NFL Picks 2008 - Week 5
Let’s see how “.500 Season 2008″ goes. As a quick update, my cobbled together line-up went to 4-0 last week even though worthless Pierre Thomas managed 1 carry for 1 yard. This week, we’re calling on Warrick Dunn @Denver and Mushin Muhammed @KC to bring the Superstars to a 5-0 start.
—
Indianapolis Colts -3 at Houston Texans: The Colts are favored because of reputation, nothing else. Steve Slaton is going to rush for somewhere between 100 and 7,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. Texans outright.
Tennessee Titans -3 at Baltimore Ravens: The battle of undefeated teams. Also, the battle of teams that I never, ever choose correctly. Here, I also have no idea, so I’ll go with the home team. Ravens outright.
San Diego Chargers -7 at Miami Dolphins: This game would probably be +10 if not for the Dolphins stunning performance against the Patriots last week. If the Dolphins weren’t home, I wouldn’t even consider taking the Dolphins here, but a large spread coming off a huge win and a fired up crowd. I think this game is going to be a lot closer than people think. Dolphins +7
Kansas City Chiefs +10 at Carolina Panthers: If the Chiefs are getting 10 after actually winning last week, what would this spread have been if they lost? That said, the Panthers are home and the Chiefs defense is not holding down Steve Smith. On the other hand, I give Julius Peppers the nod at holding LJ down until the Chiefs have to go to their disastrous passing game. Panthers cover.
Washington Redskins +6 at Philadelphia Eagles: Not only would I take the Redskins here just because it’s more than my 3 point NFC East rule, but I’m not quite so sure that the Redskins aren’t going to win this outright. The Eagles plan to have Westbrook back but Donovan McNabb is still proving that he has some fourth quarter performance anxiety. If the Eagles had no answer for Romo/TO/Barber, I’m not sure why anyone is convinced they have an answer for Campbell/Moss/Portis. Redskins +6.
Chicago Bears -3 at Detroit Lions: At least the chance to improve is in sight, Lions’ fans. Bears cover.
Atlanta Falcons +10 at Green Bay Packers: Just last week I said that I wasn’t going to pick the Falcons on the road. But, then again, the Packers have seemed exceptional at home. Packers cover.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: The Giants are historically awful after a bye week. They don’t have their best receiver which means it’s going to be relatively difficult for them to put a team away. If the Giants win this by a touchdown, I’ll be surprised. Seahawks +9
Tampa Bay Bucs at Denver Broncos: Tampa is obviously better than I thought. Denver is not. Bucs outright.
New England Patriots -3.5 at San Francisco 49ers: Belicheck had a reputation for destroying his teams off losses. If the lackluster defense the Patriots brought against the Dolphins is any indication, the Patriots are going to be in rare form this week. If they’re not, we might have to re-address the Patriots as a “good” team and remember that they’re a defense built to play with a lead brought by a great passing offense…. who has neither a good passer or a decent runner to fall back on. Patriots cover.
Buffalo Bills +1.5 at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are favored here for 3 reasons. 1) The aggregate record of NFL teams after giving up 50 points the week before is like 1,000-2. 2) The Cards have been really good at home this year. 3) It’s a huge game for the Cardinals. If they don’t respond to a whuppin’ they won’t respond. The Bills have been blessed the last couple of weeks and the karma has to run out at some point. Cardinals cover.
Cincinnati Bengals +14 at Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys will come out and blow the doors off a bad team and the national media will all start fellating them again. We’ll immediately forget that they have no defense to speak of and that the Bengals are playing either a gimpy QB or a back-up QB. All will be right with the world again. Then just wait until they destroy the Rams last week. They’ll be the best team in the universe!! Cowboys cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags, at some point, snuck over the line to “good team” from “underachieving team” when no one was paying attention. The Steelers seem to be just struggling by. The Steelers blitz will probably be neutered by Fred Taylor. Jags cover.
Monday
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at New Orleans Saints: Spreads on the Vikings are going to be very odd this year because Adrian Peterson is one of those guys who can pop-off for a 300 yard night on any given Sunday. But… with Deuce back I think the Saints are going to be very difficult to beat. Also, this is the third consecutive week that the Monday night game has featured huge fantasy football guys. Saints cover.
Five Good Spreads
5 - Washington +6 over Philly
4 - Panthers -10 over Chiefs
3 - Bears -3 over Detroit
2 - Seahawks +9 over Giants
1 - Cowboys -14 over Bengals