NFL Picks 2008 - Week 6
Sunday
Oakland Raiders +7 at New Orleans Saints: The Al Davis Karmawagon rolls on. Saints cover.
Baltimore Ravens +6.5 at Indianapolis Colts: In bizzarro season, I’m not sure what the answer is here. Baltimore isn’t great on the road but Indy’s stadium and ridiculous “don’t stand, drink, cheer, or have fun” rules have kind of revealed themselves to cut in to the benefit given by home field advantage. Let’s also keep in mind they almost lost to a semi-bad Texans team and would have if not for a total miracle collapse. This isn’t exactly the Baltimore defense of The Year That Never Happened, but it doesn’t suck either. Ravens outright.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 at New York Jets: The Bengals are really due to put it all together in a win here… they almost did it last time they were in the Meadowlands. Another thing… if the Bengals are as bad as they’ve looked, this is their last winnable game before honestly staring down the barrel of 0-12. Their schedule get BRUTAL after this. Even with all that, I can’t pick them to win… but I can pick them to cover. Bengals +6.5. Edit: 2:42 pm - Carson Palmer out. Pfft. This line is going to move to like 13 by Sunday. Jets cover
Carolina Panthers +1.5 at Tampa Bay Bucs: The Bucs are in the bottom 3rd of the league defending the pass. Jake Delhomme, Steve Smith, and Mushin Muhammed should be able exploit this. Panthers outright.
Detroit Lions +13 at Minnesota Vikings: Not a huge fan of gigantic spreads in divisional games anyway. On top of that, I reminded myself a few weeks ago not to take huge spreads with mediocre teams. Lions +13.
Chicago Bears -1.5 at Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons at home but the Bears defense SHOULD be able to contain Michael Turner. The Kyle Orton express is going to come off the rails here pretty soon, but I doubt it will be here. Bears cover.
Miami Dolphins +3 at Houston Texans: I understand this is the standard “team on the road gets three points” spread, but don’t you think that beating the Patriots and Chargers in consecutive games earns you a modicum of respect against the Texans? On the other hands, the Texans should have beaten the Colts. I’m going to go ahead and say that the Dolphins are the better pick here… even on the road. Dolphins outright.
St. Louis Rams +14 at Redskins: I picked up Jason Campbell as a stopgap to get me through Eli Manning’s bye week (who I picked up in the 10th round to get through Tom Brady’s bye week)… now, he’s getting the nod over Eli this week and, as I have Santana Moss, let’s hope for 4 Campbell to Moss hookups. Redskins cover.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos: The Broncos have been pretty good at eeking out wins at home. The Jaguars have been pretty good at not winning tough games. Broncos cover.
San Francisco 49ers +4.5 at Philadelphia Eagles: Let’s put it this way, if the Eagles lose this game, their season is over. Eagles cover.
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Arizona Cardinals: The cracks in the Dallas roster is starting to show and it can’t be better for me. First, TO starts a bit of complaining that he’s not seeing enough. Then, his random breakdown on the sidelines this week (presumably because a family member died which, if true, I will give him a pass on). Followed then by the completely unsurprising Pacman Jones “scuffle” following a party with Ludacris. A loss in this game would be phenomenal…. and the Cards are home. Eff it, they’re at least covering. Cardinals +6.
Green Bay Packers +3 at Seattle Seahawks: This sheet is making me very nervous because there are too many underdogs that I see winning outright. The Seahawks did get blown out by the Giants last week, but they’re getting blown out because of injuries. The Cheaterdome is going to be a tough road test for a banged up Aaron Rogers who’s only really playing hurt because Favre did. There could be a record number of injury timeouts in this game. I’ve talked myself in to both scenarios, so I’ll go with the home team. Seahawks cover.
New England Patriots +5 at San Diego Chargers: Bleh. The Chargers are quickly revealing that their character of “team that doesn’t play well through adversity” hasn’t gone away. Besides the fact, if we saw the Dolphins beat them last week, you think Belicheck wasn’t watching? Patriots outright.
Monday
New York Giants +7 at Cleveland Browns: Get used to seeing the Giants in prime time, because Giants/Redskins and Giants/Ravens have a pretty decent chance of getting flex-scheduled in to the Sunday Night game… and the only reason the Giants/Steelers game won’t be is because it’s too early in the season. One thing this Giants team has proven is that home/road is meaningless to them. The Giants should handily win this game. Giants cover.
Five Good Spreads
No easy NFC East spreads this week. Boo.
5 points - Eagles -4.5 over Niners
4 points - Giants -7 over Browns
3 points - Patriots +5 over Chargers
2 points - Jets -6.5 over Bengals
1 point - Cardinals +6 over Cowboys