Archive for September 30th, 2008
NFL Picks 2008 - Week 4 Results
Last week I had to travel up to Albany because Copier Company X put on a booze cruise for our branch. While I was up there, I was talking with one of my friends how I can’t get better than 9 wins this season. That led us to decide that you could probably win a pool if you could average 8 or 9 wins a week and avoid the one catastrophic 4-win week that invariably kicks you out of contention that almost always occurs in the last four weeks.
I think I may have gotten it out of the way much earlier this year.
L/L - Chiefs +9.5 over Broncos, 33-19, Broncos cover: As I was filling my picks in to Sportsline on Friday, I specifically looked at this game and thought “man, this is the definition of a bad bet.” You had, likely, 80% of the money on the Broncos, a team that was obviously going to give a chirpy LJ the ball a lot against a team that really hasn’t proven it has a run defense, and a quarterback with inflated stats going on the road. Then I picked the Broncos anyway. Stupid.
L/L - Browns +3.5 over Bengals, 20-12, Bengals cover: The Bengals played the game of their lives against the Giants and lost. Cleveland was going to play the game of their lives against a team that had already played the game of their lives. Stupid again.
W/L - Jaguars -7 over Texans, 30-27, Jags cover: I didn’t expect to win this, so I’m fine with it.
W/W - Jets -3 over Cardinals, 56-35, Jets cover: Strap in, Favre-haters. The Favrelatio will be stunning this week. On the bright side, one former Shea Stadium tenant decided to send the old girl out with honor.
W/W - Saints -7 over Niners, 31-17, Saints cover: The Pierre Thomas pick-up for the Ms. L Superstars did not go as planned with his 1 run for 1 yard. However, We still won thanks to Jason Campbell and Santana Moss.
W/W - Panthers -7 over Falcons, 24-9, Panthers cover: Pick the Falcons at home. Pick against them on the road. Got it.
L/L - Titans -3.5 over Vikings, 30-17, Vikings outright: OK, I give up. The Vikings are apparently horrifically overrated and the Titans are going to the Super Bowl. I don’t get it.
L/L - Bucs -3 over Packers, 30-21, Packers outright: Apparently it’s time to stop picking against the Bucs, too.
W/W - Bills -9 over Rams, 31-14, Bills cover: pick against them until they cover.
W/W - Chargers -7 over Raiders, 28-18, Chargers cover: You know, I can understand that franchises can go through rough patches — but at least lose the game early. Is there any reason that the Raiders have to torture their fans like the Mets do?
L/W - Redskins +11 over Cowboys, 26-24, Redskins +11: Couple of things good for the Giants here. 1) The Cowboys are not nearly as indestructible as they’ve looked — their pass coverage, while serviceable, has no answer for a speedy receiver like Santana Moss. 2) This is the second straight game that featured a top ten back that the Cowboys couldn’t stop. Brian Westbrook broke through for 58 yards and 2 touchdowns in Week 2. Clinton Portis went for 131 yards last night. Romo also threw a backbreaking interception. In a shocking bit of deliciousness that surprised no one, TO decided to tell the media that he’s not getting enough looks. I’d like to thank Chris Collinsworth for pointing out that, in fact, 1/3rd of the Cowboys offensive plays went to Owens which he converted into 7 catches. In fairness, TO hasn’t turned on a quarterback in a full two years. He is due. On top of that, Tank Johnson was whining that the Redskins overcelebrated on the Star. Dear Lord, please let this team complete and totally melt down.
L/L - Bears +3 over Eagles, 24-20, Eagles Cover: In a bittersweet moment, I lost this pick but the Correl Buckhalter pick-up did help the Ms. L Superstars go to 4-0 on the season. The rogue GM from Copier Company X is running wild over the Large Accounting Firm. After watching this game, it occurred to me why Donovan McNabb is continually overrated. He just can’t get it done in the 2nd half.
L/W - Steelers cover: I watched this game. Ben Roethlisberger has just lost something. I don’t know what it is. He seems completely uninterested in playing football. Maybe it’s the plastering he took last week… I don’t know. I’m not buying the Steelers anymore on any spreads over 3 points. Unless it’s the Rams. I still the Giants got the best pick in that draft.
The Five Good Spreads
5 points: Bills -9 over Rams - W
4 points: Chargers -7 over Raiders - W
3 points: Packers +3 over Bucs - L
2 points: Saints -7 over Niners - W
1 point: Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs - L
As I suddenly remember why I stopped doing pick 5s.
Standings
Straight Up: 6-7 (32-28)
Spread: 7-6 (29-30-1)
Point Pool: 11/15 (28/60 - .467)