NFL Picks 2008 - Week 4
Funny thing happened when I complained about spreads. It turned out that all the spreads I thought were weird, I won and all the spreads I thought were logical I lost. I can’t imagine why I don’t gamble more.
Denver Broncos -9.5 at Kansas City Chiefs: At this point, you pretty much have to pick every team to cover the Chiefs until someone doesn’t, right? Broncos cover.
Cleveland Browns +3.5 at Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals just took a much better than the Browns Giants’ team to the limit. You would think that Derek Anderson would take this game and elevate himself to another level to keep his job. I don’t think he’s got it. I expect Anderson to go quietly in to the good night and Brady Quinn gets the nod in Week 4. Bengals cover.
Houston Texans +9 at Jacksonville Jaguars: Ugh. The Texans are a “I got no idea” at this point. This is their third straight road game and their home town is in pieces. They may or may not be playing in their home stadium next week. This could mean they’ve already packed it in for the year or it could mean they want to come out and prove something. A third straight road game is never easy. A third straight road game with drama seems almost impossible. The Jags should have Jerry Porter this week and Fred Taylor’s remembered that he’s a good running back. I think this is going to be ugly. Jags cover.
Arizona Cardinals +3 at New York Jets: The Jets got humilited by the Chargers last week but I think they respond at home. Jets cover.
San Francisco 49ers +7 at New Orleans Saints: My gamble on Reggie Bush because of Shockey blocking for him paid off for the first few weeks. Now, Shockey’s on his standard six week vacation and I don’t know how the Saints running game recovers from this. Lets hope “well” considering I had to pick up Pierre Thomas since both my starting running backs and both my backup runningbacks have byes on the same week. Poor planning on my part. The Ms. L superstars are trotting out Jason Campbell (Pennington’s on a bye), Pierre Thomas (Derrek Ward’s on a bye), and Correll Buckhalter (Willie Parker’s out) are tasked with defending the Superstars’ 3-0 record. All that said, I’m waging on the Niners run defense being… uh… porous. Saints cover.
Atlanta Falcons +7 at Carolina Panthers: I really don’t like this Falcons team. I don’t believe in them but I’m so used to not believing in them that I feel I just have to pick against them. Oddly, the Panthers have a pretty good chance to be in a really good spot just in time to get Steve Smith back. Weird league. Panthers cover.
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at Tennessee Titans: I still don’t think the Titans are this good. Vikings outright.
Green Bay Packers +3 at Tampa Bay Bucs: So, the Pack loses to arguably the best team in the NFL and the Bucs sneak past the Bears by their back-up quarterback throwing 67 passes. Somehow, this translates in to three points for the Packers? Packers outright.
Buffalo Bills -9 at St. Louis Rams: The Rams have to be on the list with the other “pick against them until they cover” teams, right? Bills cover.
San Diego Chargers -7 at Oakland Raiders: *mutter*. Chargers cover.
Washington Redskins +11 at Dallas Cowboys: Two NFC East teams + gigantic spread = easiest bet on the board, I think. Redskins +11.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Chicago Bears: Because of the trainwreck of my week 4 fantasy season, I had to grab Correll Buckhalter off the Free Agent wire on Friday since all my waiver claims got taken in front of me. I am not amused nor am I hopeful for my first ever 4-0 start. That said, this is falling under my NFC East Rule. Eagles cover.
Monday
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers: Speaking of things that worked toward my combined 3 free agent pickups this week, Willie Parker is sitting after the absolute raping the Steelers’ offense took at the hands of the Eagles. Odd thing: the Eagles’ defense isn’t all that awesome, which means maybe the Steelers were a bit over-rated against good teams. Problem is: we still don’t know if Baltimore is a good team. I say they aren’t. Steelers cover.
The Five Good Spreads
5 points: Bills -9 over Rams
4 points: Chargers -7 over Raiders
3 points: Packers +3 over Bucs
2 points: Saints -7 over Niners
1 point: Broncos -9.5 over Chiefs
Thank God the Giants are off this weekend. I have enough stress already.