TDL’s Sports, Wrestling, & Otherwise

Sunday
Oakland Raiders +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs: This seems like the most gimme spread on Earth. There’s nothing going right in the Raiders organization. The coach hates the owner, the owner hates the coach, they overpaid for a pretty bad starting QB, and they’re playing IN KC. I’ll give the Raiders a few wins this year, but they’re probably going to be at home. Chiefs cover

Tennessee Titans +3 at Cincinnati Bengals: The Titans responded to Vince Young’s ongoing mental problems by signing Chris Simms and creating the Holy Trinity of Suck in Crazy Vince/Chris Simms/Kerry Collins. One of two things happens this week: Crazy Vince continues his meltdown on the road and gets blown out huge or Crazy Vince remembers he’s Vince f’n Young and destroys the Bengals and reconquers Tennessee. As someone who’s dealt with clinically depressed friends… it takes a couple weeks for those meds to kick in. Bengals cover.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Detroit Lions: This is another strange spread. The Packers just decisively beat the Vikings… who are unquestionably better than the Lions. The Lions just lost to the Falcons of all people. Aaron Rodgers seemed like he pretty much answered the “can I slide in to the starter role and not look awful” question last week. I think this is a gimme. Packers cover.

New Orleans Saints +1 at Washington Redskins: Skins: Still overrated. Saints: Somehow still underrated. The Giants backed rushed for 150 yards last week and neither of them are as good as Reggie Bush. Saints outright.

Indianapolis Colts -3.5 at Minnesota Vikings: This is another Bizzaro world spread. Slow down, everyone. The Colts lost last week. Let’s not call the whole thing off yet. Colts cover.

Chicago Bears +3 at Carolina Panthers: It’s the upset special. Both of these teams overcame 9 point spreads to knockoff AFC heavyweights last week. That changes this game significantly. Both of these teams are suddenly playing for an unlikely 2-0 start to take in to their first divisional match-ups next week. I really have no idea. I’ll go with the home team. Panthers cover.

New York Giants -8 at St. Louis Rams: I hate when the Giants are playing against huge spreads because they’re a pain in the balls to pick. They retain their tendency to play down to competition. However, I’m presuming Eli’s going to take advantage of his fresh opportunity to captain Team Ms. L to the promise land of the Mysterious Accounting Giant Bowl. Also: the Rams are frickin terrible. Also: just throwin this out there. The Giants don’t have a particularly hard game until Week 8 vs. the Steelers. At what week will The Worldwide Leader start calling the Giants “a product of their schedule” while ignoring the fact the Cowboys have the same schedule? I call week 6. Giants cover.

Buffalo Bills +6 at Jacksonville Jaguars: I’m starting to feel stupid that I didn’t go with my original gut instinct of the Bills being the team out of nowhere. I mean, the Bills are at least as good as the Titans, right? The six-point spread wouldn’t be enough to get me to take the Bills if they didn’t look SO good last week. The Bills at least are going to keep this close. Bills +6.

Atlanta Falcons +9 at Tampa Bay Bucs: I’m picking way more “X to cover” spreads than I’m comfortable with this week. I usually hate doing that unless I can make a solid argument that the team can win. That said, I’m kind of nervous to think about the “2-0 Atlanta Falcons” and “rookie quarterback on the road.” Then again, it’s Tampa… not Philly. Falcons +9.

San Francisco 49ers +9.5 at Seattle Seahawks: Perennial disappointment Alex Smith continues to disappoint by going on IR for the rest of this year. The question here is: will the power of the CheatinDome be enough to counteract a crippled number of starters in a terrible division? I say that the Seahawks are not nearly good enough at this point to rate a 10 point spread. Niners +9.5.

Miami Dolphins +7.5 at Arizona Cardinals: I unfortunately didn’t see enough of the Jets/Miami game to see what kind of offense Miami was running and, shock and surprise, NFL.com’s game recaps kind of suck just saying “short” and “deep” instead of using those handy lines on the field. It looks like they actually did design the offense around Pennington’s strengths. Although, I was happy to see that Pennington’s ability to throw heart-breaking interceptions in the fourth quarter followed him to a new state. Quick note to Vegas: I’m never taking the Cardinals to win by more than a touchdown. Ever. Dolphins +7.5.

New England Patriots +3(!) at New York Jets: I was trying to remember the last time the Patriots were underdogs. I came up with the Super Bowl vs. the Rams. I am having a hard time turning down the Patriots and points even though I know I should. I mean, Jet fans have to have their souls crushed at least once this year, right? It’s just karma for being happy about the Brady injury. If there’s one absolute about the Jets is they crush your soul just as you get on board. Also, if you’re Bill Belicheck — who goes between reviled and overrated depending on who you’re talking to — isn’t this your chance to erase “overrated” from your resume? I have to do it even though I’ll hate myself in the morning. Patriots outright.

Baltimore Ravens +4 at Houston Texans: I never thought the Ravens would win last week. I figured the Texans would snap back a bit this year. I wouldn’t bet real money on this game in any universe because I have no idea what’s going to happen. Going with the home team. Texans cover.

San Diego Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos: Much like the Indy game… this spread would be a lot different if the Chargers won last week and Broncos didn’t destroy the Raiders. Let’s slow down here, folks. The Broncos destroyed the NFL’s version of the Knicks. The Chargers got surprised, but let’s not call the team out of it after getting shocked by an OK team. They’ll be ready to work this week. On the other hand, if the Broncos win this game, we’ll have to start taking them a little more seriously. Chargers cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 at Cleveland Browns: I didn’t buy the Browns last year at home and got burned for it. I can’t pick them this year either. Steelers cover.

Monday
Philadelphia Eagles +7 at Dallas Cowboys: The Eagles are going to continue to be hugely overrated because they crushed the Rams last week. No one will mention that they crushed, you know, the Rams. Giving the Eagles credit where it’s due, though, they looked looser and easier then they did at any point last year. I’m not a huge fan taking NFC East games over 3 points and I think the Cowboys are getting a few extra because of their buzz. Eagles +7.

5 point: Saints +1 over Redskins
4 point: Packers -1 over Lions
3 point: Colts -3.5 over Vikings
2 point: Chargers -3 over Broncos
1 point: Dolphins +7.5 over Chargers

I’m very glad I didn’t decide to enter a knockout pool this year. This week was one of the worst ever. One of two things would have happened — I either won have won in the first week by picking the Giants, or I would have gone the “safer” route and picked the Colts.

I hate yearly pools because the first week is entirely a crap shoot. My hope every year is to go .500 in week one and don’t dig myself a 10 game hole against Lois from the office who picks the pretty logos. I managed to do that this year in the straight up pool and actually managed to go 1-game over in spread pool — where of course someone managed to pick 13/16 correct even though this week featured six upsets.

W/W - Giants -3.5 over Redskins 16-7, Giants cover: This game went pretty much exactly according to plan. The Giants rode the banner raising ceremony out to an early lead and the defense held it. I’m selling myself that I’m OK with the Giants moving back to classic Giants, super-boring football. I look forward to being hated as much as the Spurs.

L/L - Ravens +1 over Bengals, 17-10, Bengals outright: I stick by my never pick a new coach and quarterback in week one theory, but I might have to re-examine it if they’re home.

L/L - Jets -3 over Dolphins, 20-14, Dolphins outright. Favre threw up two of his interception-ready balls but the Dolphins defense couldn’t come up with them. The Jets are going to be horrifically over-rated going in to next week (edit: the Jets went from 10 point dogs to 2 point faves against the Patriots at Giants Stadium this week. One point for me) and if they beat the Patriots there is amazingly going to be a Jets’ tax on spreads for a few weeks.

W/L - Patriots -16.5 over Chiefs, 17-10, Patriots cover: I’m one of the very few people in the world who don’t hate the Patriots. My old roommate was a Pats fan and I watched him suffer for years in the 1990s with a terrible team, so I couldn’t get angry at the Pats for finally getting good because he was happy about it. As such, I’m probably one of the few non-Patriot fans unhappy to see the balance of power in the AFC shift a bit. In fact, I don’t even understand the Patriots hate… they’re pushovers. As such, this is a wrath of God loss. There’s no bit of pre-game logic that could have predicted the end so whatever.

W/W - Steelers -6.5 over Texans, 38-17, Steelers cover: I didn’t see a second of this game, but no surprise.

L/L - Titans +3 over Jaguars, 17-10, Jags cover: The Titans scare and confuse me. There is no reason for them to be winning games and apparently their quarterback is clinically depressed and moderately insane.

L/L - Falcons +3 over Lions, 34-21, Lions cover. I’d probably pick with this same logic if you gave me this game 1,000 times.

W/W - Bills +1 over Seahawks, 34-10, Bills outright. The Seahawks have 4 injured receivers, a starting QB with a bulging disc, a fixed Super Bowl loss, a basketball team heading to Oklahoma City, and a historically underperforming baseball team. They’re getting ready to take over Philly as most depressed sports town.

W/W - Saints -3.5 over Bucs, 24-20, Saints cover. I’m probably not going to write a preview for every division, but my theory for the Reggie Bush thing is thus: he’s not as bad as he was last year and one of the underrated aspects of Jeremy Shockey’s game is run-blocking. They media focused so much on Shockey complaining about his touches that they ignored the reason WHY he doesn’t get touches. He’s a huge animal that opens up running lanes and knocks down defenders. The first week of my predicted Reggie Bush resurgence saved Team Ms. L from the Tom Brady injury.

L/L - Eagles -7 over Rams, 38-3, Rams +7. I blame myself for forgetting the Rams are terrible.

W/W - Cowboys -4 over Browns, 28-10, Cowboys cover: I’m not going to rush to any judgments on Cleveland’s season because they lost to one of the best teams in the NFC.

L/W - Panthers +9 over Chargers, 26-24, Panthers +9: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Nothing makes me happier than my fourth favorite team in the league getting upset at home. I expect LDT to be out with a classy injury by week 3.

W/W - Cards -3 over Niners, 23-13, Cards cover: Not reading too much in to this one either… the Niners are still terrible.

L/W - Bears +9 over Colts, 29-13, Bears +9: Did the Colts defense go and get old when I wasn’t paying attention or did the league just finally figure out that they play prevent for the entire game?

L/L - Packers -3 over Vikings, 24-19, Vikings outright: I guess the Packers organization knew something we didn’t?

W/W - Broncos -3 over Raiders, 41-14, Broncos cover: Surprisingly, the Raiders “let them tire themselves out” defensive scheme didn’t work out.

W - 5 point game: Giants -3.5 over Redskins
L - 4 point game: Vikings +3 over Packers
W - 3 point game: Cowboys -4 over Browns
W - 2 point game: Bills +1 over Seahawks
L - 1 point game: Bengals -1 over Ravens

Straight Up: 8-8
Against The Spread: 9-7
Weird Point Pool: 10/15.