss than Romeo’s dogged insistence on running Jamal Lewis off left guard in the fourth quarter for a total of 8 yards in four plays over two possessions. But I’m going to assume that the Browns are set up a little better for the short week being home then the Broncos are traveling and give the nod to the Browns… but holy crap do I not really believe it. Browns cover.
Sunday
Jacksonville Jaguars -6 at Detroit Lions: I’m tempted… very tempted… to take the Lions in this game. The Lions are still a bad team, don’t get me wrong, but Daunte Culpepper’s return to the league surrounded by an army of pretty decent receivers. The Lions are home, winless, and suddenly find themselves with a quarterback that, I think, a lot of the league has forgotten how good he is because he was stuck on the Raiders last year. The Lions have some hope. The Jags are reeling and on a second consecutive road game AND they play the divisional Titans next week. Callin it a Trap. Lions outright.
Tennessee Titans -3 at Chicago Bears: Before Rex Grossman took over for this team, I had this circled as one of the definitive losses on the Titans’ schedule. This was going to be the worst pass rushes that Kerry Collins had faced and I saw that movie in January of 2001. It isn’t pretty and involves 4 interceptions. On the other side, Rex Grossman is always a threat to throw 4 interceptions, too. I guess I’ll boil this down to home, Kerry Collins vs. a good defense, and the Bears linebackers keeping the Titans offense in check until The Dragon unleashes one downfield and the world discovers the Titans don’t play from behind very well. Bears outright.
Buffalo Bills +4.5 at New England Patriots: Buffalo is another team that hasn’t traveled particularly well this season, but New England hasn’t shown the ability to knock off even a moderately good team. I’m pretty sure the Bills cover this and also pretty sure they win it outright. I don’t know if I expect the Bills to contend with really good teams, but I think their offense is set up correctly to beat the Patriots ancient defense. Bills outright.
New Orleans Saints +1 at Atlanta Falcons: Other than London, the Saints have yet to win a road game this year. The Falcons have yet to lose a home game, including knocking off a pretty good Bears team. The Saints are still going to be down Reggie Bush and I don’t know if they have enough weapons without him. Falcons cover.
St. Louis Rams +8.5 at Jets: I can’t entertain the Rams with any fewer than 10 points, especially against a team, at home, who just scored first place in their division. Oddly, Favre seems to be trying to reign in his crazy “just chuck it” mentality just a little bit. Just doing that alone should prevent the Rams from doing anything crazy like… scoring. Jets cover.
Seattle Seahawks +9 at Miami Dolphins: I put Seattle and Denver in the same bucket, but 9 is too big for a Miami game — even WITH Seneca Wallace at QB. Seahawks +9.
Green Bay Packers +2 at Minnesota Vikings: I don’t have much for this game other than “go with the home team when you’re not sure.” Vikings cover.
Carolina Panthers -8.5 at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders’ offense only managed 77 yards against the Falcons for the entire game. Carolina hasn’t been traveling well but I have to assume they can abuse this team even though you can count on the Panthers less than a deadbeat gambler. Panthers cover.
Kansas City Chiefs +14 at San Diego Chargers: Mediocre team, double digit spread. Chiefs +14.
Indianapolis Colts +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers: After watching the Steelers rape the Redskins, who by all accounts are a pretty good team, for 60 minutes, I see no universe in which Willie Parker doesn’t run for 400 yards against the Colts defense and Peyton Manning doesn’t spend at least 20 plays eating Troy Pomualu’s hair. Steelers cover.
New York Giants +3 at Philadelphia Eagles: Ugh. Well. Unfortunately, Westbrook is playing. That’s a negative for the Giants. Fortunately, we’ve seen Donovan McNabb’s recent history in big games. I’m really torn here. If I pick the Giants in this game, I’m essentially picking them to run the table in the NFC East… because if they don’t lose to the Eagles on the road, how am I going to pick against them in Dallas, in Washington, or against any of those teams at home down the stretch? That said, I usually take the points in these games and I do think the Giants can contain Westbrook and I’m pretty sure their balanced attack will be too much for Philly to handle. Giants outright.
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at Houston Texans: This is the make-up of the week 2 game that was hurricaned out. For Baltimore, it created a crappy stretch of 3 road games starting last week in Cleveland and ending next week in the Meadowlands. The Texans fooled everyone in to thinking they were more than a bad team on a 4-week homestand. I also don’t know that the Ravens can win a game like they won last week and then fold up against a bad team. Ravens outright.
Monday
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: There’s no reason this shouldn’t be the first awful Monday Night Football game to close out the year. Cards cover.
Five Good Spreads
5 points - Chiefs +14 over Chargers
4 points - Panthers -8.5 over Raiders
3 points - Falcons -1 over Saints
2 points - Bears +3 over Titans
1 point - Giants +3 over Eagles