New York Mets: The Rumored Options
With Moises Alou officially gone for the season, the Mets are rumored to be trading for every corner outfielder in the league. With gigabytes of Mets blogs out there and reams of paper in the New York Media… I wanted to sort through the most likely options to see who they could get in a trade and what it might cost them.
1) Barry Bonds: Let’s get this out of the way now: I don’t hate Bonds. Never have. I don’t think Bonds has done anything that any other guy in the league does. This has been a hotly contested topic between Hulse and me over the last few days. I am very much pro-Bonds. He is very much anti-Bonds. His arguments can be summed up thusly: 1) locker room cancer, 2) asshole, 3) pending prosecution, 4) 43, 5) Would probably only be good for 40 or 50 games. My arguments can be summed up as 1) For such a “locker-room cancer” you rarely see too many former teammates come out and say what an asshole he is, 2) Costs no talent off a barren farm system, 3) A guaranteed contract probably has a prison clause, 4) the mets have 1,000 reporters in their clubhouse every day anyway… they’re going to notice that they now have 1,200, 5) The Barry Bonds Show takes media pressure off everyone else.
Granted, if Bonds is looking for eight-figures this season and a guaranteed 2009, I say “enjoy retirement.” If he’s looking for a pro-rated eight figures this season and a club-option for 2009 with a buyout. Why not? Bonds OPSed 1.045 last year. Mets fans aren’t going to accept him? Please. If any fan base on the planet that would accept him it would be New York fans. His defense sucks? Over-rated. Between having one of the more mobile center-fielders in the league and stellar late-inning defensive replacements… I think the defensive issues can be hidden. Besides the fact: he was worth something like 100 runs for the Giants last year and cost them around 11 in fielding. +90? Should the Mets make it to the World Series, he’s a legitimate DH. Yeah, I’ll take it.
Pros: Barry f’n Bonds, costs nothing but money.
Cons: Ubiquitous “locker room cancer” which may be more a media creation than anything, defense, media feeding frenzy, really don’t need another lefty bat.
2) Matt Holliday: I covered this a bit yesterday. Matt Holliday is one of the more over-rated guys in the league right now. He is the definition of “ballpark creation.” In 327 games at Coors Field, Holliday has put up a line of .364/.427/.659. In 309 road games, his line evaporates to .277/.341/.450. This ends up giving him a pretty stellar total line of .321/.385/.556. As a double-bonus, the Rockies are going to want an absurd amount for him. This could possibly be the absolute worst thing the Mets could do. A top five center fielder and the organization’s top prospect for a ballpark creation and bottom five center fielder in the league. Sign us up!!!
For the record. If Carlos Beltran and Fernando Martinez are packaged up in a trade with Aaron Heilman and other prospects there is one acceptable deal: Ken Griffey Jr, Bronson Arroyo, and Adam Dunn with an extension.
Pros: none.
Cons: Ballpark creation, costs way too much.
3) Raul Ibanez: One of these years I’m going to have to pick a division and lay money on baseball prospectus’s predictions for each team. The Mariners turned in to a media sweetheart this year after the Bedard trade. BP was unimpressed, pegging them as a 76-win, third place team. I find it difficult to grade this trade because I honestly can’t ever remember seeing a Raul Ibanez at-bat. Apparently, he’s played a whole six games at Shea Stadium but I can neither confirm nor deny this. All I know about him is that he doesn’t seem to get injured much and has a decent bat. I can’t imagine that the Mariners would want more than a low-level prospect or two for him as he’s gone next year and I’m pretty sure they threw in the towel on this season, picked it up, and then threw it in again just to be sure.
Pros: Possible compensation round pick next year, low-cost
Cons: The Mets will absolutely re-sign him to a two- or three-year-deal if he has a remotely decent season, 36.
4) Randy Winn: Another pretty OK option. The only real problem I have with Winn (other than paying him $8M next year) is he replaces none of Alou’s power. The Mets have a plethora of soft-hitting left-fielders at the moment. There’s really no need of another one. Much like the Mariners, I can’t imagine that the Giants would want a lot for him. I’m pretty sure if you called and offered them one or two almost-ready-for-primetime prospects that they’d jump on it. The Mets have a bunch of AA and AAA outfield guys and the Giants would probably be OK with a couple of those for their impending awesome 2010 season.
Pros: Everyday player who will solidify the line-up, low cost.
Cons: No power, guaranteed next year blocks F-Mart.
5) Adam Dunn: This is the plan that I’m on board with. A trade for Dunn with an extension is the Mets’ best-case scenario. Dunn can cover the corner outfield position this year and replace Carlos Delgado next year. This also takes the Mets out of what is sure to be a ridiculously over-priced Mark Teixeira auction. The knock against Dunn is that he strikes out a lot and he’s an apathetic guy who “doesn’t play the game the right way” or whatever. For me, strike outs are not much different than a popout or 4-3 ground ball. As for apathetic guys… I tend to not hold that against people who have been mired on perennially crappy teams.
For a moment to vent: it bothers me to no end that Adam Dunn is dismissed as a product of his ballpark while Holliday gets a pass for this. Four seconds of research would dismiss this as Dunn’s home and road numbers are almost identical.
Pros: Addresses a lot of problems. Replaces Delgado’s lefty bat next year.
Cons: Unneeded lefty bat this year.
6) Bill Hall: The Brewers just made a trade for CC Sabbathia and they’re going to trade their primary 3B/utility infielder/play everywhere player to the Mets? For what? Unless the answer is “someone that helps them this year” then it’s the wrong one. Surprisingly enough, even small- or mid-market teams occasionally are in the playoff race and don’t care much about the Mets need of a replacement. The Brewers are going to want Aaron Heilmann (at the very least) for this deal to happen. Pulling Heilman out of the Mets bullpen will turn their pen into a joke.
Pros: Uh, righty utility player.
Cons: Never going to happen.
7) Jason Bay: I do not mind this consolation prize if the Adam Dunn trade doesn’t work out. Bay had an off year last season but seems like he’s back to normal. Very odd that Bay still has an extra year on his contract. It seems like he’s been dying a slow death in Pittsburgh. Although, I can’t assume that Pittsburgh would be very keen on sending any more talent to New York.
Pros: Righty
Cons: Expensive. With a cost-controlled year left, the Pirates aren’t just going to give him away.
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The guys saying the Mets don’t “need” another corner outfielder are kidding themselves. While I enjoyed the Angel Pagan Experience, the Fernando Tatis Experience, and the Endy Chavez Experience — I don’t have any illusion that it will last all season. I’ll be happy to go to war with what we have, but if they can pull a rental for prospects trade, I’d be more comfortable.