TDL’s Sports, Wrestling, & Otherwise

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s move on to something more depressing — week 9 picks.

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Sunday
Houston Texans +4.5 at Minnesota Vikings: The Texans have won three straight games and are heading out on the road for the first time in a month. The Vikings are coming off their bye week having two weeks to stew over giving up 50 in Chicago. I think this falls under the “teams who give up 50 generally do pretty well the following game. We also all have to keep in mind that Houston hasn’t really beaten anyone and gave up 21 to a really, really bad Lions team. If I had to pick a game that AP was going to drop one of THOSE games on the world, it’d be this one. Vikings cover.

Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville hasn’t played well outside their division at all this season. On the other hand, Cincy hasn’t put up more than 14 points since Carson Palmer called it a season. Until they prove they can do better than their current 10 PPG average, I see no reason to pick them this season. Jags cover.

Tampa Bay Bucs +8 at Kansas City Chiefs: The Bucs lost a game on the road last week that they probably shouldn’t have lost. After crushing Carolina and beating up Seattle by 10, I don’t see any reason last week was anything more than a hiccup. Back to crushing bad teams for the Bucs. Bucs cover.

Baltimore Ravens +1 at Cleveland Browns: This is an awful, awful game to pick. Both teams are mediocre bordering on good. Both teams can lose to anyone on any given day. Neither team has a really “holy sh*t” thing to push it in their direction. I can’t really call it for anything other than the Browns have owned the Ravens at home the last few years. Browns cover.

New York Jets +5.5 at Buffalo Bills: This is another awful, awful game to pick. Buffalo has been pretty steadily knocking teams off at home. The Jets desperately tried to lose to the Chiefs last week. I don’t think the Bills drop two divisional games in a row but I do think this game ends closer than a touchdown. Jets +5.5.

Arizona Cardinals -3 at St. Louis Rams: I know the Cardinals have struggled a bit of late but, if they’re actually a decent team, 3 point should be nothing in St. Louis. Cards outright.

Detroit Lions +12.5 at Chicago Bears: The Bears beat the Lions by 30 in Detroit earlier this season. The Lions have done nothing to presume that the outcome of this game would be any different. If this wasn’t a division game, the fact that the Bears are playing the Titans next week would spray paint “TRAP” in bright yellow letters all over this game. Since trap games aren’t usually in the division, I’m calling this blowout for the Bears. Bears cover.

Green Bay Packers +5 at Tennessee Titans: I’ve been hearing some folks calling this a trap game. I don’t think you can, by definition, have a trap game at home. If anything’s a trap game, it would be next week in Chicago before coming home for a divisional game against the Jags. If I had to guess, though, the Titans probably knock off GB and CHI before dropping the undefeated bid to the Jags in Florida. Titans cover.

Miami Dolphins +3.5 at Denver Broncos: Weird game for Denver as they have to play this game at home and immediately go to Cleveland for the first NFL Network game. After two straight losses, I’m pretty sure that Denver will be able to bounce back against the Dolphins… besides the point, taking the Dolphins on the road against a decent team is a shaky prospect, at best. Denver covers.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Oakland Raiders: The Falcons have proven they can beat bad teams on the road. The Raiders have proven they might be able to beat a college team at home. Falcons cover.

Dallas Cowboys +7.5 at New York Giants: Very rarely do I ever take the favorite in NFC East games if the spread is more than three. However, this game is very rare. It’s not the norm that you get a team in your building for the first time since the previous year’s NFC playoffs that spent every second of the offseason talking about how they were better than you. They spent the entire pre-season talking about how they were better than you. Now, you get a shot at them, in your building, beat up by injury and ripe to be taught a lesson? I think the Giants are going to throw Dallas an EPIC beating this weekend. Giants cover.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Seattle Seahawks: Anything less then 10 points makes this an easy pick, I think. The Seahawks’ claim to fame in the last few weeks has been “crushing the 49ers on the road.” I don’t think they have anything the Eagles can’t crush. With Westbrook playing I don’t think the Seahawks’ quest to remain above “pitiful” will work out. Eagles cover.

New England Patriots +5 at Indianapolis Colts: Boy, I bet this match-up sounded really good on paper. I said last week that I don’t think the Colts can really beat up any good teams. The question is “can the Colts’ line be picked apart by the Patriots’ geriatric linebackers”. The answer is “yeah, probably.” Besides the point, I’m pretty sure Matt Cassel will be able to find Randy Moss a couple of times considering the Patriots’ line will be able to pick up and toss most of the Colts’ pass rushers. Patriots outright.

Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 at Washington Redskins: Besides the fact that this falls under the NFC East rule I’m pretty sure that Roethlisberger’s motorcycle accident was less punishing then four months of getting the bejesus kicked out of him. Like, I honestly don’t know where people are getting this “The Steelers are a Super Bowl Team” thing… against any good team, B-Roth gets murdered. It’s not surprising that their two losses have come at the hands of teams with good pass rushes. The Giants got to him on around 60% of his drops. I imagine the Eagles did something similar. I see no reason the Redskins won’t continue this trend. Redskins cover.

Five Good Spreads
5 points - Giants -7.5 over Cowboys
4 points - Redskins -2.5 over Steelers
3 points - Eagles -7 over Seahawks
2 points - Cards -3 over Rams
1 point - Falcons -3 over Raiders

I stopped writing these a while back because I couldn’t get myself up for them. I found myself doing my best to find anything else to write about — to the point where I started about 15 things in my draft queue that I’m probably never going to finish. It then occurred to me that the stupid blog-that-lacks-a-name is supposed to be fun. After the infomercial tonight (in which I decided that I can’t think of anyone better to reign in wasteful government spending then a guy who’d drop the cash to rent Invesco Field and buy a half-hour infomercial at 8pm during fall TV season) I’ve decided that I can’t take the election anymore.

For quite some time my decision had been made. I liked McCain in 2000 when he ran against Bush in the primary. I also generally agree with the Republican’s stance that the economy tends to be better off when less of people’s money is sucked in to the gaping black hole in Washington. I also have huge misgivings about Obama’s health care plan. I have a huge problem with a Obama teaching kids from a very young age that it’s totally normal to rely on the government for everything (via the college service tax check from Uncle Sam). The more I read, the more I became bothered by these gigantic government programs that seem to be the cornerstone of the entire Obama campaign.

Then, recently, I came across an article about 401(k)’s and it brought the whole thing together for me. With Obama’s impending election, a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and control of the House — all the pet projects Democrats have had for the last 8 years get green-lit. This includes taxing retirement savings (while in the same breath complaining that Americans don’t save enough for retirement… but… whatever). Because an investment account designed to make money over 40 years lost money over six months, the obvious answer is to start messing with a retirement savings program that most people seem to like. On top of that, let’s just call it what it is — a thinly-veiled way to bolster a failing Social Security programs that Democrats are desperate to save… just like their dogged insistence that Bush’s calls to take a gander at what was going on with Fannie Mae was nonsense. Besides… who needs personal savings accounts when the government can provide? Who needs to decide what they need to save when the government can take what you need and just pay you what they think is fair?

From the article: A less radical idea under consideration would permit all workers to contribute to “universal” 401(k) plans.

This is where we’re going?

Besides that point, here is a general list of things supported by the last Congress:

* no secret ballot to unionize
* “fairness doctrine” - allowing the gov to dictate content of media outlets
* various tax hikes (depending on what plans we are talking about)
* dramatic expansion of the definition of a “child” for gov’t health care purposes, or just the all out gov’t plan for all.
* re-institution of drilling bans on OCS and oil shale while insisting we need to end our dependence on foreign oil.
* rewrite of DC gun ban, plus likely expansion of federal restrictions
* a flood of justices to lower courts after the Senate’s 8-years of whining and stamping their feet about Bush appointees.
* adding House and or Senate members, with voting rights, to the House and Senate for DC

We’re staring down the barrel of a massive, New Deal-esque expansion of government with Obama somehow insisting he’s going to manage to cut taxes on 98% of Americans while only 60% of Americans pay federal taxes in the first place. Which seems… stunning. After watching the infomercial, it makes me wonder why so many people are trying to come here illegally when it obviously sucks so much to live here.

And that leaves me with a guy whose 114 years old who voted for a banking bailout, wants to nationalize mortgage loans, and picked maybe the worst VP candidate in the nation’s history in hopes to rally the crazy Religious Right into voting for him when they were never, ever going to vote for Obama in the first place.

But I can’t pick against the Giants because David Carr sucks.

I guess the problem with running on a platform of Change is that some people liked it the way it was. I’m not going to volunteer for socialism… you’ll have to bring it to me.

I’m voting for McCain.

With the Bears on a bye, Willie Parker hurt, Reggie Bush hurt, Jerricho Cotchery questionable, and Jerry Porter not playing — the week looked bleak for the Ms. L Superstars. The patchwork squad took the ball and ran with it, bringing the team to their largest win (52 pts) of the season. The beating was so bad I asked the opponent if he’d decided to play or just concede the rest of the season to me. Either way, I’d take it.

You may note by the fantasy football talk that I’m already over the season of picks, as I’m getting whipped in picks by everyone local. I need to re-examine how I do picks here for the 2nd half of the season… see if I can at least pull out a week or two to make it a respectable finish.

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W/W - Ravens -8 over Ravens, 29-10, Ravens cover: One of my one week stop-gap pickups was a Raider and I still won by 50. The Ms. L Superstars are too much for mortals to handle.

L/W - Saints +3.5 over Chargers, 37-32, Saints +3.5: I’m sure the NFL was a little more excited by this shoot-out in London as opposed to the incredibly boring game the Giants and Dolphins put on last year. I didn’t watch this game (there were too many NFC East and AFC East games on at 1pm for the bar to put this game on a big TV) but I would have liked to watch this game just to see the ridiculous things that go on in the NFL that would confuse the British soccer fans. You know… like stopping play for 5 minutes so the referee can determine if a guy’s knee is down 1 millisecond before fumbling the ball. This really is a ridiculous game we’re a fan of.

W/L - Jets -12 over Chiefs, 28-24, Jets cover: The Jets should thank their lucky stars that Herm Edwards is the coach of the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs at 05:20
1-10-KC 20 (5:20) 21-K.Smith left tackle to KC 23 for 3 yards (99-B.Thomas, 93-K.Coleman).
2-7-KC 23 (4:40) 21-K.Smith left tackle to KC 27 for 4 yards (50-E.Barton, 97-C.Pace).
3-3-KC 27 (3:57) 21-K.Smith left tackle to KC 29 for 2 yards (77-K.Jenkins).
Thanks Herm!!

L/L - Dolphins +1.5 over Bills, 25-16, Bills cover: More evidence that reason and logic should be thrown out in divisional games.

L/L - Cowboys -3.5 over Bucs, 13-9, Bucs outright: The Cowboys “crazy offense” didn’t win this, that’s for sure… but it’s kind of unsurprising that Dallas made a stand at home and my hatred of Dallas blinded me to my NFC East rule (don’t pick against any team outside the division without a good reason ever).

W/W - Eagles -7.5 over Eagles, 27-14, Eagles cover: I remembered the NFC East rule here and I hate the Eagles almost as much as I hate the Cowboys. It really is disturbing how much I can hate one single organization. The unfortunate thing here is that Westbrook being healthy nerfs my Buckhalter pickup.

W/T - Patriots -7 over Rams, 23-16, Patriots cover: Pretty much exactly how I figured. The Rams are still a bad team and should get beat up by almost every other team on their schedule.

W/L - Panthers -4.5 over Cardinals, 27-23, Panthers cover: Stupid friggin half-points.

W/L - Redskins -8.5 over Lions, 25-17, Redskins cover: Twice.

L/W - Browns +7 over Jags, 23-17, Browns +7: As it turned out, the Jags have not caught up to the Browns defense. The Browns looked like a great team against the Giants… they’ve looked great since. Maybe it’s time to buy in to them? (Note: this guarantees a let-down game next week).

W/W - Giants +2 over Steelers, 21-14, Giants outright: For a “good team” the Steelers really make a ton of mistakes and have a horrifying bad offensive line. Like, I know people have been talking about how bad their line is but you really don’t understand until you’ve seen them play a whole game. I don’t know where people are getting that this is a Super Bowl team with this line. I really don’t.

W/L - Texans -10 over Bengals, 35-6, Bengals +10… potential for upset of the week: Potential… I said potential. Stick a fork in the Bengals for the rest of the year. There’s no reason to pick them for the rest of the year.

L/L - Seahawks +2.5 over Niners, 34-13, Niners cover: Whatever.

L/L - Titans -3.5 over Colts, 31-21, Colts cover: The window for this year has closed on the Colts. They have a terrible line, a defense designed to play from ahead playing from behind, and a quarterback who is not good behind a shaky line. The Colts probably aren’t going to get beat up by any moderately good teams.

Five Good Spreads
5 points - Bills -1.5 over Dolphins - L
4 points - Redskins -8.5 over Lions - L
3 points - Bucs +3.5 over Dallas - L
2 points - Browns +7 over Jags - W
1 point - Patriots -8 over Rams - W

Standings

Straight Up: 8-6 (59-57)
Spread: 5-8-1 (55-58-3)
Point Pool: 3/15 (54/120 - .450)

–

*sigh*

The head of our division guaranteed that none of the almost 3,000 layoffs from Parent Company are supposed to come from Parent Company’s Litigation Support division. At the end of the day — suing people is recession-proof.

I fully expect this to mean that our entire division will be fired by noon tomorrow

From: [Big Boss]@xxxxxxxx
Sent: Fri 10/24/2008 4:36 PM
Required: All
Subject: Meeting Request - [Parent Company] Update
Location: Dial-In
When: Monday, October 27, 2008 3:00 PM-4:00 PM

Big Boss

—

Awesome.

I still can’t believe she married Wesley Windham-Price

=(

Pete’s Tavern House Ale
Brewed By: ?
Brewed In: ?
Type: Dark Ale
ABV: ?

What They Say: Nothing — near as I can tell the beer is only available on draft and only available in the tavern itself. They insist the beer is the original recipe used in 1864 when the bar opened. The bar claims the (disputed) title of “oldest bar in Manhattan”. The dispute is based on the fact that there are bars in Manhattan that were opened sooner, Pete’s remained open — albeit disguised as a flower shop — as a Speakeasy through Prohibition. Not surprisingly, it sits in a Manhattan neighborhood (Gramercy) that has known money forever and is one of those spots that I don’t feel like I have enough net worth to even walk through. For reference, the neighborhood is named for Gramercy Park, a small, one-block park in the center of the neighborhood. The park is private. It’s surrounded by iron fences and has locked gates to which only the residents who live on the block surrounding the park have keys.

Website: You’re arguably the oldest tavern in New York City. You make your own beer — the recipe of which hasn’t changed since 1864… you can probably do better than a free Geocities website that you haven’t updated since Geocities was invented. Seriously.

Why I Picked It: Pete’s Tavern is rapidly becoming one of my favorite bars in the city. A decently mixed crowd and supremely reasonable drink prices make it a great place for a group. If you get there early enough to grab the corner near the door it’s quite a good place to spend a night. A decent number of HDTVs on local sports with music that just borders on “shout” level. They have a back-room with no music for folks who want to eat dinner and outdoor space. I really have no idea how a bar maintains a license for outdoor space in a neighborhood with as much money as Gramercy. The number of favors owed to this establishment must be mind-blowing. I had never noticed a tap for the House Ale but spotted it on the menu.

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Presentation (5): Draft only — doesn’t really count. As I also didn’t see the tap, I can’t comment. N/A

Originality (5): As the recipe is supposedly from the mid-1800s, it’s hard to fairly compare its originality to anything in the modern day. Too complicated so I’m not rating it. N/A

Body (10): A prototypical draught dark ale — low carbonation and a medium consistency. Low carbonation is admittedly one of my favorite features of dark ales and this one was no different. 8

Taste (10): The thing I love about dark ales is they rarely tend to be overcarbonated and never really taste watered down. At the same time, the beer was wet enough not to dry your mouth out and an almost total lack of bitterness made this a perfect beer to have with my tasty burger. If I had to compare it to something easily available, it would be a thinner version of Newcastle. 10

Efficiency (10): Tough to say. In fairness, though, I had two with my dinner and felt like I could have had ten more without noticing. The under $5/pint price is a good deal for Manhattan but I’d also expect, at the very least, a tingle off two. No dice. 4

Versatility (10): Considering the fact it’s only available in one bar in the city and only on draft, it’s tough to use it for anything other than “getting drunk at Pete’s Tavern while watching a ballgame.” While that’s an excellent use, it kind of hurts the versatility score. 1

Final Grade: 23 (of 40) (translates to 29/50) - good beer.

Oakland Raiders +8 at Baltimore Ravens: The Raiders humbled me last week by beating the Jets in what I thought was going to be an epic blowout, ancient QB or no. I have to assume the Raiders come back to earth this week. Ravens cover.

San Diego Chargers -3.5 vs. New Orleans Saints (London): Last year the Giants barely held-off a winless Dolphin team on a field that was much more used to having 150 lb dudes frolic around and kick a ball for 90 minutes than 300 lb dudes bashing into each other for 60 minutes. If it’s anything similar this year (and I’ll take a flyer on it raining Saturday or Sunday in London) much of the scoring will again be muted. Either way I’m not picking this game to be separated by more than 3 points in either direction which means the spread pick will be the Saints. That said, without Reggie Bush, I have a hard time betting a win on a guy named Pierre. Saints +3.5.

Kansas City Chiefs +12 at New York Jets: I think if I pick against the Chiefs and the spread I’ll be good 12 to 14 times out of 16 this year. I’ll go with that. Jets cover.

Buffalo Bills -1.5 at Miami Dolphins: I can’t figure out if the Bills are really this good or if they are starting to border on “overrated”. I’m used to at least being able to catch a couple of Bills’ games per season because they would at least air the games in Albany. In the city, you only get Jets/Giants because they apparently can’t even air anything on the other channel when one of the local teams is playing. Regardless, divisional matchup and the Bills should come out the better team here. Bills cover.

Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 at Dallas Cowboys: I feel like the only reason the Bucs are getting points here are because of the Cowboy’s mystique. We here at The Blog I Really Need To Find A Name For find mystique overrated. The ONLY reason I’d think about taking the Cowboys is their crazy offense… but the offense doesn’t help you tackle. Bucs outright.

Atlanta Falcons +7.5 at Philadelphia Eagles: Westbrook should get a half in before re-injuring something. Is one half of Westbrook good enough to beat Matt Ryan on the road? Probably. Eagles cover.

St. Louis Rams +7 at New England Patriots: While I won’t go so far as to say the Patriots are “back” I can, at least, say they have now at least shown the ability to beat up on a bad team and, regardless of what happened last week, the Rams are still a bad team. Patriots cover.

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at Carolina Panthers: The Cards have had two weeks to sit on their huge win over the Cowboys. Now, coming off their bye week they go to Carolina who still can’t really figure out if they’re a good or a bad team. Carolina has become one of the new teams that I just can’t pick. They’re home now and I’m not buying the Kurt Warner resurrection train. Panthers cover.

Washington Redskins -8.5 at Detroit Lions: Pretty sure this week for the Redskins is going to be similar to the Giants week following the Browns — they’ll find it much easier to score against only 11 players. The only question is really “what week are the Lions going to go balls out and actually win a game?” I’m thinking not this week. Redskins cover.

Cleveland Browns +7 at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags have not been really stellar on offense and the Browns have gotten away with playing 36 guys on defense for the last two weeks. Let’s just say they’ll keep it close at the very least. Browns +7.

New York Giants +2 at Pittsburgh Steelers: If you had told me the Giants were going to get to this part of their schedule at 4-2 I would have been happy. 5-1 with a half game lead — I’ll take it. That said, it’s very possible, if not likely, that the Giants won’t play another under .500 team until week 17 in Minnesota (or, God willing, week 15 in Dallas). I take the Giants primarily because the Steelers’ offensive line is nothing if not suspect and the Giants’ pass rush, while hurting, should be able to get to Roethlisberger all day long. All that said, I’d like someone to make a commercial where Roethlisberger and Eli make fun of Phil Rivers for being the QB out of that draft to not having a Super Bowl win. Giants outright.

Cincinnati Bengals +10 at Houston Texans: My “don’t take double digit spreads against mediocre teams” comes in to play here. Bengals +10… potential for upset of the week.

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 at San Francisco 49ers: One thing I discovered from watching the Niners: they’re really not horrible. They don’t scratch the surface of “good” yet, but mediocre seems like it’ll get you quite a way in the NFC West. Niners cover.

Monday
Indianapolis Colts +3.5 at Tennessee Titans: Yoof. Glad they waited until the end to drop this one on me. Let’s see… the Colts are showing flashes of brilliance coupled with weeks of terrible. The Titans are still undefeated. This seems like a perfect situation for a divisional upset. Colts outright.

Five Good Spreads
5 points - Bills -1.5 over Dolphins
4 points - Redskins -8.5 over Lions
3 points - Bucs +3.5 over Dallas
2 points - Browns +7 over Jags
1 point - Patriots -8 over Rams

I was watching Game 1 of the World Series when I finally determined I was over the season. It took some time. Not because I’m truly surprised with the results — the Mets weren’t good enough to be in play the last day of the season. While it sucked they didn’t get a chance to get hot and roll the dice in October, they almost definitely would have gotten knocked out by the Phillies in the NLCS. Regardless, I had to give myself enough time to put the season in perspective and get out of “blow up the team” mode that Francesa got everyone on following the loss. To be fair, he did have a point… how many consecutive years are you willing to watch the team gag down the stretch before you admit that there’s something wrong with this core of players. The stat-heads can argue all they want about how there is no such thing as “clutch” — but that doesn’t change that this team has a problem in a big spot. David Wright, who is an excellent hitter and a decent fielder, runs up 100 RBI and 30 HR every year, but the lasting memory of him this year is Dan Murphy leading off the bottom of the ninth with a leadoff triple and Wright unable to put a ball in play to win the game. The lasting image of Jose Reyes, after another stellar statistical season, is the chronic inability to hit in September.

Not to lay all of this on the offense. The bullpen surely deserves a bunch of blame… but it’s really difficult to put the bullpen losses in perspective when you come home for a 7-game home stand and just need to go 4-3 and instead go 2-5. There is also a reasonable amount of blames to go on the fans. The first game against the Marlins on the last weekend of the season played host to about 15k fans. Mets fan complain about Yankee fans a lot but, if there’s one thing you could say for them, if they were 1-game behind the Red Sox playing a home game against the Orioles on the last week of the season — there would be 53,000 people there from the first pitch to the last pitch. Shea was empty and the crowd was booing. The fanbase can defend it however they want, but there isn’t a defense.

So, where do we go from here?

Who’s Off The Books

Pedro Martinez: $11M
Moises Alou: $7.5M
Orlando Hernandez: $6.5M
Oliver Perez: $4.5 million.
For a total of about $30M

For all intents and purposes, we can call Billy Wagner “off the books” and presume the Mets are going to eat his $10.5M… we’re a big market team. Piss off Minnesota.

So, before the bonanza of signing starts let’s take a look at what went wrong and where we’re going. We’ll take a look at the 25-man roster at the end of the season, who will be gone, and who will replace them. At least I can think about it rationally now.

Walking from my office to the subway today, I started to overhearing a cell phone conversation going on behind me. The guy was somewhere in his early twenties and on the phone with his dad. His dad was obviously giving him crap about having not called in while which created the following exchange.

Kid (petulantly): Well, yeah I’ve just been busy.
*pause*
Well, my schedule’s hectic, there’s a ton to do.
*pause*
(defensively) Well, not everyone’s a double major in art school.

If the father did not respond with something along the lines of: “Yeah, some people go to actual schools to get real jobs” I’m supremely disappointed.