Archive for September 19th, 2008
NFL Picks 2008 - Week 3
Last week was terrible, featuring only 6 wins against the spread and falling behind 8 games in both the cheap league and the expensive league. On top of that, I call out Cam and Joe and promptly fall in to last. Looking at this week, the spreads have gotten even more bizarre. I don’t know who is gambling on these games this year. The Giants as a 2 touchdown favorite? The Dolphins as a 2 touchdown underdog to the backup Pats? The Jets are a 9.5-point dog to the Cowboys with the Favre-on-Monday-Night factor. I’d like to think that everyone is doing crappy this year, but that’s just not true. Also to note: the only road favorite this week is Dallas… in Lambeau. Oy.
Sunday
Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Atlanta Falcons: This is the first of many point spreads this week that confused me. I know the Falcons aren’t good but the Chiefs get got crushed by Oakland and apparently has NO ONE on offense. Falcons cover.
Oakland Raiders +9.5 at Buffalo Bills: This was the first spread I looked at this week and was dumbfounded. Like, I understand that the Bills have been good the last two weeks and the Raiders have been questionable… but 9.5? Really? I’ll hate myself in the morning but I have to take them. Raiders +9.5.
Houston Texans +5 at Tennessee Titans: I recall that the team I could never pick correctly last year was the Titans. I’m happy to see this is carrying over in to this year. Titans cover.
Cincinnatti Bengals +13.5 at New York Giants: I find there to be something telling about my team when they are coming the reigning Super Bowl champions, won their first two games handily, are playing at home against a team who has put up a collective 17 points over two weeks against the Titans and Ravens, and I’m STILL really not all that keen on ever picking them to cover a spread this large. The worst part about this is that I KNOW they’re getting taxed because of the abuse they gave to the Rams last week. But I can’t take the Bengals. They are down a bunch of weapons, are on the road, and have no defense to speak of. Eli is getting the backup nod again in the Ms. L Superstar’s league and is staring down the barrel of being the most valuable Super Bowl MVP to ever be taken in the 10th round of a fantasy draft. Giants (ugh) cover.
Arizona Cardinals +3 at Washington Redskins: I’ve come to the conclusion that I’m only picking against NFC East teams with reasonable spreads when they play against other NFC East Teams. Redskins cover.
Miami Dolphins +13.5 at New England Patriots: Way, WAY too many points for what we know about these teams. There is not allowed to be a Patriot Tax when we still don’t know if the quarterbacks going to have random meltdown games. Dolphins +13.5.
Tampa Bay Bucs +3 at Chicago Bears: Back-up quarterback on the road, even if he’s Brian Griese, is not for me. Chicago covers.
Carolina Panthers +3 at Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are better than a 0-2 team and I still have no idea what the Panthers are going to do. The Vikings are due for some good fortune here. Vikings cover.
St. Louis Rams +10.5 at Seattle Seahawks: Two bad teams in the Cheaterdome. I don’t even know if the Seahawks have enough guys on offense to SCORE more than 10.5 points, much less cover a 10.5 point spread. Rams +10.5.
Detroit Lions +3 at San Francisco 49ers: I’m gonna go ahead and assume the Lions are not quite as bad as they’ve been playing and will take the opportunity to beat one of the few inferior teams in the league. Lions outright.
New Orleans Saints +4 at Denver Broncos: I don’t understand this spread much at all. The Saints have not fallen so far after one loss to the Redskins that they’re a 4-point dog to a team that should be 1-1. Saints outright.
Pittsburgh Steelers (pk) at Philadelphia Eagles: I have no idea what to think about the Eagles at this point. There is no way they’re as good as they played last week. On the other hand, the Steelers only managed to put up 10 against the Brows. I’m almost immediately violating my own “Only pick against NFC East teams if they’re facing other NFC East teams” but I guess I’ll adapt it to “Only pick against NFC East teams if they’re facing other NFC teams.” This is also a good first look at how Pittsburgh is going to fare as one of the only difficult AFC challenges the NFC East teams are going to face other than each other. Steelers.
Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 at Colts: The Colts lost their biggest asset on defense but the Jags appear to have no offense to speak of. Since I don’t expect Peyton to drop a 5 interception game in week three, there’s no reason the Colts should lose this. Colts cover.
Cleveland Browns +2 at Baltimore Ravens: The Browns SHOULD be able to bounce back this week. I though I learned my “always pick an 0-2 team playing a bad team in week 3″ lesson with the Dolphins last year, but apparently not. Browns outright.
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Green Bay Packers: I’m having a terrible time picking against the Cowboys in all situations this year. This also falls under my NFC East Rule. Cowboys cover.
Monday
New York Jets +9.5 at San Diego Chargers: I understand the spread. Vegas is banking on gamblers thinking “wow, the Chargers are going to be fired up after getting screwed last week.” They’re still dealing with LDT and Gates having some degree of injury and the Jets, honestly, aren’t that bad. I do know 9.5 is WAY too many points to have on this game. I guess I think the Chargers are going to come out and win this… finally… but the Jets will certainly be within 10. Jets +9.5.
5 points: Indy -5.5 over Jacksonville
4 points: Lions +3 over Niners
3 points: Redskins -3 over Cardinals
2 points: Browns +2 over Ravens
1 point: Chicago -3 over Tampa
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I made a pact with myself last year that I wouldn’t take teams with points unless I thought there was some chance for them to win outright. I picked way too many underdogs and points this week so I would recommend this card to nobody. On the other hand, I wouldn’t recommend picking exactly opposite of this card either.