TDL’s Sports, Wrestling, & Otherwise

I usually start looking at these cards on Tuesday when The Machine e-mails out the update that the new sheets are available. When I looked at this one on Tuesday, all of the spreads gave me a little bit of stress. In fact, there was only maybe one game that I definitely knew the answer to. Of course, after last week’s performance I have noplace to go but up.

In other news, in my friends pool, my friend’s 2-year-old nephew has me by one game. I hate spreads.

In better news, I’m still dominating Aaron and Joe.

Cardinals +6 at Redskins: The Cardinals are a quirky team this year. At this point, no one knows how to bet them because the starting quarterback is a mystery week to week. For me: the Redskins have the third ranked defense in the league and have given up 3.6 YPC this season. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have no answer for Clinton Portis. Only question: does that mean the Skins win by 6? I don’t think it does. Cardinals +6.

Falcons +7 at Saints: I knew when the Saints won in Seattle last week they’d be immediately over-rated and the lines would move to “they’re back” status. If the Saints lose last week, this is a 3 point line. Falcons +7.

Ravens -3 at Bills: Apparently, the Ravens still have the ability to hold back crappy offenses. Ravens cover.

Vikings +9.5 at Cowboys: If trends continue, it takes approximately two weeks to recover from getting your soul crushed by the Patriot Machine. This just means that, while the Cowboys normally would have taken this spread, now they won’t cover it. However, if they want to lose the game and let the Giants tie the division, I’m all for that, too. Vikings +9.5

Patriots -15.5 at Dolphins: I’ve seen this spread as high as 17… and with good reason. Simmons mentioned last week that the Patriots have a tendency to run up the score these days. They don’t dial it back at the end of the game when they’re up 10 or 14… this is what makes these spreads. I know that the Patriots are due, at some point, to not beat a team by 20 points, but I can’t see this as being the week… especially considering who they beat last week. This is the long way to say “I don’t know if I’m taking any team getting less than 20 vs New England.” Patriots cover.

Niners +6 at Giants: Hey, remember when Trent Dilfer was the quarterback of the Ravens and beat the Giants 34-7 in a Super Bowl? Remember how he had a brilliant defense and Jamal Lewis? Now he’s got the Niners defense and Frank Gore. I’d actually like to see the Giants sack Dilfer 20 times… minimum. I also think the Giants pound the Niners. Giants cover.

Bucs +2 at Lions: Can the Jeff Garcia bandwagon overcome the power of Jesus? I think it can. Bucs outright.

Titans at Texans: I wonder if Vince Young is still honored to be on the cover of Madden. Texans.

Chiefs +3 at Raiders: Tomlinson ran for 200 yards last week. I can’t see LJ not exploiting the Raiders run defense the same way. Chiefs outright.

Jets +6 at Bengals: Pennington is getting ready to hit both “playing for his job” and “playing for a contract” at the same time. Add to this a horrible run defense that even Thomas Jones should be able to exploit and Pennington looking to impress some people, I think this is going to be your upset of the week. Jets outright.

Bears -5 at Eagles: I loathe 5 point spreads. I really do, because I never know how to pick them… I know how to pick them even less when it’s too good teams. That said, the Bears defense is so much a shell of itself that the Vikings hung 30 on them last week. Bears +5.

Rams +10.5 at Seahawks: Well, last week’s Saints debacle kind of shook down what I think of the Seahawks this year. If they couldn’t take a struggling team and put them away at home, what does that say about their chances against the Rams? I’m relatively certain that the Seahawks are going to beat the Rams but this is one of those stupid spreads that I hate picking. My gut tells me that the Seahawks are going to blow the Rams out which, by extension, leads to our first fired coach of the season. Seahawks cover but goddam I think that half point’s going to bite me.

Steelers -3.5 at Broncos: Here’s another spread that confuses me. What have the Broncos done that they’re only a field goal dog to a team that’s struggled all season. I guess this falls under my “team on the road after the bye week” rule but that hasn’t been working out for me so well this season. Steelers cover.

Colts -3 at Jaguars: I don’t get this spread at all. I mean, I know the Colts have struggled a little… and by “struggled” I mean “beating teams by less than 10″. I’m still thinking the Colts are rolling to week 9. If the spread on this was 7 I’d be a little more careful. Colts cover… tiebreak 48; 27-21.

For the record, Hulse and I had one of our standard, Friday morning “trying to determine a bet for this game” conversations. How did people work all day in offices before instant messenger? Seriously.

Locks of the Week: Steelers -3.5 over Broncos, Colts -3 over Jaguars, Giants -6 over Niners.

Upset of the Week: Jets over Bengals