NFL Picks: Week 16
I’m going in to these last two weeks in better position in a pool then I’ve been in my life. There are currently 9 people in my pool falling betwen 128 and 130. I’m on the 128 end. Three of the annoying people in front of me have managed to just about match my score (give or take 1) for roughly, oh, the entire friggin season. Two weeks ago I had an 12 win week only to find out that I made up zero ground because the top person had 13… it’s maddening. Not only that, but someone else managed a 15 win week to pull up next to me. This must be what a playoff race is like. Usually by this point in the season I’ve faded and already started making golf plans. This year, I’m in the mix.
Thursday
Steelers -7.5 at Rams: They were shocked by the Jags (I wasn’t) but they’ll either return to form this week or turn the division over to the Browns. In addition to that: No Rams, none of the time. Steelers cover.
Saturday
Cowboys -10 at Panthers: Last year I had to wander around Manhattan until I found a bar that carried this game. It took me the entirity of the first quarter to find the Tribeca Tavern… which, hey, in retrospect I’m glad I found it. This year, I’m going to be traveling and I really couldn’t care less. I also couldn’t care because regardless of my selection the Cowboys will defeat me. It’s how they roll. Cowboys cover.
Sunday
Eagles +3 at Saints: The Eagles are going to love their new spoiler role and I think Donovan McNabb’s seen the billboards on the wall that say he’s in a walk year. They’ve knocked the Cowboys out of guaranteed first place and now they can knock the Eagles out of the playoffs entirely. While I’m at loathe to root for the Filthy Eagles for anything, give me points and an Eagles team that just beat the best team in the NFC and I see an upset. Upset of the week, Eagles outright, Saints out of the playoffs.
Giants +1.5 at Bills: This is an absolutely, positively, must win game for the Giants. If they lose this game, they face the possibility of having to beat New England for a playoff berth. Just once I’d like to have a Giant season under Coughlin/Manning where I can not be stressed and bummed for the last two weeks of the season. Giants outright.
Packers -6.5 at Bears: Pfft. Packers cover.
Browns -3 at Bengals: Not really sure where this spread came from. The Browns are now officially playing for the division and the Bengals can’t even beat the Niners. Browns cover.
Chiefs +4.5 at Lions: No Chiefs, none of the time. Lions cover.
Texans +7.5 at Colts: If the Colts are already playing their B-team because of injury, does that mean they’re playing their C-team now? Texans +7.5.
Raiders +13 at Jaguars: I don’t know what the “Win the AFC” bet is on the Jags right now, but I have to admit… if they were good, I’d be thinking about putting a little bit of coin on them. They can beat any team in the league and they’re built for Foxboro weather better than the Patriots. They’re a Wildcard 5-seed that’s likely to have a better record and team than the division champion 3 and 4 seeds. They’ll have to travel for three weeks due to the retarded rule that gives division winners home-field advantage over wild cards with better records; but if you gave me 8-1 or 10-1 that they’d win the AFC I wouldn’t write it off. As for this game, I expect to see something similar to what the Bucs did last week: blow out the competition to clinch the spot and give yourselves a week off. Jags cover.
Falcons +10.5 at Cardinals: I normally wouldn’t trust the Cards to cover a 10 point spread, but being as they’re home and playing a team that’s already making vacation plans, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt in this one. Cardinals cover.
Bucs -7 at Niners: 7’s a big spread when you’re playing your B-team on the road. Niners +7.
Ravens +9 at Seahawks: The good thing about the season being almost over is I can escape the Ravens for eight months. Ravens +10.5
Jets +9 at Titans: Gut feeling says Titans. Jets +9.
Dolphins +22.5 at Patriots: The Patriots haven’t gotten up to cover one of these 20 point spreads yet. There are multiple conflicting things about this game. First, I’m pretty sure the Patriots are going to try and get Brady’s record wrapped up in a neat little bow for him before they go to the Meadowlands… this isn’t completely ridiculous as he threw for 6 touchdowns in the Dolphins last meeting. Even still, the Dolphins managed to keep the last game almost respectable, showing up for 28 points. Had the spread in that game had been 22 the Dolphins would have covered by 1. Second, the weather in Foxboro is going to be a factor in January. Early forecast has it as cold and rainy. I’m going out on a limb and saying the Patriots are going to go 0-4 against 20 point spreads. Dolphins +22.
Redskins +7 at Vikings: I think you saw the Redskin’s horror movie last gasp. No way I’d take anyone against the Vikings at home right now… especially against a team with a running back that can catch a screen pass and doesn’t fumble. Vikings cover.
Monday
Broncos +9 at Chargers: There is no earthly way the Broncos should even remote cover this, so they’ll win outright. Chargers cover. 51 points.