Archive for October 14th, 2008
NFL Picks 2008 - Week 6 Results
I can’t imagine why people think gambling on the NFL is fun. Even with no money on the game, I was watching Jets/Bengals with the Jets up by a comfortable 13 points. The Bengals, with less than a minute to play, were desperately trying to score a garbage time touchdown which would have pushed the game to the over AND covered the spread at the same time. As I’m watching this go on, I couldn’t help but think had I bet on this game, where I certainly would have taken the Jets -10 and the under, how much I my eyes would be crossing praying that the Jets wouldn’t just let the Bengals walk in to the end zone in prevent. I can’t imagine how this is fun unless the team you bet on is up 28-3 by halftime.
Speaking of which, Vegas has to be making a killing this year. I know I’m not an NFL expert, but I checked my record for last year and compared it to this year through six weeks. Last year at this time I was 21 games over .500 straight up and 5 games over .500 against the spread. This year I’m just taking a bath. But, apparently this is balanced out by a 6-0 fantasy start.
W/W - Saints -7 over Raiders, 34-3, Saints cover. Not much to see here. The Raiders on the road and less than 2 touchdowns in their current state is probably a safe pick.
L/L - Colts -6.5 over Ravens, 31-3, Ravens outright. The Colts have been one of the league’s two sleeping giants. It was just a matter of if they were going to wake up or not. I have been picking them to stay asleep, especially against a pass defense that’s been as good as the Ravens. Turns out not so much.
W/W - Jets -6.5 over Bengals, 26-14, Jets cover: This became the easiest pick on the board when Palmer sat down and it was still almost screwed up with a garbage time touchdown. The Bengals are going to be a team that’s impossible to gamble against with big spreads because you have no idea when they’re just going to explode for a huge game. It could happen at any time. That said, if you told me they go 0-12 after dropping one of the few remaining winnable games on their schedule, I’d be wholly unsurprised. They’re looking like this year’s version of the Jets — losing a lot of games but making few enough mistakes to keep some games close.
L/L - Bucs -1.5 over Panthers, 27-3, Panthers outright: The Panthers offense isn’t usually anemic and the Bucs defense doesn’t border on good. Put this in the large group of “defensive performances that team won’t be able to reproduce” from this week.
W/W - Vikings -13 over Rams, 12-10, Lions +13: Is it safe to call All Day the biggest fantasy bust of 2008 yet? Or is that Tom Brady? We have to go with AP based on the fact he went in the top 3 of every league while I got Brady 10th, right? If he was great, shouldn’t he have rushed for like 450 yards against the Lions?
L/L - Falcons +1.5 over Bears, 22-20, Bears cover: It’s unfortunate the Bears had no answer for the Falcon’s six-second offense. We have to figure Matt Ryan’s a superhero in ATL now, right?
L/W - Texans -3 over Dolphins, 29-28, Dolphins outright: Meh. One of those games where betting with a spread is actually better. You pretty much knew this game was going to be close and could go either way so might as well take the 3 points and roll with it.
L/L - Rams +14 over Redskins, 19-17, Redskins cover: When Jason Campbell only put up 9 points for me on Sunday, I presumed that Eli Manning was going to make me pay for doubting him. Instead, Eli’s first meltdown game since Minnesota last season made the 9 points look like sweet nectar. This had let-down game written all over it, but it’s hard to pick that way. You have to go with the pick that will be right 9 games out of 10.
L/L - Jaguars +3 over Broncos, 24-17, Broncos cover: And this is how the Jags and Broncos are both going to be all season.
W/W - Eagles -4.5 over Niners, 40-26, Eagles cover: Correl Buckhalter may go down as the waiver-wire pick-up of the season. Grabbed in week 4 to cover a bye-week on and available because of Westbrook’s injury, he’s now come off the bench in 2 weeks to deliver 20-30 point days and pull games out of the fire for me. At this point, he’s the MVP on the still-undefeated Ms. L Superstars.
L/W - Cardinals +6 over Cowboys, 30-24, Cards cover. I’d like to personally send my thanks to the Cardinals for not only knocking off the Cowboys and hurting their conference record, but also removing their punter, Felix Jones, and Tony Romo for 4 weeks. That’s some good footballin’ former division rivals. If that wasn’t enough, Pacman Jones is suspended again for violating the conduct policy and Roy Williams and TO get to enjoy each other’s company while Brad Johnson is throwing the ball. This is great. I want every Cowboys’ game on national television for the rest of the year.
L/L - Packers +3 over Seahawks, 27-17, Seahawks cover: My fault for not checking to confirm Hasselbeck was playing.
L/L - Chargers -5 over Patriots, 30-10, Patriots outright: So, here’s what we know about the Patriots - 1) the more teams that watch Matt Cassel, the easier time they’re having flustering him. 2) Brady is not a system quarterback who could be replaced with anyone who is moderately competent. 3) The league MVPs Brady were given are not mistakes. The Chargers are also the 2nd sleeping giant team that looks to have woken up.
L/L - Browns -7 over Giants, 35-14, Giants cover: A game like this was coming — I was just expecting it to be next week. The Giants pass-rush was completely unable to get to Derek Anderson as the Browns were apparently playing 17 guys on the line at all times. They got raped on 3rd down and didn’t force a punt THE ENTIRE NIGHT. The Browns played their “No F’n Way” card on prime time and the Giants had no response. The Giants offense, for some reason, decided to get Plaxico a lot of looks even though he’s back to occasionally giving up on routes and leaving wide open interceptions… and the Giants apparently have forgotten that they can mix-up the running game with two finesse backs. Also, when Plaxico starts giving up on routes, can we possibly try to remember we have three other options at wideout? In this particular game, it wouldn’t have mattered since apparently the defense decided to spend the week in New York.
Five Good Spreads
5 points - Eagles -4.5 over Niners - W
4 points - Giants -7 over Browns - L
3 points - Patriots +5 over Chargers - L
2 points - Jets -6.5 over Bengals - W
1 point - Cardinals +6 over Cowboys - W
Standings
Straight Up: 4-10 (42-46)
Spread: 6-8 (43-43-2)
Point Pool: 8/15 (48/90 - .533)
And there is the 4-win “take a bath” week to keep you honest. Just in case you’re keeping track, that’s 4-under instead of 21-over this year.
Gambling is stupid.