Archive for October 4th, 2007
East Coast Bias: New York Mets 2007
Last year, I specifically wrote the Post-mortem as soon as I got home from Game 7 of the NLCS. I figured by writing it right then it would be the most raw feelings and make for the best possible column. I figured it would be better without the rationalization and “We’ll get’em next year” crap that people spew when they’ve had a couple days to rationalize their feelings. I did it because there’s no other thing in sports as awesome as game seven of a championship series. I don’t know if there’s anything to compare it to for a non-sports fan. The batshit insanity of Shea after the Endy catch and the gaping silence after Beltran struck out are like nothing else. I’m sure there’s something it can be compared to but I don’t know what it is. One of the reasons I put this off for a few days because of the way I feel about it.
Nothing, really.
There’s a reason. Their slide started on September 13th, give or take. By September 17th, I’d stopped watching. Watching the ridiculous errors, the awful bullpen, and the starters getting lit up down the stretch wasn’t worth it. They were up 7 with 2 weeks left. I stopped watching because there was no reason to. They were going to win the division. They were up 7 with 17 to play. They were playing 7 against the Marlins, 6 against the Nationals, 1 against the Cardinals, and 3 against the Phillies. Even if they got swept by the Phillies again, they were closing their season with 14 games against sub-.500 teams. What was the point of getting worked up when they obviously were going to both win and clinch the division the last week of the season at home? When that got close, I figured, I’d grab a ticket and go to the clinch game and that’d get me back into it for the rest of the season.
Didn’t work out that way.
When the swept the Marlins, I figured that was the push. They’d turned the corner. They were giving up runs but the offense was doing what it was supposed to be doing. When they followed that up by getting swept by the Nationals at home, I started to get the creeping suspicion it was over. When they had a 1-game make-up with the Cardinals, I told everyone who would listen that it would certainly be apropos if the Cardinals knocked them out of first… which they did. After they went down by a game, I watched John Maine strap the team on his back and decide he wasn’t losing. That game pisses me off more than any of the others, because a pitcher that was a thrown-in guy in the Anna Benson for Jorge Julio trade picked up the entire team. They lit up the Marlins for 13-runs. THIS was definitely it. They turned the corner. They were tied for the division, Maine had fired them up with an ungodly pitching performance, they had Glavine on the mound yesterday who had been a great big-game pitcher for the Braves despite his 6-10 record, and they had hit Willis well this year. At the very worst I was signing on for the most convoluted tie-break in post-season history.
And then Tom Glavine showed up, got 1 out, and gave up 7 runs. The Mets played with so little fire that the Marlins pulled Dontrelle Willis in the 3rd. The team was packing their lockers by the 5th inning. And thus is my problem with Willie Randolph.
To start off, no, I’m not on board with firing him. I don’t think you should fire a manager 2 years in when 1 of those years involved a division. Willie has 3 shortcomings as a manager that drive me crazy.
- He gives guys more chances than they deserve to work through their problems. Guillermo Mota and Jorge Sosa should have stopped seeing batters with a lead when it became obvious that they couldn’t get any outs. The Mets had a pile of relievers and rookie starters in the bullpen. They should have been using them. I’m only half saying this because it worked for the Yankees, but the Mets had an exhausted bullpen and had an influx of fresh relievers in September. Why did he not use any of them?
- He’s not quick enough on the hook. I realize that Tom Glavine is a respected veteran and yadda yadda… but he has his days where he’s not on. There should have been a second starter warmed up and ready to go. Glavine should not have given up 7 runs before he was out of there. The Mets had NINE starters available if you include Pedro Martinez on 3 days rest. I’m not convinced that Maine wouldn’t have come in for another tangle. Willie should have had the hook on the top step of the dugout waiting for the first sign of trouble.
- He doesn’t appear to be much of a motivator. The team was falling apart for the last two weeks. They were making mental errors all over the place… base-running gaffes, errors, not running things out. Whatever credit you do or don’t give a manager, everyone can pretty much agree that a manager’s job is to keep the team focused and motivated for 162 games. Willie had a terrible time keeping the team focused this season. Through the first third of the season the Mets stayed in first because the division was so bad. Through the second third, they finally got into a groove. The team struggled and he couldn’t get them back on track. That’s not the mark of a great manager. I don’t know if it’s a respect issue or if he’s too friendly with the team or what it is.
So, while I don’t think Willie should be fired, I just really hope he takes a look at what happened to the team at the end of the season, figures out the signs, and prevents it from happening again. I have no idea what the Mets are going to do in the off-season to make the team better because they’re not a bad team now.
- Obviously work on the bullpen some. There’s not a ton they can do, though. Mota is signed through next season. Billy Wagner ran out of gas and he’s signed through 2009. Scott Schoenweis had an awful season and he’s signed through 2009. They destroyed Jorge Sosa’s trade value by trotting him out in a relief role that he was no good at. Aaron Sele’s likely gone. One could hope they could re-work Joe Smith and he’s not going to be one of those AAAA players.
- I’d like to see them keep Luis Castillo if they could keep him for a bargain. He fills that 2-hitter role tremendously and he’s a gutty (minority!) player who plays through injuries and is a perfect bunt/speed guy to be behind Reyes when he’s on. Met fans inexplicably moan about Castillo… in 199 at-bats for the Mets he put up a line of .296/.371/.372. He’s a speedy, league-average player with no power who gets the ball into play at least once a game and moves Reyes. As long as they pay him like that, I’d be very happy if they kept him. Jose Valentin’s option became non-guaranteed when he hurt his knee and was unable to make 400 plate appearances. This leaves the mets with two 2b prospects to shop around.
- They’d be retarded to let Marlon Anderson go again if he wants something reasonable to stay
- Moises Alou and Shawn Green… I have no idea. Green has a $10M option which seems like an awful lot to pay a guy who they’re planning on platooning with Lastings Milledge. Alou has a $7.5M option which seems like an awful lot to pay a guy for half the season. My balls out wet dream would be that the Reds decline Adam Dunn’s option and the Mets decline both Alou’s and Green’s options to pay Dunn and have Dunn, Beltran, and Milledge as the Mets’ outfield. I can’t imagine the Reds would be that dumb, though.
- Their rotation. Pedro, El Duque, Maine, and Perez are all back next season. Glavine has a player option that is guaranteed if he wants it. I don’t want the Mets to offer him any more money. He’s a league-average lefty making $13M next season. That’s plenty. Failing him, they have Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber to round out the rotation. If Pelfrey can’t get it together, try him in the bullpen. While I do think the Twins are going shop Johann Santana in the offseason, I don’t think the Mets have enough to offer them.
- Paul Lo Duca: I have no idea. I don’t know what he’s going to want. I do know that the people who think Ramone Castro can be the full time catcher are stupid. He spent a good part of this year hurt. I’d rather them not offer Jorge Posada a boatload of cash if the Yankees decide not to keep him.
- Carlos Delgado: They took on his contract and sent the Marlins a replacement level first baseman in Mike Jacobs. Delgado, this season, was the the equivalent of a replacement level player making $14M. Next year he makes $16M. There’s nothing they can do with him unless they send him somewhere with cash.
If I had to pick my target 25-man roster next year, within reason:
Rotation: Duque, Pedro, Maine, Perez, Humber
C: No idea. I’d be happy with Lo Duca for something reasonable over 2 years and Ramon Castro.
INF: Delgado, Castillo, Reyes, Wright
OF: Adam Dunn, Beltran, Milledge or Milledge, Beltran, Green
Bench: Marlon Anderson, Ruben Gotay, Endy Chavez, Carlos Gomez
Bullpen: Pelfrey, Feliciano, Heilmann, Schoenweiss, Scott Linebrink, Joe Smith
Closer: Wagner
So, what I’ll take away from this season is less than half the disappointment from last season.
Go Rockies.